Michigan Football Confessions: I Was Wrong

I was wrong about this season.  But I was right about David Brandon all along.

I thought it was a woman. #ForeverScarred.

Yeah, me too. These past three seasons have been one long "Don't-taze-me,-bro!" session. But the tazing just doesn't stop. So who could blame us for our protective delusions?

I was too optimistic to start the season. Now we are in Michigan purgatory with a single light far, far above our heads in a dark pit. That light is Cleaning House. It's all I have to hope for.

I was in the 9.5 wins camp. But, in our defense, we've seen three things this season that even the most ardent Brandon/Hoke haters hesitated to predict: 1- a 5th year senior at QB being a huge liability. Seriously, with freshmen winning the Heisman and OSU replacing Braxton Miller at QB behind a new o-line and not missing a beat, did anyone honestly think Devin would be this inconsistent or give up this many turnovers? Doubts about our o-line I can see. The QB being our biggest liability on offense? 2 - the worst pass defender on the field is the returning All-B1G cornerback. Are you shitting me? Countess can't play man-press to save his life?! I defy anyone to show me their pre-season post predicting that one. 3 - continued atrocious luck with fumbles and recoveries. Other posters have shown the math behind fumble recoveries being luck. Since 2011's ridiculous good luck, we are now on the third season in a row of having a stupid-bad plus-minus ratio of fumble turnovers. Hell, I figured with just average luck on fumbles we'd see Michigan with a couple more short fields, and our opponents with a couple less. Nope. So, yeah, we're a lot worse than most of us optimistic, Hoke-tolerant fans expected. Shame on us for not noticing most of the players in Hoke's classes don't seem to progress at all from their freshman to their senior year. But this shit?! No flippin' way anyone would have thought we'd stink for THESE reasons!

I thought we would compete for east division with 9-3 or 10-2 record. Thought the offense would flourish and defense improve. High hopes for special teams with Norfleet and Peppers returning kicks.

Well, now we are trying to be the best of the bottom of the league. No improvement in any unit, regression in all but defense.

I thought we had the athletes(still do), thought Borges was the offensive issue.

I was wrong, wrong, wrong. We are farther away from competing for championships than we were four years ago.

Predicted a ten win season, and thought predictions of seven wins and lower were ridiculous. Now I sit outside of the principal's office, awaiting my 3:30PM Saturday punishment to be delivered. I never expected to dread a Michigan football game like this for a long time. What a sad state of affairs!

I don't think anyone has to apologize for preseason optimism, and even getting on the case of those who were pessimistic then, that's to be expected to an extent. But when some of us pointed out early this season that this team looked really bad in victory, and atrocious when we lost, we were still torn apart. I was called a "troll" for pointing out that the Miami win exposed this team and predicting we would lose to Utah, Rutgers would give us a game, and we'd be lucky to go 6-6. Naive optimism on my part. But that Miami game was when my maize and blue glasses fell off (they were still on after Notre Dame, sort of, because ND is a really good team).

 I can always understand and accept optimism about the team. What I can't understand is the need to ignore what happens on the field and defend the coaching staff to the point of insanity: one person who has responded to this thread earlier, actually criticized me by pointing out that a coaching staff that includes Nussmeier and Mattison cannot be called incompetent. Well, I think I'll let the team's performance speak to that. 

I thought 10+ was possible.  Everything was going to gel this year.  Possible new-offense stumble at ND my biggest concern.  The usually critical Mattison was quite positive - the attacking D would dominate.

I was very high on the Hokester.  He was a "turnaround" guy, and therefore the W/L record didn't bother me.  He bled maize and blue.  Former players loved and endorsed him.  He brought in Mattison.  He exceeded expectations in 2011.  With the quality recruits he'd assuredly get (cuz, Michigan!) - watch out!

I bought all of the rationalizations as the program regressed because I wanted to believe he was still the guy.  I didn't think the problem could be player development because you don't go 12-1 in your 6th year (Ball State) without the capacity to develop players, right?

2013's goat was Borges - I was fine with that - though many questioned Funk.  Funk's stints prior to Michigan were Colorado State (4 yrs), then with Hoke at Ball State (1 yr) and SDSU (2 yrs).  Hard to assess his development skills in those Hoke years, but his 4th year at CSU was not flattering - average rushing game, gave up a conference-worst 35 sacks. 

The glaring development weaknesses on this team are OL and QB.  Hard to judge Nuss too harshly at midseason of first year in light of that.  The O has been improving.  

If Funk were a liability, he'd have been let go too, right?  An ESPN article a couple weeks ago (MGo thread topic) on Jim Harbaugh, told of the high importance he placed on maintaining a quality staff, having made staff changes even following years of (W/L) improvement.  Contrast that with Hoke.  I think this is Hoke's biggest liability.  He's either blind to the development issues, or is too loyal/non-confrontational to make necessary changes.  Either way...not good. 

I'd love to hear an honest assessment of the program from Nuss.  He just left arguably one of the best coaching staffs in CFB.  I'm sure he's made some observations.

I figured we'd be 8-4, maybe 7-5. I commend most here for their optimism headed into the season. I sure didnt predict the inconsistency at qb, and that has been, along with our terrible turnover ratio, the biggest problem for us this year. On the other hand, I expected a poor offensive line due to the age, inexperience, and change in system. We still cannot run the ball like we should. I do see improvement, at least. Given those issues I believed we'd lose on the road to osu and msu. I figured nd was a tossup, but i underestimated gholsen (and overrated Gardner) I figured utah would be a close game that we could lose, especially early in the season given the oline and following ND. I didn't even consider we could have a rough game against miami at home. Or imagine that we could lose to Minnesota at home. I certainly didnt see getting blown out by utah and the gophers at home. It really hurts to see them play so badly at home, and to think that even my 8-4 prediction could be so far off the mark. So we are way off the mark. Way way off atnthis point. If we can get the offense rolling some, I think there is a shot to beat Staee this weekend. While I anticipate getting soundly beat in Columbus, the rest of the games are very winnable, IF, we can make serious progress offensively. Without it we will be fortunate to go 6-6.

...but injuries to Peppers, Taylor, and Morgan have been significant problems.

Imagine our man coverage with Taylor and Lewis on the outside with Peppers at nickel.  

I know we've struggled with bump man and also receivers getting separation, and those things are best worked out in 1-on-1 period in practice.  But when both of those units are subpar, it has a spiraling effect.  DBs perfecting their technique against WRs who can't separate lulls you into a false sense of confidence.

Also (here comes the I-told-you-so part), I said back in August that, having had a heavy emphasis on bump man when I coached, it usually took a full year of seasoning before a player was really good with his technique.  Two things with that: one, I used the word usually, and two, guys who are immensely talented can sometimes make up for technical shortcomings.

Also, I don't know exactly what's going on with Ben Gedeon, but I thought he would be an all-B1G performer this year.  That kid is the best natural tackler I've seen at Michigan in a lot of years, maybe ever.  However, when pressed into duty against Ohio last year, it seemed like he was in the wrong gap a lot of the time, hence Hyde's big day.

Now, I don't know if it's a seniority thing (though I guess not based on the coaches' comments and Peppers starting from day one), an attitude thing (where he's not mature enough to understand the importance of mental preparation), or a football IQ thing.  And while I think Bolden, Ryan, and Ross have been fine to good, having a mistake-free Morgan and a gap-sound Gedeon would add quality and depth.

for whatever reason when I am in a certain mood I reference certain thoughts/feelings I once had from various pop culture.

This is what I have for this week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeNBJ5o-b7s

I got into a huge twitter fight before the season. He thought we would lose to Rutgers and that Michigan would finish 5-7. The guy is just the most negative sports fan for any team (Tigers, Lions, Pistons, Red Wings, Whitecaps, GVSU, any team in Michigan) and said Michigan would finish 5-7. I thought no way in hell. There's so much talent on this team it should be 10-2 or 9-3 with the only losses to MSU, OSU and maybe a random road game in there. After the Utah loss, he was already telling me told you so.