Is overtime really that random?
Michigan is now a very impressive 10-2 in overtime games. The games:
2000 Orange Bowl vs. Alabama - win
2002 PSU - win
2004 MSU - win (3 OT)
2005 at MSU - win
2005 at Iowa - win
2009 at MSU - loss
2010 Illinois - win (3 OT)
2012 Sugar Bowl vs Virginia Tech - win
2012 Northwestern - win
2013 at PSU - loss (4 OT)
2013 at Northwestern - win (3 OT)
2015 at Indiana - win (2 OT)
Lloyd Carr went 5-0 in overtime; RichRod 1-1; Hoke 3-1; and Harbaugh is now 1-0. By every measure we've done well in overtime. We've never lost in it at home (4-0) or at a neutral site (2-0), and even on the road we're still 4-2. When it goes beyond the first session, we're 4-1.
Should we assume OT is actually a 50-50 proposition and that Michigan has been extremely fortunate? I'm not sure. I don't have the numbers for other teams, but just in general when I'm watching, it seems like the favored team usually ends up winning. I think OSU has an overtime record similar to ours, for instance. I would be curious to see what the records are for more teams.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
Very interesting. So Michigan is in fact one of the best in OT. USC is pretty shocking, although I wonder how many of those games happened under Carroll. Same for Bama and Saban.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
Saban is 2-2 at Alabama in OT games. 2-1 against LSU and a loss in his first year to Georgia.
Carroll was 1-2 at USC in OT games. Win vs Oregon State in his 1st year. Loss to WSU (who won the Pac-10 that year) his 2nd year, loss to Aaron Rodgers and Cal his 3rd year.
USC actually has only played ONE OT game in the 2004-2014 era (loss to David Shaw and Stanford in 2011).
November 15th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^
now we understand why Belichick decided to try to win the game in the Super Bowl against the Rams?...although in the pro game, there's also was the sudden-death nature of OT to comsider.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^
Statistics is very simple.
Let me break it down for you.
How many outcomes are there? There are two. You either win or you lose.
Therefore, 50/50
Mathed.
/s
November 15th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
That's a good one. The assumption is that playing defense first brings the advantage. I think there is some truth to it, if only because the coach on offense first will often settle for a field goal. But I'd like to know what the data says.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 15th, 2015 at 9:20 PM ^
as you might think. iirc, the first possession of OT in the NFL was only winning at somthing like 52% of the time under the then-existing rules. i think he took the wind that game in OT when it was howling, thinking that might be worth more than the 2% difference.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
ehhh, I look at it more like we were the better team in most of those games and we underperformed by playing down to the other team's level for 60 minutes. But with more time the better team prevailed as they should.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
It favors whichever team is better in the redzone. Michigan this year excels in the redzone, and in general also did so under Lloyd Carr. Teams that have good redzone offense and defense are going to do well in OT, because OT is just one giant redzone session. It also tends to favor teams that have reliable kickers.
November 15th, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 15th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
November 16th, 2015 at 7:02 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 15th, 2015 at 5:52 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 8:18 PM ^
The rush on ER's in Michigan and Ohio alone (and, really, throughout the country...)
November 15th, 2015 at 7:30 PM ^
Overtime itself is not random or 50/50 but it is subject to variation in outcomes that are not representative of a full games' play in that over the course of a game the better team all things being equal should win most of the time...in OT just like in the playoffs a small sample size of posessions is not necessarily representative of a team's play as a whole.
November 15th, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^
There is nothing whatsoever wrong with a tie.
Now get off my lawn.
November 15th, 2015 at 8:41 PM ^
Harbaugh's general strategy is to beat the other team senseless throughout the game, don't worry about home runs.. keep the defense fresh and pound the shit out of theirs.
Before we took a few big hits with defensive injuries, this strategy worked. It was working against Utah until the pick 6 -- virtually their entire defense had their hands on their hips between plays and I truly believe that game was a win if not for the pick.
Sparty was looking rough, that game was won. Football happened.
If someone is going to reply that "This is why there are 60 minutes, not just one fumble or one pick decides the game" -- I am not arguing that. I am arguing that the play style of not caring about putting up points as much as pounding the opposition into submission thereby making it easier to close out the game IS a 60 minute strategy. It just happened to not work out for us twice this year, and the one with sparty was something as freak-show-like as Bama's iron bowl loss on a FG attempt.... except Harbaugh's call was way more intelligent.
Sparty hurts worst because now the team does not control it's own destiny
I'm sure Richrod enjoyed beating Utah last night more than the average win.... But we need ND and MSU to lose and we need to win out. I truly believe this team is capable, but I would actually be confident going into the next two weeks if there weren't key role players that are out on defense. Hopefully we get more depth there, because when the D is clicking, it's a sight to be seen. Hell, we have two goal line stands for wins this year. That's pretty fucking cool. We even have saved the season with a last second 4th down pass. This team is good, and already has exceeded expectations no matter what happens in the coming weeks.
Keep their D on the field, pummel the shit out of them .... slowly.
November 16th, 2015 at 3:07 AM ^
The sample size is unfortunately small for good comparisons, as most teams have only a couple of OT games a year at most. But I would like to see statistical analyses. One would predict (not sure in what order, or the interrelationships beween variable) but the record in OT might favor the team:
- with better performances in the red zone/goal line (Offense and Defense), thoughout the game/year
- with a better, less depleted and less exhausted (i.e. better depth and conditioning) defensive unit
- that scored last (momentum, tired defense again)
- with better/more consistent FG kicker (can make kicks, have more confidence in that kicker, giving more playcalling options in red zone)
-
home team (throwing into an end zone more familar; if they lose the coin toss, can choose end with more crowd noise)
One aspect about college OT that surely affects things is the team that is on D at the end of the 1st OT is usually on D at the beginning of the 2nd OT period.