Why are we not shooting off picks?
As fun as it is to talk about cars, albums, and etc., I have something that I think that has not been discussed.
While listening to Mgopodcast, they were lamenting the fact that (lack of) pick & roll effectiveness is one of the major reasons why this year's offense is worse than that of recent past. While they discussed a bit about why that might be so, I think they missed something that is very obvious; we do not shoot off the pick.
When Michigan offense was really cooking, Stauskas would receive a pick and if the defender trailed or went under the pick, Stauskas would just pull up and shoot a three. Because this was a very effective shot, the opponent set aggressive hedges and what not to try to minimize it, which caused space for the roll and easy layups.
When I watch this year's offense, I see almost no attempt to shoot off the pick, even when the defender goes underneath and there is a foot or two open space. I don't understand why we are not taking advantage of this opening when the other team is readily giving it to us. I would think Robinson would shoot close to 50% with the open space he has and when defense starts to over commit, it would open up other things. I am just not sure why this is not happening.
Conversely, we hedge everytime off the pick and because our centers are slow to recover (compared to Mitch or Morgan), our defense becomes discombobulated and open shots happen regularly off of them.
Has anyone else noticed this? Is there a reason why we are not shooting off the pick? Why are we hedging so aggressively when other teams are not?
I think MAAR has some potential. He's already improved both his shooting and his passing relative to last year, pretty dramatically. That both weaknesses have improved so much in one year is really impressive, but he started from a pretty bad spot and those are still weaknesses. Hard to get over the 2-star ranking and age issue when considering what his ceiling might be.
Zak - yes for sure. Similar to MAAR, he got better. Did it last year and again this year while taking on a steadily increasing role. I'd expect him to take another step forward next year... but by then he's a senior, so how big is that step? Big enough for him to take the lead role? OR are you better of shifting him back to a complementary spot for a younger player (like how Hardaway moved aside for Burke, to everyone's gain.)
Duncan getting to be an average driver? I'm doubtful about that one. He's 6'9 and 6'9 people who can drive past D1 players don't end up in D3, especially if they are lights-out shooters. He's not fast enough to drive by people and his lack of explosion leads to blocked shots at the rim. Maybe he can become a better passer though.
The other guy you can't entirely rule out is Walton. He has the tools, but just flat out hasn't shot well off the dribble and hasn't finished at the rim. His lack of improvement from freshman year isn't real encouraging but some people wait till senior year to make a leap.
disagree on your assessment. he grew like 3-4 inches his final year in high school. recruiting was already done by the time he graduated. he chose the D3 power vs a smaller D1 school. also, during the course of this year alone he has improved his handle and passing ability. and with his height, i could see him become a uthoff type player; likely not stauskus.
the guy still has two full years left. i expect a big jump this off season and i would guess he will be JB's biggest project.
In December Robinson had 18 assists and 6 TO. In February, 9 assists and 10 TOs.
He also went from 19 FTAs in January to 1 in February.
He played in 8 games in each of these 3 months
Perhaps his handle and passing have improved - but that theoretical improvement is not being reflected in stats.
....
He's not Utoff either. Diebler, Vogrich, Irvin are the comps people should be drawing from rather than all-conference players.
he took 15 2pt shots in non-conf play; 13 games. he took 49 2pt shots in BIG games (18). he is driving to the hoop much more in BIG play. his TO rate has obvioulsy gone up as a result. 21 TOs in 18 BIG games is not bad. and he is only a soph. he also attempted 24 FTs in BIG play vs 8 in non-conf.
He's getting worse at shooting, he's inefficient at the rim, and his ability to generate FTs or Assists isn't improving as the season moves forward. Calling this progress (because he's not JUST taking 3s anymore) is grasping at straws. Robinson is facing tougher defenses for the first time and he's struggling in every facet of the game. The question was if he could handle the conversion from D3 to D1 talent and so far the answer is not looking so hot now that teams know they have to lock him down at the 3 point line.
Typically with more drives to the rim, FTA would go up also. The UMhoops shot chart comparison is instructive: http://www.umhoops.com/2016/03/02/by-the-numbers-ball-screens-derrick-w…; The small increase in shot attempts at the rim isn't enough to justify the increase in TOs and the limited attempts at the rim are not going in often enough. Robinson does seem to be pump faking and settling for more mid-range shots (a logical reaction to tougher defensive attention at the 3 point line), but he's not creating a lot of offense for himself or others.
Robinson is in the same class as Walton and Irvin. He got to red-shirt because of the transfer, but he's not exactly a freshman in terms of untapped potential. For those that expect to see a Stauskas-like development, it's time for a reality check. Robinson is closer to Vogrich than Stauskas.
But yeah, his drop-off against better teams has been disappointing. My initial hope was that at 6'9", he'd be able to pull up and use his quick release to still knock down quite a few shots, even against better defenders.
But that is the thing. There is space to shoot. The defender is going under the pick. You can stop and pop and there is no one around you close enough to block that. But Robinson never shoots that jumper. If he tries and misses alot, I can understand. But he does not even try.
My hope for next year is that Michigan can play with Simpson and Walton at the same time quite a bit. I don't want to condemn Simpson by comparing him to past players, but I will say that I like him more and more as I learn more about him. The kid sure seems to bring some dog to the table, to borrow a Sam Webb term.
I also think it's realistic to think Wagner could break out. He has a pretty good excuse for this season given that he was adjusting to American college basketball and life in the US.
He also has the excuse of never seeing the floor. After the NC State game, where he flashed a lot of potential, he didn't really play. Disappointing, I would've liked to have seen more of him.
I hate to put my hopes in a freshman, but it's hard not see Walton, Irvin, and Robinson as better served as complementary players than lead-dogs.
Right now Michigan has 5 guys (Walton, Irvin, Rhakman, Robinson, Simpson) who COULD feasibly run the option but each lack something to make one feel real confident (respectively: finishing, passing, shooting, driving, experience). It'd be better if there were fewer options, for clarity's sake (on the coaches part).
All of that uncertainty would be manageable if Michigan wasn't so bad at defense and/or if the bigs weren't so soft and unrefined. At least we know they can all shoot, but that's all this team has right now.
I just don't know. On the one hand - yeah, those offensive outburst were impressive. On the other hand - there's not really a clear role for him on next year's team.
Donnal's a steady hand. Doyle's the only remotely physical player. Wilson's got more upside as a shooter and shot-blocker. Teske and Davis are bigger than all of the current guys and have a pretty good shot at starting as soon as next year, if they can just do pretty basic things within the offense. (I know Davis is playing at a low level, but watching the kid dunk over and over again, and then watching Donnal lay up uncontested shots that could be dunks and it's hard not to see a big difference.)
Wagner just seems like another 4/5 tweener that Beilein is inexplicably fond of. Granted, he's one with more scoring upside than anyone we've had since Smotrycz, but he's stuck in the middle between more experienced players and younger guys who better fit the team need.
In a world where Michigan had a roster of Morris/Douglass/Novak, they'd need a skilled scorer like Wagner. But in a world where they have Walton/Irvin/Robinson they need a Tyson Chandler type of center.
I think Wagner may head back to Europe, but if he doesn't I don't see a role for him beyond a change of pace from whoever emerges from Doyle/Teske/Davis. And that's after Donnal leaves.
I'm happy to be wrong (because I think Wagner would be fun to watch) but I can't get past the fact that Michigan needs defense FAR more than it needs another scorer from the Center spot. Wagner's upside on that end isn't real high.
if those guys can improve their 3 point shooting marginally, that would be huge. that way, JB could play 2 bigs at the same time when needed against bigger teams. they all have decent strokes, they just need to shoot 100+ baseline 3s a day this summer.
that goes for chatman too.
A) Michigan has plenty of 3 point shooting available.
B) Wagner/Donnal/Wilson can't guard opposing 4s.
C) Beilein's offense doesn't work that way
Sure, it'd be nice if Donnal hit 37% instead of 32% from 3, but it's not going to significantly affect all the other stuff going on.
No, almost every pick happens along the three point line. If you stop and pop, it will be a three pointer.
mid range scoring? Yes, I would. Have you noticed that all of our threes are contested and that the paint is always really congested. You don't have to guard Michigan at the free throw line extension, there is nothing in their offense that threatens you there. So you can extend your on ball defenders and have your bigs just defend the rim. Not all "twos" that are not layups are bad shots.
"Not all "twos" that are not layups are bad shots."
True, but most are bad shots. There is plenty of statistical analysis of expected value of a shot to back this up.
We also suck at off the ball screens. I can't completely blame the screener, but I want to. 1/2 of this is the guys running off the screens. They're leaving too much room between themselves and the screener to where the defender can just keep up. Drives me nuts. If we were capable of setting off the ball screens, we'd be better. But we can't and don't.
I watch other teams set lots of illegal (not called) screens against us, why can't we do the same? Take a chance until they start calling it. Seems like the refs call about 1 in 10 illegal off the ball screens. We should be doing this too.
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So, based on that logic, it's 100% on the guy running off the screen to do a good job. Not arguing with you, because that's important too and they suck at it. Either way, this is a problem that needs to be fixed if they want this system to work. I've seen a guy run off a double screen and his guy never gets touched. How is that possible?
this foul avoidance at the C and SF position boggles my mind. we literally have 20 fouls to give at C; and none are tim duncan. also, we have 10 fouls between dawkins and robinson. i couldn't care less if one of them gets their 3rd foul. those two are practically interchangeable; good shooters with poor defense.
let these guys play more aggressively out there; especially near the rim.
But if one of those guys heats up, you absolutely gotta ride the hot hand. Definitely no auto-bench, unless maybe for a 3rd first-half foul or a 4th relatively early in the second half.