Three Hot Takes For the Upcoming Season
I know there are plenty in this space who are experiencing negative feelings or outright apathy in regards to this upcoming season. But I want to make three positive predications that I am willing to stick my neck out for. Feel free to point out the egg on my face if by the end of the season these predictions do not come to pass. But I'm feeling pretty good about each one of them.
#1 - Cade McNamara will be a top 5 Big Ten quarterback this season
REASONING: McNamara got a handful of snaps as the starter last season. He was a redshirt freshman, during a weird Covid season, in which he did not receive starter reps leading up to the season. Players improve, particularly from their freshman to sophomore seasons. I know Brian is down on McNamara because of his limited physical tools but college football history is littered with Heisman contending quarterbacks who had similar or worse tools as McNamara. Gattis has mentioned the high esteem Alabama held McNamara in when he in high school so it wasn't just Michigan who saw something in him. Others have mentioned the correlation between gaudy high school career stats and subsequent college success. He may have hailed from Nevada but he tore the hell out of the competition he faced.
McNamara has the leadership skills you look for in a college quarterback. Yes, your mileage may vary in regards to the usefulness of said leadership skills but it's a nice bonus nonetheless. You may have noticed that Tennessee just named Joe Milton as their starting quarterback. It's true that Tennessee's program is way down compared to the past but it's still Tennessee. Milton being their starter has to say something about something. And McNamara was so clearly ahead of him on the depth chart (and presumably Dylan McCaffrey, had he stayed), that Milton didn't even bother sticking around for the spring. Finally, I too am utterly bewildered that Harbaugh continues to whiff on the quarterbacks he has recruited. But even if you believe the ol' quarterback whisperer has lost his touch, the odds are in his favor that at least one of these guys breaks through. If nothing else, at some point luck tilts in your favor. Harbaugh is due.
#2 Josh Gattis does a good job coaching a unified offensive unit that displays coherent and at times creative play calling
REASONING: We know Gattis was a relatively hot commodity prior to accepting the OC position at Michigan. We saw towards the end of his first year that he could put together a great game plan and get his players to execute said game plan. So we can be confident that the ability is within him to accomplish what we as fans would like him to accomplish. But then we were hit with injuries and a quarterback who regressed and a defense that fell apart and was thus putting our offense in bad situations far too much of the time. Assuming better injury luck in 2021, Gattis will have the players and the continuity to execute his game plan, including a quarterback who can hopefully make the proper reads on RPO's.
#3 Our defense will be pretty good during the second half of the season
REASONING: There are reasons aplenty to be scared to death of what our defense will look like during the first half of our schedule. Not only are the players learning a completely new scheme but this scheme is multiple, which inevitably translates to "not easy to master quickly." There might be a lot of mental mistakes and/or vanilla looks until we get our sea legs. And yes, it's true that we shouldn't expect a fully weaponized version of Macdonald's scheme until probably next season. And given that he's a young first time coordinator, there could be plenty of learning pains and hiccups during his first season.
But on the other hand, everyone seems to agree that Macdonald is a bit of a rising star in the coaching ranks and that he's had the opportunity to learn under some great defensive minds. Furthermore, unlike last season, if the players are too slow to pick up on one schematic strategy or if the personnel simply doesn't jive with what the coaches want them to do, we won't have to pivot towards something we didn't really practice during spring and fall practices. That's the advantage of being multiple compared to Don Brown's one-size-fits-all tendencies. Perhaps our players won't be able to master everything being thrown at them but it feels like something should stick.
Finally, our roster is loaded with players who were developmental types that were supposed to be coming into their own right around this time. Sure, the depth chart gets scary in a hurry once you get past the starters but those starters have always held immense promise and have always needed some time to marinate before they were ready to come into their own. And the secondary should be vastly improved across the board compared to last year, for a number of reasons.
Am I off my rocker? Feel free to let me know or just post your own hot takes. It's time to get excited for the upcoming season!
September 1st, 2021 at 8:02 AM ^
My hot take #1 is that the OL plays to their potential and is an elite unit. (#2 & #3) The OL play catalyzes, not only, Cade's re-writing of the passing records at Michigan but, also, the RB room breaking the team total rushing record.
Truthfully, this could happen and turn too many years of disappointment and underperformance on its head. Otherwise, tomorrow I will see my doctor about beginning a treatment plan for a severe delusional disorder.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
I agree that if the OL is an elite unit, we have the players at RB and WR to potentially break a lot of records. Hopefully, the play calling is also up to the challenge.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:06 AM ^
Well these are the projected starting QB's in the B1G this yr. So your first hot-take is not that big of a stretch.
OSU - CJ Stroud (uknown)
IU - Michael Penix (very good)
MSU - Anthony Russo (unknown)
Neb - Adrian Martinez (great runner, bad passer)
Northwestern - Ryan Hilinski (unknown)
Illinois - Arthur Sitkowski (good)
Maryland - Taulia Tagovailoa (great runner, ok passer)
Iowa - Spencer Petras (unknown)
PSU - Sean Clifford (average)
Purdue - Jack Plummer (unknown)
Wisconsin - Graham Mertz (good / very good)
Minn - Tanner Morgan (average / good)
Rutgers - Noah Vedral (unknown)
September 1st, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
1. The defense will get better as the year progresses by a wide margin and become a top 30 defense that gets key stops, but is more of a bend don’t break than straight 3 and out group.
2. Wins over Washington AND Wisconsin. Early season big home game will result in a big win that gets the season going in the right direction. Wisconsin is coming off a brutal early schedule where they could have two losses or be in a situation to not maintain their high level of play following wins over PSU and ND.
3. McNamara, McCarthy, and Bowman all takes snaps this year but we have quality QB where everyone executes for the first time since Rudock. Only McNamara and McCarthy get starts but Bowman either closes out a W or gets a handful of snaps during a key drive or two and doesn’t explode.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^
Good take on the Wisconsin early schedule, but how did they get all of these at Camp Randall? Plus they get Iowa and NW at home and no OSU. I like that we play them after they take on ND and we have Rutgers at home.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
I’ll add my 2.5 cents
1)Read options are actually read
2)Junior Colson is on the Freshman All B1G team
3)I won’t throw anything at the TV
September 1st, 2021 at 8:37 AM ^
- David Ojabo is the sacks leader, not Aidan Hutchinson
- Dax is mediocre, but the secondary overall is one of the best in the B1G
- JJ McCarthy barely plays but Cade isn't a world beater either, setting up a battle next off-season
Overall, 8-4 with middling offense and defense. Optimists will point to some of the returning talent for 22 and pessimists will see this as a definitive sign of the lowering ceiling and floor under Harbaugh
September 1st, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^
1. Ohio State finishes 10-2 with losses to Michigan and Indiana due to COVID-19.
2. Indiana finishes 11-1.
3. The Big Ten awards Ohio State with the East division title.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:46 AM ^
1. Cade has moxy and the offense responds averaging 35 points in Big Ten play
2. The defensive line has enough resistance and technique to minimize power teams and D finishes in top 5 of Big10
3. Defensive backs give up half as many big plays and when the other team throws downfield M fans don’t yell at the tv “please no PI”
September 1st, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
with shit-show refs, "please no PI" will be yelled even if we have 5 Woodson clones in coverage :)
September 1st, 2021 at 8:48 AM ^
I find your #3 very unlikely. If even one of our DTs goes down to injury we are boned.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
But even if you believe the ol' quarterback whisperer has lost his touch,
I question if JH ever had a "touch". Outside of Luck, who has JH coached up??? 1 year of Rudock?
And did JH even coach up Luck or was Luck a generational talent and JH rode his coattails?!
September 1st, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
There was an NFL quarterback who thrived under Harbuagh, but mentioning his name forces some people to go into a fit of rage, so
September 1st, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
So one generational talent and one NFL Qb who had a good starting year under Harbaugh and then slowly went down hill? This in comparison to almost every single Qb here at Michigan under Harbaugh? And please, if anyone wants to act like Harbaugh transformed Rudock from a dud to a stud then they're being absurd. His numbers went up slightly from what they were at Iowa. At least half of that improvement could easily be attributed to him suddenly being surrounded by more talented teammates.
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2014 Iowa Big Ten JR QB 12 213 345 61.7 2436 7.1 7.3 16 5 133.5
*2015 Michigan Big Ten SR QB 13 249 389 64.0 3017 7.8 7.7 20 9 141.5
Unfortunately for all of us, Harbaugh hasn't accomplished jack shit with any of the QBs here at Michigan. Hopefully Cade finally ends that drought, but, absolute worse case scenario...IF Cade ends up being a bust too, then at what point does the preponderance of evidence finally shift the perception of Jim Harbaugh being a QB whisperer?
September 1st, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Agree on Rudock, but the rest of your point is really about recruiting (and a that's a valid criticism). When one of our QBs leaves and lights it up somewhere else, then it's more of a development issue.
Possibly related: If Gattis is fully in charge, it should make reads and play simpler than before him. I do think the West Coast pro-style system was hard for an inexperienced player to step into and do really well (which seems to be possible at many other places)
September 1st, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
Alex Smith improved as will. There was speculation that SF ownership gave Harbaugh’s staff an order to run the unnamed NFL QB less and that’s why he declined, but I’m not necessarily going to make that argument.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^
It doesn't get much hotter than this!
Also the receiving corps could be as productive (if not as talented) as Ohio State's. Ronnie Bell is a star, period. Cornelius Johnson and Dylan Baldwin are a guy Ohio State would take and a guy they tried to. Giles Jackson leaving is a bummer but AJ Henning might be better.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
I feel like Seth was trying to say something else and it came out wrong, because I don't think he actually believes what is written there.
If I amend the first sentence to say..."in a freezing downpour on Thanksgiving weekend", then maybe.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
I was pretty much joking. I think one of three things:
1. As you said it didn't come out as he was thinking it.
2. The comment was made in jest and didn't quite come off that way.
3. He's hard trolling OSU fans. If this is the case, I say well played Seth (from a OSU fan).
September 1st, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
No, you are not off your rocker.
The offense should be fine, in fact, very good. The statement that McNamara "has limited physical tools" seems to be almost cliche. Exactly what are these "limitations"?
If the offense can put up 35 points per game the defense doesn't have to be good just fair.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
I can usually come up with a few hot takes (and indeed deleted one in particular).
But I don't want to anymore. I don't want to pile on or be snarky or get ahead of myself.
I just want the team to do well. I want Jim to leave Michigan on his own terms and timetable. I want to believe.
But if Western is giving us fits on Saturday, I reserve the right to revert to my cantankerous self.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
A nice, measured reply...I agree comrade
September 1st, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
I'll get back to you on Saturday afternoon about 5:00 p.m.
I think the performance against WMU will answer a lot of questions, both ways.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
I actually think it would be better to wait until after the Washington game. Even in our bad years we've usually beat up on the "lesser" teams out there. It's only when we face a relatively equal opponent that wheels tend to start coming off. I think we'll get a much clearer picture of what this team is capable of by the end of regulation on Sept. 11.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
Big agree on number 1. I see a lot of Shea in McNamara. Shea gets a lot of heat on this blog but I’d argue that’s only relative to the high expectations that were placed on him and his teams. Shea was consistently top 5 in the B1G and I see McNamara continuing with that. Cade’s performance will be more positively viewed since the expectations are lower on him and and on this year’s team.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
I agree and don't want to take anything away from McNamara, I think he'll be fine. Probably won't be the weakest part of the offense, let alone the team.
That being said, it wouldn't take much for him to be top 5 in the Big Ten. There's almost no competition. Everyone is either a new and unproven starter (we assume Stroud will be fine since he's at OSU, but he's a RS freshman) or someone we've seen and know isn't that great (Martinez, Clifford, Morgan, Peters/Sitkowski). It's basically Penix/Mertz in a top tier, and the rest of the league QBs. I would hope McNamara can play better than nearly all the rest.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Yeah good points. I guess the OP is not really a super hot take. He really should finish top 5 based on expectations. A hot take would be predicting he’s top two. That would mean being better than either Stroud or Penix most likely.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Not to nitpick you but I don't think number 1 is much more than a lukewarm take. 2 is still possible but evidence to the contrary is mounting. 3 I agree with, unless we get injuries on the DL that cause guys to miss time.
Hot takes (yes some other people have said or mentioned similar)
- Gattis is not OC next year and is replaced by Weiss. The 'why' on Gattis I think is he finds a lateral to slightly upward role elsewhere along with M not really wanting to give him an extension.
- Cade is more like top 3 in conference. Last year was a mess and returning WR production tends to be a big factor in QB play the following year. I'm tired of the "he's physically limited" crap. He holds all the Nevada HS passing and TD records. He can hit a guy that is open. He routinely had a completion percentage above 50% in HS. I'll take these over "first guy off the bus athleticism and size that has only a rocket and no touch" all day. This isn't the NFL.
- The D is way better than most people are predicting. They're going to get gashed on some big plays but there will be enough pass rush this year to actually compensate with some big plays from the D. Actually knowing how to play zone will buy the couple seconds needed to get opposing QB's uncomfortable.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
I'm tired of the "he's physically limited" crap. He holds all the Nevada HS passing and TD records. He can hit a guy that is open. He routinely had a completion percentage above 50% in HS. I'll take these over "first guy off the bus athleticism and size that has only a rocket and no touch" all day. This isn't the NFL.
Concur. Exhibit A:
September 1st, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
I'm also tired of the "physically limited" crap. The most important thing a QB needs to succeed is decisiveness and football sense. And that's all about what's between the ears. I'd argue the only reason Shea isn't remembered more fondly is because of that. He had all the tools to be an elite QB, but his decision-making was so inconsistent (and at times downright awful) that he could never get there, despite ending with stats that rival QBs that Michigan fans are most fond of.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
1. We win a game without winning time of possession. The world keeps spinning, no one dies, Jimmy has a sad but accepts this reality.
2. We win a game when the opponent scores 30. The world keeps spinning, no one dies, Jimmy has a sad but accepts this reality.
3. Based on 1 and 2, we realize winning games with offense is possible and counts exactly the same as winning with defense. This opens a whole new world of possibilities. There is hope, people are excited, we no longer long for the seventies.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
I'm still wait and see on Gattis, but the others seem fine.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
1. With all due respect to the fine folks behind the Raw Power app, FUEGOBOX >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Raw Power when it comes to TAKES.
2. Jake Moody will kick the team to many glorious victories. Okay, at least one or two.
3. There will be a Jess Speight appreciation thread on the board at some point before the season is over.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
Why will we be better? I still haven't heard a convincing case why we will be better than last year. Just a whole lot of, "we have to be better" comments. New staff, new defense, new starters, all of those take time to pay off.
September 1st, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
Yeah the optimism around these parts has more to do with “hope” more than substance! I also hope that the defense drastically improves, but we are throwing out some of the same bodies from last year. A scheme may help out some, but if the talent is not considerably better we may only improve incrementally.
September 1st, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Same bodies...well, less our best pass rusher in Paye, our best Dt in Kemp, our best LB in McGrone, our best return man in Jackson (3rd leading receiver too), or best blocking TE in Eubanks, and several other guys who made NFL rosters. I don't know, Milton was awful, but McNamara has yet to show it vs anyone but Rutgers, but he's the main source of hope for me.
I don't see this year's team being as talented as last year's team and last year's team was terrible. And the scheme changes will take a few seasons to pay off.
September 1st, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
i wonder what you'll type if they look good and go 9-3 or 10-2 and win a bowl game ... will you admit how wrong you were?
September 1st, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
Can I ask will you do the same if they go 7-5 or 6-6? I don’t agree with all he said, but one can make that reasonable argument. I think a healthy Aiden and Kwity last year is a wash. It is not a stretch to say any of our linebackers on the roster are as talented as McGrone. I think Cade will be better than Joe and that Baldwin/Wilson/Henning will be a more than competent 3rd receiver. However, the folks in the desert had our O/U at 7.5 and that’s closer to a .500 football team than the 9-3/10-2 you think that we’ll see this season. Nobody is wrong for being a little pessimistic and I have no faults for some being optimistic for the upcoming year.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
UWS Blue Hot Takes
#1 McNamara manages the game like a young Griese (take was posted yesterday).
#2 Baldwin becomes a star
#3 OL is a cohesive unit
#4 DL is stout
#5 LB's will struggle
#6 Haskins gets close to 1,000 yards
#7 DB's & Safeties will be a strength
#8 Outback vs LSU (win due to Covid forfeiture)
September 1st, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
1- Dickinson is BTPOY
2- Devante Jones is the best grad transfer in the country.
3- Michigan cuts down the nets.
Wait... We are talking basketball right?
September 1st, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
Cade being healthy for an entire season would be a path to being a Top 5 QB in the B1G. We need the O-line to protect him. Now we move to keeping the O-line healthy an entire season would be a path to being a Top 5 Offense in the B1G.
Here's to good physical health for the team to support my mental health!
September 1st, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
It's always good to have optimism at the start of the season. Given all of the positive coaching changes, I like this new coaching staff.
A decent test to the defense will come on Saturday with a high powered offense that has a returning QB as well as a WR and RB. If Michigan can shut them down that would be a great start. By that I mean hold them to 20 pts or less. The Western MI defense is not very good so our guys should be able to scorch them.
I'll take it one game at a time because Saturday will tell us a lot, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
My hot takes:
1. Never have I seen Michigan lose to a Wisconsin 4 times in a row. I think Michigan pulls off a big win in Madison.
2. Gonna be a tight game against Washington, but I think Michigan will win and really set the bar for this season.
3. Give Michigan credit for their defense, they made necessary changes this off-season. I think that they will start clicking by mid season.
4. You know Michigan will lose a game they shouldn’t, so they’ll either lose to Indiana or Maryland (Better not be MSU!).
5. Up by 28 on Western, McCarthy will see some playing time.
Forever and always Go Blue!
September 1st, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
Losing to Indiana would hardly be a game they "lose that they shouldn't". In fact if the game were played tomorrow, IU would easily be favored to win. Some people think they're good enough to challenge OSU for the division. Honestly that's one of the games this year that I'm expecting Michigan to lose again. I think IU could be primed for something special this year.
September 1st, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
I agree with you, but I couldn't really think of another team at the moment of writing it.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
Point 3 is sort of moot because our schedule is backloaded. So even if the defense improves, we still face better competition in the 2nd half of the season that may test our defense more.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
1. Cade is all-big ten.
2. Michigan starts 9-0, but finishes 10-3
3. Gattis gets a head coaching job.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
What a shame that we are to the point that "our defense will be pretty good" is considered a hot take.
September 1st, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
1. At least one Big Ten game will be canceled due to COVID (not necessarily involving Michigan)
2. Michigan will have at most one true capacity crowd this season (OSU)
3. Regardless of how Michigan's season goes, nobody will be calling for P.J. Fleck to replace Harbaugh after the season's over.
4. The general attitude toward the upcoming season—and the program in general—is every bit as negative among MGoBloggers as it was prior to the 2010 and 2014 seasons.
September 1st, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
That fact that it is considered a "hot take" for Michigan to have a top 5 Big Ten quarterback is depressing.