coronavirus
mark schlissel
michigan the university
here is a slightly different picture of an empty stadium [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Covid Report! Covid Report! Comment Count

Brian September 8th, 2020 at 3:59 PM

dance break!

I've been throwing these in UVs but might as well break it out into its own thing as rumors fly willy-nilly about when the Big Ten might start, who is at fault for the Big Ten not starting, and whether or not Urban Meyer is into QAnon now. It's a little bit like a coaching search, except instead of try to scry what one group of decision-makers is doing there are upwards of a dozen different groups, a few of which are covered by people with potatoes for brains.

Then you have an independent wing of rumor-mongers with potatoes for brains.

So instead of attempting to sift through this for what might be true this post is largely going to serve as a debunking item.

[After THE JUMP: everything is baffling]

Dan Patrick not as optimistic

The latest from Dan Patrick, who was one of the originators of the "they'll start October 10th" rumor:

“The Big Ten is still up in the air,” Patrick said. “If you were not with us in the first hour, I gave you an update from my source that there’s still a pushback from the medical community in the Big Ten to not play. I was told they simply don’t have enough teams to play.

“I was told that the Michigan teams — not gonna play. Illinois teams — that’s Illinois and Northwestern — are not gonna play. Maryland’s not gonna play. And Rutgers probably won’t play. That doesn’t leave you with much if you’re able to pull this off.

”And now, I’m told that the medical community within the Big Ten is trying to push to November now. It was Oct. 10, that was the target date so that they could get in a 10-game schedule and qualify for the postseason. I don’t think that’s gonna happen.”

Pushing it to November allows football to operate without students for a period of time and gives rapid testing get more established.

That's not to say that I'm taking that entirely at face value. If football does return, Michigan will play. Michigan is in fact one of the less cautious schools in the Big Ten when it comes to coronavirus. Their dorms are 70% full, move-in precautions were unenforced, resident advisors are furious, grad students are striking, the Faculty Senate is preparing a no-confidence vote, and dorm spread is already underway.

If the Big Ten does decide to resume in the midst of Michigan charging headlong into an iceberg it'll be impossible to argue that football shouldn't also careen around blindly. The University's primary goal these days appears to be soliciting donations, and opting out of football is likely to cause a riot.

Mycocarditis number wrong

The PSU doctor who said 30-35% of covid infectees developed myocarditis was incorrect. The rate is lower than that, but I didn't see a firm number. Because no one really knows anything. Some people think this is a reason to do things; some people think this is a reason not to do things. 

Pac-12 return to play approach

They think November is the earliest that a point-of-contact test will be widespread enough to play:

Scott said that it did not believe rapid tests like these would be available until late November when it decided to postpone the 2020 season in mid-August, one week before football training camp was set to begin. The Pac-12 hopes to begin playing sports around Jan. 1, 2021.

When the tests are fully online, the Pac-12 will be able to determine if point-of-care testing "prior to practice or competition can decrease or eliminate risk of infection." That alone would significantly reduce the threat of the coronavirus. Those testing positive could be promptly separated and quarantined slowing the spread.

The Pac-12 keeps saying things that make them seem like they're reasonable people making reasonable decisions. Something the Big 10 could look into maybe. They're currently getting dunked on by Larry Scott, the guy who built a hovering castle in downtown San Francisco and split the Pac-12 network into a fractal mass of billions of tiny networks only one organism is allowed to view.

Seems untenable

Either this kind of precaution gets dumped during football season or "team has no longsnappers" is going to feel like a Swedish massage:

If you assume a ~105 man roster with walk-ons, that means this could happen every week of the season if a team gets spectacularly unlucky.

Mark Schlissel's not talking

I find this incredible:

Speaking to reporters while participating in a parent-led protest on the Big Ten’s postponement of football season, Harbaugh was asked six times in seven minutes about University president Mark Schlissel. He did his best not to publicly criticize a man who’s technically his boss, but the subtext wasn’t hard to see, even without the benefit of Harbaugh’s facial expressions.

His conversations with Schlissel?

“I have had none,” he said.

Does that upset him?

“You think maybe I’ve got some inside information or something. I really don’t,” he said.

This is par for the course for the Big Ten in regards the public. It is incredible that Schlissel hasn't talked to the head football coach at any point when football is the one thing that got canceled. So you've got the head football coach attending a protest against a decision the university president made.

Schlissel's managed to make almost every major group of stakeholders furious at him. I don't think he's going to be around much longer. Once the school hits the iceberg this is going to be the smoking gun:

An advisory committee convened by the University of Michigan’s president, Mark S. Schlissel, composed of several distinguished professors and campus leaders, delivered a 35-page report exploring the ethics of potential campus-return policies and proposing a framework for ethical decision-making.

But in a later letter to Schlissel, dated July 31, the Covid-19 Ethics and Privacy Committee sought “to underscore, with urgency, our concern that current plans for Fall 2020 will not meet the reasonable standard for safety recommended by our report, that good alternatives exist, and that it is not too late to pursue them.”

It is hard to interpret the university administration's actions as anything other than a foolhardy attempt to pretend things can continue on as they have been.

Comments

robpollard

September 8th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^

Thx for the clarification on Harbaugh. I still think an in-person or at least Zoom/phone call would be advisable, as texting is better for "Hey, you here yet?" type of communication, but at least that's something.

UM has done some good things, such as having 3 out of every 4 classes online; I think that's a good mix as a starting point. My issue has been how they have handled the dorms (which has been much too "regular business" and haphazard, both in prep and in practice), but maybe they'll get lucky or the students will bail them out by showing a level of personal responsibility that, quite frankly, is higher than I would expect out of 18-24 year olds (even at a great school like UM).

Joined: 06/03/2009

MGoPoints: 14013

Blue Vet

September 8th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^

Oh oh. I figured Schlissel, as a doctor and scientist, was all doctor-y and scientist-ish about this mess. But no?

Not holding my breath but at least crossing my fingers.

Joined: 05/08/2012

MGoPoints: 72020

kehnonymous

September 8th, 2020 at 6:34 PM ^

On balance I still think that the B1G presidents made the more correct decision to postpone/cancel/whatever the football season because GODDAMN PANDEMIC, but whether or not you agree with the decision, I think it's pretty plain that holy forking shirtballs they've couldn't have handled the messaging and rollout of said decision any worse

Joined: 11/25/2011

MGoPoints: 33261

Blake Forum

September 8th, 2020 at 6:56 PM ^

I have a significant Twitter presence and I've spent thousands of hours on there. For a reasonable price, I'm happy to provide grifter-identification lessons for anyone who got suckered by Sir Yacht

Joined: 07/20/2020

MGoPoints: 22234

patrickdolan

September 8th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^

If you're going to get a president fired, please, for the love of all that's holy, turn your attention to Iowa and get our president fired. It will save more lives, I promise you.

Leave Ferentz alone, though. I'm a Michigan fan, after all.

Joined: 07/10/2008

MGoPoints: 731

killthereds

September 8th, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^

Is the title for this post based on the theme song for the kids show, The Octonauts? I’ve had that stuck in my head with the kids home so much so I may be imagining things

Joined: 10/27/2016

MGoPoints: 157

RGard

September 8th, 2020 at 8:02 PM ^

Just wait until after the drop add deadline (after which you aren't reimbursed the full 100% of what you paid in tuition) and they go 100% on-line and evacuate the dorms.

That'll put the tin hat on it.

Joined: 10/20/2014

MGoPoints: 57397

Jota09

September 9th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^

That would also be the death knell for any credibility he had when it comes to that immunology degree or whatever it is he has.  Dr. Fauci himself has stated that having college students on campus and then after outbreaks going virtual is the worst thing you can do.  Those infections now spread all over the country instead of staying localized.  

That would also force some much needed humility or half this board.  That same half that has been absent in this discussion now that the fearless leader has come down on their patron saint of Michigan immunology.    

Joined: 09/24/2008

MGoPoints: 1135

bronxblue

September 8th, 2020 at 8:39 PM ^

I agree that Schlissel hasn't been good at communicating with the school and probably should have a conversation with Harbaugh (though I don't really know why he'd need to give him, a football coach, "insider information" about what the university is doing with regards to a global pandemic), but it's weird to see Brian suddenly turn on him because of it when the beating drum for months was how he seemed to be taking a studied approach to it.  I think it's dumb to bring students back to campus generally and I fear there will be upticks, but thus far they've apparently kept cases down and been able to able to limit spreader events.  If that's actually possible to maintain then that's good, and I see why a school would want people on campus.  

I don't know if Mark Schlissel is long for UM; I've not heard anyone in the community outside of football really complain about him, and Harbaugh being a little pissy about something is, frankly, not that surprising anymore.  Maybe he does get run out of dodge because of this, but point out the class of school presidents who are doing a demonstrably better job at handling this pandemic.  

The one thing I'd like to see is a concrete plan for starting up a season.  The Pac-12 response isn't great but it's at least something in the direction.  The Big 10 needs to lay out their plan so that people have an idea, even if it's not a great one.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172170

Needs

September 9th, 2020 at 8:32 AM ^

In terms of people outside of football complaining about Schlissel and the administration's response, GEO, the grad student union, is currently striking to protest what their members believe are unsafe teaching conditions. https://www.michigandaily.com/section/academics/geo-forms-picket-lines-…

There's also a vote of no confidence in the administration scheduled by the faculty senate for next week, along with some super ham handed stuff from the Office of Legal Council about how it can't be a legal vote because the faculty senate's bylaws don't allow for remote voting, and they can't change the bylaws without a quorum of 100 people, which is currently forbidden. https://www.michigandaily.com/section/administration/two-weeks-schedule…

The Daily's also been running editorials like this "The University's Summer of Lies" written by an anonymous staff member. https://www.michigandaily.com/section/opinion/op-ed-university%E2%80%99…;

So I think the discontent about the university's response are pretty broadly shared, though with very different perspectives (football's perspective of "let them play" vs. instructors and staff "the University is putting us in danger")

Joined: 08/05/2008

MGoPoints: 11638

Durham Blue

September 8th, 2020 at 9:33 PM ^

Let me tell you how serious this thing is for me.  I haven't dumped money into my online betting account.  It was like clockwork.  End of August every year I deposited money in anticipation of the upcoming action.  For me, no Michigan football no wagers.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30114

Durham Blue

September 8th, 2020 at 9:50 PM ^

Michigan football, despite Schlissel's perceived ambivalence, is a major PR thing for the University of Michigan.  It's difficult to talk about Michigan in any type of conversation without bringing up football, its storied history, the OSU rivalry, etc.  Losing football for an entire season is simply not an option, AFAIC, especially when 3 of 5 P5 and now the PAC 12 sounding confident that it will return to play out some sort of season.  Michigan, along with Ohio State, need to be the leaders on this front.  You cannot have a B1G season without these two.  If 70% of kids are allowed to be on campus, you have to allow football.  And basketball for that matter.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30114

mackbru

September 9th, 2020 at 12:55 AM ^

I can assure you that most people around the country and the world, when discussing U of M, don’t automatically default to football talk. I’m a grad who’s lived in several places. People only sometimes mention football when they ask me about Michigan, and usually only in passing. That’s because most people don’t actually live and breathe college football. Most people think of M as a great school, period. Football is definitely a big thing to many Michigan grads. But you’re seeing the world through your own narrow lens. Michigan would be still be Michigan if it dropped football tomorrow. But thank god it won’t. 

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 34197

bronxblue

September 8th, 2020 at 11:09 PM ^

Yeah, it's still early but the UM dashboard doesn't look all that bad compared to Alabama, Iowa, and UNC, to name three.

Again, I'm on record for saying that having students on campus is a bad idea, but I'm not sure 4 people across 3 dorms is necessarily a sign of massive dorm spread.  That may still be the case, but it hasn't happened quite yet.  Honestly, UM looks closer to schools like Boston U, which has done a pretty good job limiting outbreaks while welcoming students back.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172170

outsidethebox

September 9th, 2020 at 7:24 AM ^

The most clear and present danger here is that persons of little to no knowledge regarding this matter are given/have taken a platform to speak of things that they know nothing about. I was a pediatric nurse for 25 years, mostly inpatient oncology, and I do not consider myself to be an expert in this here. My wife (NP) and brother (Pediatrician) are quite more expert and knowledgeable and instruct/guide me. All the speculators throwing crap they know nothing about against the wall need to, somehow, be put in their place. Comorbidities are a real thing and our greatest one is likely defiant ignorance-including people who should know better. This matter has and continues to confound experts.

Joined: 01/23/2017

MGoPoints: 18825

swdodgimus

September 9th, 2020 at 8:52 AM ^

I don't necessarily disagree with canceling the season at this point, but two things really frustrate me:

1) Rather than immunology expert Mark Schlissel providing some sort of preventative guidance to students and the football team, he sat on his hands for months.

2) It's resulted in no football when Harbaugh has testing on lockdown with no cases in more than a month...and students had pretty much no precautions laid out for them.

If science were running the decisions, you'd think students would be mostly remote this semester (other than clinical classes where students need to be in-person). Instead, I can't think of another motivation for students to return other than Ann Arbor landlord Ron Weiser having undue influence as a Regent. Money > science with regards to Schlissel's decision-making.

 

Joined: 07/25/2009

MGoPoints: 688

ndscott50

September 9th, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^

Was just listening to Joel Klatt on the fan in Denver this morning.  He thinks we are going to play starting later in October.  Indicated he may be calling games into March if the Pac 12 starts after the Big Ten.  He appears concerned he wont have enough hand sanitizer to make it through calling 30 games this year.

 

Joined: 10/02/2009

MGoPoints: 5774

BlindTiger

September 9th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^

Schlissel is not a leader in the true sense of the word, which is a) incredibly important for our great university in particular and 2) has been clearly underscored during covid.

Joined: 09/20/2018

MGoPoints: 34

Hail-Storm

September 9th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^

Schlissel was probably expecting a much different presidency.  He knew nothing of sports coming in, and was told that everythinhg there was fine and running smooth, then BAM, he's firing an athletic director after The Football program made the entire university look bad that it didn't care about it's own players and students.  He has a huge strike for the hospital system where a known union buster came in to try exactly that. They had to quickly back track from the huge support the nurses got from patients and doctors. Now he is dealing with COVID, and it is not going well.

I'm thinking this just isn't for him. I do think that Coleman should have done a lot more during her huge fund raising binge to ensure that part of those went towards tuition, to help reduce the exponential like cost for students who would become your alumni base.

 

Joined: 06/07/2010

MGoPoints: 9955