NateVolk

July 25th, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^

Lots of folks really mincing and spinning  numbers about this. Rate is rate but people dying is still people dying. Making a lot of assumptions based on those numbers to give a a positive spin. Similar to the approach to this from national leadership which has now buried the entire country.

When we 1. don't have any cure. And 2. we don't know how each case is going to impact each individual person.  

If we had a modernized close to real time testing system in place, we could operate intelligently. Trace and isolate quickly. 

We do not have that. So it's walk around and hope. Hope it doesn't infect. And if it does, hope it doesn't cause long term health issues or worse.

It's amazing to me how the many people who want certain outcomes either with the economy, or their entertainment, or the appearance of normalcy, still do not grasp the large majority of people in the US are paralyzed with fear. And justifiably so.

Even if college football is happening, I am not sold it's even a good idea. We don't have this thing under control at all. 

No better than the clown Governor from Florida a few weeks ago pumping our chests about how we have this beat. When that claim is not based on any science. 

 

 

 

blueheron

July 25th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^

"... people who want certain outcomes ..."

You have it. Desires guide lots of human behavior and that's extra-true in the USA.

I don't think the great majority of the population should be paralyzed with fear, but seeing at-risk seniors in the Sun Belt pile into tight indoor spaces is amazing. Maybe they're tired of living.

ijohnb

July 25th, 2020 at 5:48 PM ^

They aren’t tired of living, they just don’t fear dying.  I think a lot of people have decided that a life cowering inside scared all the time is not for them.  It isn’t healthy.  This virus is going to do what it is going to do.  Enough trying to play God.  We are not in control of this thing because it is ultimately uncontrollable.  Attempts to do so by paralyzing people with fear and uncertainly are pointless and self-defeating.  Live your life.

michgoblue

July 26th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^

This is exactly right. Nobody is saying that covid won’t kill people. It will. At the same time, 98+ % of people who get this virus will recover and be fine. That isn’t in dispute. Also not in dispute is that if you exclude deaths in nursing homes, the survival rate exceeds 99%.  Yes, people are scared shitless. And I understand that, but at the same time the fear of this disease has been steadily stoked by the media and politicians on both sides of the aisle.  Unless you are elderly, have cancer or fall into a few risk classes, this disease is not the equivalent of airborne stage 4 cancer.  It just isn’t.

As a result, many of us are not willing to sit home and cower in fear of something that is beyond out control and that we have an overwhelmingly strong chance of surviving. I understood the need to pull back on society for a few weeks or even a few months to allow the hospitals to get a lead on this. But how long are we willing to cower in fear, give up the things that make us Happy, take away the youths of our children, cancel sports and sit home for?  End of the year?  Maybe some would say ok. How about 5 years?   

jmblue

July 25th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^

Rate is rate but people dying is still people dying.

Have any U-M athletes died of COVID?

For the good of society, we really need to drop this notion that everyone is equally at risk and that we must regard every infection as a disaster.   What will most likely happen with these five individuals is that they'll isolate for a while and then be OK.

BoFan

July 25th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^

“For the good of society”?  And what “good” do you actually care about?  5 college athletes is all you mention in your post.  Football?  More likely you are suggesting society can come back to life via fiat.  

Nate, the poster you responded to had correctly stated “rate is rate but people dying is still people dying”. In other words people use death rates to avoid the brutal and truthful reality of actual deaths or to pursue an agenda. All the debate about true death rate is a waste of effort and of blog print space. 

The truth is there have been 150,000 COVID deaths in the US so far with 1000 per day and growing.  That’s a pace that reaches 250,000 deaths in a few months.  There were only 34,200 flu deaths during the last flu season in the US https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID deaths will likely reach 10x a typical flu season with the current efforts.  Flu, like COVID, affects the elderly more, but also like COVID it hits every demographic.

What’s worse, these 150,000 to 250,000 deaths were completely avoidable when we look at what has been done in any other top 30 industrialized country.  The only reason they weren’t avoided was due to incompetence combined with the foolish idea that an economy can recover by fiat decided by people afraid of running for re-election during a down economy.  They are only now just starting to realize that doesn’t work.  

Further, 10% of COVID cases are healthcare workers and, though we don’t know the actual death rate, due to the viral load they are exposed to there have been far too many health care deaths reported.  These too were avoidable.  

The entire discussion of death rate is a red herring. The discussion that it only is an impact to elderly is a red herring. These obfuscate the fact that we have 150K avoidable deaths across every demographic and growing.   

Perhaps you are buying into the foolish idea that the economy can comeback before the virus is contained.  Economies run on sentiment and fear, as well as monetary policy. Fiscal policy is important in a recessionary situation.  

So what is “for the good of society”?  The economy won’t recover by fiat.  It won’t  fully recover until people believe they can safely enjoy their lives again.  That only happens with sound fact-based policies for people to feel safer in the short term and eventually with a vaccine.  

And although the economy WILL recover, you can’t get back a 150,000 loved ones.  That’s not even accounting for the likely 1M with severely damaged cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Many of those without long term health care. 

For the good of society let’s do what we can to keep that number from growing to 250K or 500K.  Let’s take care of our sick.  Let’s take care of our front line workers. And let’s stop buying into these foolish distractions and excuses regarding death rates, expendable people, and using fiat (instead of facts, data, and hindsight) to begin the recovery and get people back to work and school.  

ijohnb

July 25th, 2020 at 7:58 PM ^

Nah, let’s discuss mortality rate and who is most at risk from Covid and determine the best course of action to protect the most vulnerable, while not destroying our entire culture, economy, and the opportunities for children in this country.  Let’s stop acting like we have the answers, because we clearly don’t.  Let’s stop acting like the one dude in the gas station not wearing a mask is the death nail for a population where 99% of people are.  
 

Let’s not act as though stripping people of their livelihood through unconstitutional means, as well as their ability to effectively pursue civic and development activities for themselves and their children is just the price we have to pay for “safety,” and while we are at, let’s stop acting like the “safety” of all people should and can be ensured by the government, particularly when most of the same people who asking for it want to take police out of the communities who most desperately need them, and deny educational opportunities to those most dependent on the government to provide them.  And while we’re at that, let’s stop referring to Constitution itself with air quotes and an eye roll because it is literally the most comprehensive and righteous document ever conceived for the governance of people and it is currently being irrevocably obliterated before our eyes.

 

In short, let’s stop acting like a bunch of assholes motivated by pure politics and understand that living, and thriving, as a culture through this pandemic is the only way to “beat it.”  

blue in dc

July 25th, 2020 at 9:00 PM ^

Your sermon does not look particularly devoid of politics to me.   

Interestingly, in at least some cases, the Supreme Court has affirmed the restrictions that you claim to be evidence of the irrevocable obliteration of the constitution

‘The Supreme Court has ruled, for the second time in the last two months, against a church which sought exemptions from statewide restrictions on houses of worship during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Yet Calvary Chapel Dayton Valley v. Sisolak, a decision handed down on Friday night, is a very different case than South Bay United Pentecostal Church v. Newsomthe decision from May in which the Court also ruled against a church that objected to state public health rules. Both decisions were 5-4, with conservative Chief Justice John Roberts crossing over to vote with his four liberal colleagues, but the church in Calvary Chapel presented a much stronger legal argument than the church in the earlier case.‘
 

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/25/21338216/supreme-court-churches-pandemic-covid-samuel-alito-brett-kavanaugh-calvary-chapel