OT: Kentucky Derby
Same here for Twinspires. And though I haven't used them recently, xpressbet is also good in my opinion.
The one thing I would like to see one day is a jockey attempt to get back on mid-race - not necessarily at the Derby, but in any race. It looks something like this in my mind (not what is happening here, of course)....
I have done well in the derby the last 4-5 years. This year is a completely insanely deep and talented field. Any of the top 4-10 horses would be top 3 choices any other year. This changes how you hve to play it, but to be honest, I'm not totally sure how.
To be clear, this is not just my opinion. People who have been in the game much longer than me are making claims of "deepest and most talented field EVER".
The same goes for American Pharoah, the morning line favorite. I am of the opinion that he could be one of the best horses of the last 20-30 years. A lot of this is based on "potential" and what we haven't seen him have to do yet, and how effortlessly he has done what he has been asked to do so far. Once again, not just my opinion, though you'll find plenty of those that either agree or disagree.
I am typically a value player and don't bet favorites to win, so to get involved with AP, I'll be using him in Exactas, Tris, Supers, maybe the daily double. Singling him on top will allow the bettor to go deeper in subsequent positions.
I'm running a superfecta pool this year. This is by far the worst year to start that up, after spending 5 hours debating the horses and building the ticket last night with 4 people total of the assembled group. The remainder of the group is just gambling and donating to the cause and hoping we get a winnner.
I won't take time to list it, but our superfecta ticket costs $1344 and has 4 horses that could win it, 7 horses to come in 2nd, 9 horses to come in 3rd, and 11 horses to come in 4th. This was such a tough year to separate the differnt levels, almost impossible. Hopefully we win.
Knowing that i'm invested in the super, i will play the win pool and the exotics to "hedge" the group superfecta picks. That will slightly affect my typical strategy, but have to adjust on the fly this year.
For anyone that wants to know my gerneral feelings:
American Pharoah is a beast and possibly a generational horse.
Dortmund is really freaking good, but I can pick more holes in his career and make excuses for AP (Just personal preference - I can't argue with anyone that thinks Dortmund is better).
Carpe Diem is also really good, but not as good imo, and has enough red flags where I can toss him from top consideration.
Frosted is my value play of this race, hoping for 15to1 odds for my win bet.
Bolo is my live longshot. Hoping he stays at 30-1. So don't you all go out and bet him now, you hear?!?! In my opinoin his turf form transfers very favorable to churchill downs, and he has the distance, is a really nice turf horse with a non-famous but very good trainer, and he will run a huge race on saturday while mostly overlooked from public if he doesn't have a lot of trouble.
In exotics, I will probably toss Dortmund (you have to pick one of him and AP to really bet well and spread everywhere else) and use AP and Frosted on top.
I will have Mubtaahij, Materiality, Bolo, Upstart, Firing Line, Far Right underneath my top 2 in some form or fashion filling out exactas and trifectas.
I realize i've gone on and on about horse racing on a michigan sports blog. My apologies. I could keep going as I've picked this race apart for 3 weeks now... but I'll stop. If anyone has any q's, etc. I love getting other people interested in this great game, and am happy to oblige.
Best of luck to all bettors, and all horses/jockeys during the greatest 2 minutes in sports on Saturday!
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Hey Brew City. I usually like to see the chart with horses last race splits in the final 1/8 and 3/8. Ones that run under 13 and 38 seconds I like to focus on. Have you seen that anywhere?
I love that angle and it is important to me for the Derby. One of best ways to know if a horse wants more distance after their 1 1/8 mile prep.
There are some weird situations this year for horses that don't qualify based on that angle:
Dortmund didn't pass either test, (missed by .2 and .1 seconds I believe) though, he was clearly geared down at the end. For the record, that angle doesn't take into account whether they won in hand easily and were saving some energy for derby, or, whether they were being whipped and ridden very hard to finish. For instance, American Pharoah and Frosted both passed this 13/38 test, despite them appearing to just be out for a jog coming home the last 1/8 mile or their races. That was impressive to me. Think of it whatever you will. Dortmund is a damn good horse, i'm not trying to say otherwise.
Materiality and Upstart came home incredibly slow in their FL derby and didn't pass either 13/38 test, by close to more than a secoind I believe. But the Gulfstream Park surface was dreadfully slow and tiring for that race; evidenced by Materiality getting a 110 beyer speed figure for that race despite it being 2 seconds slower than some of the other preps at same distance at other tracks.
Once again, the angle doesn't take these things into consideration, and says you should chop these 3 horses, period. I tend to give these situations a bit of a break due to circumstances, but i would use this as a "tie-breaker" or sorts if I got to that point between these horses and others.
I haven't seen the list on line - I made my own list, which I currently don't have in front of me, from looking at the past performances and figuring out the times for last 1/8 and 3/8 of mile from their PP's from last 1 1/8 mile prep race (the only situation this rule applies to - fyi Mubtaahij does not qualify as his last 2 preps were 1 3/16 miles).
When you look at their splits for the final prep, subtract finishing time from 2nd to last listed time for last 1/8th, and take finishing time minus 3rd from last listed time for final 3/8ths. If the numbers are way off from 13/38, you know you've used the wrong numbers. All the horses will be close, generally, and this is a matter of 10ths or 5ths of seconds.
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definitely a passion of mine, and I do enjoy writing. To be honest, I had never considered the possibility of starting my own blog and wouldn't know where to start, but you have me intrigued... thanks!
brew city what are your thoughts on Danzig? Washington post had an interesting article on the derby today and he was there choice due to his pedigree
His typical running style would demand a hot pace up front. Happens often in Derby. I personally don't think this year's pace will be breakneck by any means, as many others seem to think, but guessing that can be tough as it only takes one horse to press too early.
He is bred well, he has worked out well all week, and churchill downs is considered his "home track", and he's very comfortable over the surface and with surroundings. If he gets a good trip and things setup for him, he certainly has a chance to be passing tired horses at the end to get up for something.
I will tell you, he was the last horse we crossed off from superfecta pool, and for that reason he is haunting me.
A lot can happen and you have to take a stand at some point.
Here, Here. Amen to that. It's hard. But ever since i've committed to taking stands against horses and trusting in my handicapping, I've become a better player.
1. Have an opinion based on sound principles
2. Take a stand based on this opinion
3. No regrets
(EDIT) 4. Don't ever talk anyone else off a horse, and conversely, don't let anyone talk you off yours. I learned this the hard way with my wife, who won't let me forget it, EVER.
Doesn't mean you can't learn from your mistakes and analyze where you went wrong with the added benefit of hindsight.
Example: The best bet I've ever made in my life, I lost. I would make that same damn bet again if given the chance. This is horseracing for goodness sake, we will be wrong, and quite often at that.
Plenty of bad bets I"ve made have won, especially when I was first getting into this, and quite frankly that was bad for my development as a horse player. Took me a lot longer to figure out steps 1-3 above.
I'll be at Potawatomi Northern Lights Theatre for the day of racing with some guys from our more hard core group of players involved in the super.
You sound like someone I could have a drink with and enjoy talking some Michigan sports and horse racing.
Let me know if you want my email or anything. Not trying to be a weird internet creeper or anything haha.
Secondary win bet is Mubtaahij
Superfecta: Frosted, Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, and Mubtaahij
I've got it boxed and smart played it for a cheaper ticket
I've never followed horse racing, but from a sociological standpoint it's fascinating how there is all this buildup at the stadium for hours and then the actual event is over in a couple of minutes. It seems so strange to me.
There are 13 races give or take on Kentucky Derby Day. Many of them are Graded Stakes races, which are the highest class of racing. G1's are the highest (Think Derby, Preakness, Breeders Cup), then there are G2 and G3.
Regardless, it is rare to have so many Graded Stakes races on a single day of racing, Friday Kentucky Oaks day is very similar but only 120-130k people show up. So it is one of the best days of the year if you are a racing fan.
Dortmund. Any blood of Big Brown is a rooting interest of mine.
If anyone is looking to get a good experience at a race track, I highly recommend Saratoga. Not too crowded unless it's Travers day, the weather is great for horse racing.
The link below is for a guy who owns horses down in Louisianna and does a Kentucky Derby field analysis/letter every year. It's always a good read. I recommend reading the whole post but at the bottom he has the field analysis and his picks if you want to skip it.
innisfree.org