B1G West coaching change discussion
It looks like the B1G West is suddenly starting to stock up on some pretty good coaches at just about the time that we will probably be doing away with divisions. I'm not a fan of Bielema, but it's impressive what he has been able to do at Illinois in just two years. Now we have Luke Fickell going to Wisconsin, Matt Rhule in at Nebraska, and it also sounds like Purdue was willing to throw a bunch of money at Brohm to keep him, so maybe they'll open up the checkbook to make a good hire.
So a few questions for a relatively slow day on the board:
- Which, if either, of these new coaches will be able to have the biggest impact in a short amount of time?
- It seems that one of the biggest factors holding the West back has been the lack of recruiting compared to the East. Will either of them be able to close this gap?
- Who should Purdue go after? Then who will they go after?
Bonus questions: Which of the non-B1G coaching hires will be most successful? Who is most likely to flame out? Here are some of the options to choose from:
- Deion Sanders → Colorado
- Hugh Freeze → Auburn
- Jeff Brohm → Louisiville
- Tom Herman → FAU
- Kevin Wilson → Tulsa
We know Biff Poggi is going to be successful, so no need to even talk about that one. Good luck coach and thanks for your service!
December 9th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
AAC is going to be interesting with the 6 new schools. Like their previous expansions, there will be some programs (Cincinnati, UCF) which seize the opportunity and launch to new heights, and others that languish for the most part (South Florida, Temple, Tulsa).
Traylor and UTSA seem like the next Cincinnati/UCF. Traylor's going to get other opportunities, but I wouldn't be shocked if he stayed there for the next 5-10 years. He's basically spent his life in Texas and he can really build something there.
Dilfer and UAB is a lot like Deion and Colorado. Either will be a disaster or a huge success. No in-between. If it's a success, then there's the potential of Tuscaloosa trying to undermine them yet again. UAB has some rather unique issues they have to deal with, to say the least.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
Yeah the Dilfer hire was puzzling, especially for a program that has been sneaky good at times. He has a Super Bowl ring but do most kids even know who he is?
December 9th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
Watch for Dan Mullen possibly to Purdue?
December 9th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
That would be a great hire.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
With two B1G teams in the CFP and Penn State playing in the Rose Bowl, this B1G conference has become VERY attractive. So, anything's possible. How much would Dan Mullen cost Purdue and can they afford him? Then there's the Monken, from UGA possibility while he'd cost a little less, The Boilers will have to fork over a lot of $$.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
Fickell might be likeliest to achieve immediate success, given Wisconsin's advantages, his own and their history.
Freeze would be the coach who I most hope falls on his hypocritical, moralizing face.
As a side note: If divisions go, I think the competition feels stiffer, and that while we will be impacted, the league as a whole is strengthened, possibly enough to begin to rival the SEC in eminence.
The school suffering most could be MSU. Not hard to imagine that they would court regular cellar dweller status.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
Deion will be the most successful as long as he hires quality coordinators and gives them proper autonomy. Deion's job is to create a productive culture and recruit, which he already has shown he can do at a high level.
The next question will be where does he go after Colorado? If I was Mike Novell, I would be getting nervous if Colorado starts winning.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^
I live in Tallahassee, and can tell you that people here like Mike. He's looking to secure a ten-win season, so would need to falter--and Deion excel--before such a change would take place. And the current AD and admin are pretty darned. . . staid.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
Bielema has done wonders at Illinois and they are likely to improve in 2023. It should take Matt Rhule at least two years to get Nebraska trending up in a big way. Same with Luke Fickell.
What Bielema has done in two years should take at least that long for Wisc and Neb to get anywhere near the same results. There's always the Mel Tucker method of raiding the Portal but that's a crap shoot.
Sometimes, like with Jim Harbaugh, things can change in one year like he did for Michigan in 2015, even Hoke in 2011 but he fizzled in those following years, unfortunately.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
Just wanted to take the opportunity to say fuck Hugh Freeze and fuck Auburn for hiring him.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
I think Rhule will be more successful than Fickell. It doesn't appear that Rhule is trying to completely change the Nebraska identity, the way Fickell is in Wisconsin.
I think Rhule will try to mine Texas for the talent overlooked by UT and TAMU.
I have no good takes on the Purdue coaching search. Liepold/not Liepold 🤷
BONUS:
I hate to say it, but Hugh Freeze. He's proven he can coach. Auburn has deep pockets and are willing to spend
December 9th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
Deion sanders will be most successful
hugh freeze will get fired
December 9th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
But, will Hugh Freeze be fired for his record or for whoring? Will a great record lead to whoring being overlooked?
December 9th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Great question and comments.
Purdue’s AD inferred that they anticipated something might happen with Brohm, and have been preparing for this change in the background. Maybe Tulane’s coach will be a candidate.
In the West, I think Wisconsin and Illinois are positioned for the most immediate success. Bielema has done surprisingly good things in the past two years, and his recruits will begin stepping up more. Illinois, like Wisconsin, needs a QB. (I don’t know how much eligibility DeVito has remaining.)
Ruhle will need a couple of years unless he proves to be a master of the portal - and, the challenge Ruhle faces with the portal is in Boulder. I would expect a noticeable number of talented portal prospects to wind up at Colorado. The proximity between Lincoln and Boulder will add to that.
The ACC is weak, and Brohm will be successful there. The PAC-12 is tough - Deion won’t flame out, but winning will be tougher than expected - Oregon, Washington, Utah.. and next year - USC and UCLA. Freeze will flame out. Managing Auburn fans expectations and recruiting against Saban, Smart, and Kelly isn’t going to be easy.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^
Good point about the proximity of Boulder to Lincoln. I hadn't thought of that. I think Nebraska had a pretty talented team last year, but just couldn't do anything with it. I'm not sure how many people they lost to graduation or the portal, though.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
I’d like to see Purdue get someone like Garrett Riley or another up and coming offensive coach. Plus having Garrett and Lincoln in the same division would be entertaining.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
leonard to purdue would make for some real interesting drama. i vote for that
December 9th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
It would complete the square. How many times have four coaches just basically swapped jobs?
Fickell: Cincinnati → Wisconsin
Satterfield: Louisville → Cincinnati
Brohm: Purdue → Louisville
Leonhard: Wisconsin → Purdue
December 9th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
Poggi aside, I am glad we were able to get through this cycle without major losses. Feels like Moore, Hart, Minter all being ogled.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
tom herman, lol
December 9th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Tom Herman had a way better record in his first two years at Texas than Sarkisian. He also went 22-4 at Houston before that. His overall record is 54-22 as a coach, 0.71 percent. That's better than Brohm, Fickell, Rhule (by a mile),
He's not a terrible hire going by the record.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
I’m going to take a wait and see approach with Bielema. We’ll see how Illinois looks in year 3 and 4.
Remember when Ron Zook took Illinois to the Rose Bowl and beat the Buckeyes in Columbus? The very next season, they were immediately back to dumpster fire mode.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
Wrong. I think history has shown that it's a great idea to give coaches huge new contracts after one great year.
December 9th, 2022 at 3:31 PM ^
This is the correct answer for any Michigan Rival or wannabee Rival
December 9th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
Lew-uh-vull
December 9th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
Deion Sanders → Colorado
50/50 IMHO. One thing is likely sure though... if after a couple of winning seasons in Boulder he's gone. I imagine a middle of the pack SEC offer will hit his desk one day.
I'm rooting for Deion though. I don't listen to the talking heads flaming him on social media. If one looks at the videos online of him at JSU, you can tell he cares about his players and community. I don't think he can fake that part.
Hugh Freeze → Auburn
LOL.
Jeff Brohm → Louisiville
Thumbs up. He's their Harbaugh story.
Tom Herman → FAU
Oh how the mighty have fallen. RichRod 2.0.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
Stig, I saw a very interesting interview with Deion about SWAC (or other FCS) schools playing at P5 schools, and why he (Deion) didn’t advocate it. For those who want to know his answer, it was (essentially) those games lose money for the SWAC (FCS) school, so - why should they travel to play a game where they are clearly overmatched from a talent / resource perspective - AND - they lose money on.
December 9th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
Best B1G hire: Rhule. He turned around Temple and Baylor. He was unsuccessful in the pros but he did better than Urban Meyer. I also say this because I want want him to convince Raiola to flip to Nebraska.
I think Fickle is a good coach bit it feels like a meh hire. I also have doubts about going spread.
Most interesting hire: Coach Prime. He is going to recruit well. He seems to be putting together a solid staff. IIRC Colorado has recently updated their facilities. Feels like he will at minimum leave the program in a much better position than they currently are in. With the weakening of the Pac and an expanding playoffs it feels like they could make some noise.
December 9th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
Correct Answers:
Luke Fickell- his Cincinnati winning % (76%) suggests he's a very good coach- But my gut tells me he struggles because he's trying to change W offensive identity & we know how that went for RichRod. Brian Kelly had a 10% higher win percentage at Cincinnati than Fickell & Luke had the big advantage of being DC for OSU which was a huge + in recruiting
Matt Rhule - Will be better than Frost but worse than Pellini His work at Baylor was ok but never beat a ranked team at Baylor
- Deion Sanders → Colorado Will be above .500 immediately and leave in 2-3 years
- Hugh Freeze → Auburn - Will win 65% of games, fail and get fired within 3 years
- Jeff Brohm → Louisiville - Will win 75% of games in slightly more talented Purdue
- Tom Herman → FAU - He's a bad coach and should feel bad
- Kevin Wilson → Tulsa - Will have a lot of close games that he loses
December 9th, 2022 at 3:58 PM ^
I mentioned this in another thread, but Purdue should pursue Chris Creighton. He's got to be one of the most underrated and underappreciated coaches in America. The turnaround that he's pulled off at EMU is nothing short of stunning.
Relatedly, maybe Creighton needs to hire a new agent who will get his name in the mix for some of these openings.
December 11th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Wisconsin got the best hire of the cycle. Chryst seemed to be in good-enough mode, almost like things started to look at UM late in the Lloyd days when we went 7-5 in 2005 and 9-4 in 2007 (2006 was great until it wasn't). Recruiting for lineman, especially OL, dropped off and we had a line with a couple of guys who only had MAC offers. Other than Jake Long, I don't recall anyone on that line who was a stand out (I don't include a traitor like Boren). Luke will bring more energy and better results than Paul C. did 2020-22.
With the (likely) end of divisions when USC and UCLA join the B1G, Purdue is better off going for a HC from a non-Power 5 school (like they did with Joe Tiller from Wyoming). Someone with a strong emphasis on offense. I think Bryan Harsin actually would do much better there than he did at Auburn.
Freeze is likely to win a lot at Auburn. The guy helped Ole Miss recover from Ed O. and Nutt eras and beat Bama back to back. If he wins there, a lot of boosters will offer him free use of 1-900 lines!
Not that it matters at FAU, but I think Tom Herman's days as a HC are mostly over. He should focus on being an OC at a major program.