OT: Coronavirus Outbreak - Worried or No Big Deal? How 'Prepper' Are You?
Mates,
I remember some epidemics that had people nervous, bird flu for one, that turned out to be overblown. But who knows about the latest Coronavirus, allegedly spawned in the same city as China's newest germ study (warfare?) facility. With up to a 2 week incubation period it could be very difficult to pin down and indeed, Pandora may already be out of the box. I would say its a safe bet that China is greatly under-reporting the issue - you don't quarantine 50 million people because there is a bad case of the flu.
Hopefully some Mgoblog-epidemiologists can chime in.
Questions for the board:
1. Are you worried about this being serious, or do you think its more along the lines of an over-hyped issue?
2. What would you do if you were told not to leave your house for a week or two like the folks in Wuhaan Province have apparently been directed. Are you a 'prepper' enough to make it through?
Not a sunshine topic, but conceivably could become quite important to all of us.
XM
January 30th, 2020 at 7:39 PM ^
Have you seen or read The Road?
That’s us. We’re dead. It’s over.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:49 PM ^
just read the plot. very uplifting....
January 30th, 2020 at 9:10 PM ^
Just call me...THE OMEGA MAN
January 30th, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^
I watched this movie while deployed to Baghdad in 2010. It was more depressing than anything I dealt with up until that point of my deployment. It’s an awful, depressing movie.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:38 PM ^
It is an awful depressing movie.
It is also a depressing book, but also brilliant and incredibly affecting.
You should read it XM. Think you would like it.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:50 PM ^
i know you mean that sincerely and i'm guessing its because of the depth of thought and plot that shows itself in the book. i'm not into too much 'dystopia' stuff, but i'm sure its an excellent book.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:48 PM ^
Your not kidding about depressing. I wanted to slit my wrists after watching that movie
January 31st, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
I'm a Cormac McCarthy fan and even I found the book and film to be terribly depressing. What saves the book for me is that McCarthy is an absolutely brilliant and powerful writer. But if you're looking to try him out I'd say "No Country for Old Men" is probably his most approachable, or "All the Pretty Horses."
January 30th, 2020 at 8:58 PM ^
My interpretation of the book was quite different. To me it was a testament to the human spirit to survive. To toil on despite unimaginable hardships. While dark and somber, I finished it thinking it was very optimistic, like most tragedies.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:00 PM ^
We're all carrying the fire.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:09 PM ^
The ending is so ambiguous that I think it leaves it to the reader to interpret its meaning. I think most readers almost force an optimistic interpretation because they need to, emotionally, after what came before it.
And yes XM, I meant it sincerely. You are well versed and well traveled and have your firm beliefs, but I am positive that even you would come out of The Road with an enhanced perspective. It is not a traditional “dystopian” work, in fact it is so compact in scope that “dystopia” is little more than a passive setting. It truly is a must read.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:47 PM ^
The last paragraph of that book (a quick read overall) soars off the page because it stands-out from the story itself. The author suddenly talks directly to the reader about what appears to be a true story, one apart from the apocalyptic tale. Fiction or not (I think the ambiguity was the point), it was the most powerful statement on mankind’s relationship to the environment that I’ve ever read. It struck the deepest of chords. Just shattered me. I sat in awe. Teary-eyed.
Skip the movie.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:11 PM ^
Tried to read it. Didn't find it very engaging and moved on.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^
McCarthy is not for everyone. Either you “get him” or you don’t. Most people who like his books like all of them. Those who don’t aren’t attracted to any of his writing. He is certainly challenging.
January 31st, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
Look, _The Road_ is an excellent piece of writing but it's not challenging. It's pop.
McCarthy adopts popular viewpoints on environmentalism, guns, violence, family, masculinity, and economics. He's indistinguishable from a hack, albeit a very talented one, because a hack would approach the exact same topics in the exact same way. Maybe not as well. Maybe not so elegantly and beautifully unified. But there is not one idea in _The Road_ that the reader couldn't also find in People magazine.
McCarthy doesn't challenge a thing.
January 31st, 2020 at 3:26 PM ^
This is a garbage take and you shouldn't be teaching anyone anything with a mind like that.
January 31st, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
Username checks out.
January 31st, 2020 at 7:29 PM ^
Wow. If you are really a teacher I can’t imagine you are a very good one. That is flat wrong, IMO.
January 31st, 2020 at 8:13 PM ^
Would you like to discuss it instead of attacking my teaching abilities? Why do you say _The Road_ is challenging?
February 1st, 2020 at 8:01 AM ^
No. You don’t seem like somebody I would want to discuss anything with. Thanks though.
February 1st, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
All righty then. Have a good weekend!
January 30th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
That was a great book. The movie was disappointing though. We are definitely dead. for sure
January 30th, 2020 at 7:42 PM ^
I work from home very frequently and my wife home schools one of our children. It would not be difficult for us to stock up on a bunch of granola bars and food, pull the other kid from school and live in a bu ble for a few weeks.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:04 AM ^
I'm trapped in China. Very worried. Very prepped. Very bored.
Just watching virus movies and Zack Novak videos to learn survival tips.
I'd venture that the numbers are far more serious than what is reported.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^
"Are you a 'prepper' enough to make it through?"
My dog and I are eyeing each other nervously.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:45 PM ^
don, in case you haven't noticed, you are all bones. my money is on the dog.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:51 PM ^
My guy is so slow he can't come close to nabbing the dumb squirrels in our neighborhood, so I like my odds.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
Here's the latest from U of M Health, for what it's worth
Be aware, but not concerned.
Both Lauring and Standiford say the risk to travelers in the United States is relatively low. Health officials and hospitals are on alert and monitoring anyone traveling from China with respiratory symptoms.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:08 PM ^
My university has banned university related travel to China and is requiring special clearance to return if you’re already there. They’re taking it really seriously.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:47 PM ^
My computer has a good anti-virus program loaded on it. I've been wearing it in my pants. I always keep plenty of pork rinds and corn nuts on hand so a week at home is no worry.
January 31st, 2020 at 8:17 AM ^
Well played sir, you gave me quite the laugh this morning!
January 30th, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
I finished reading this a few nights ago. Fantastic read—the conditions in some major American cities, like Philly, were truly apocalyptic. Entire families so sick they couldn't even get their own dead out the door. For days.
Nothing I've read about the coronavirus indicates virulence or lethality that's remotely as bad as the 1918 flu, but nature has a habit of mutating quickly, so who knows what's in the wind.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
Seriously, the flu will kill far more people this season than this corona virus will. Not sure why people are getting hyper-worried about this virus when they pay hardly any attention to influenza.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:47 AM ^
When is the last time 50 million people were quarantined over the flu? China's actions are unprecedented and say a lot more about the reality of the situation than their words and their lowball statistics say.
January 31st, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
The quarantine has to be taken in context. China lost face when they tried to downplay the severity of the SARS outbreak. It is entirely within character for them to overreact this year. And there are fewer cultural impediments to a massive quarantine in China than there would be in many other countries.
People take the flu for granted because it's not new, but I suspect it will remain much more deadly than this virus. The low number of cases reported in the US and elsewhere is an indication that person-to-person transmission remains relatively rare.
While I suspect many Americans had never heard of Wuhan before this outbreak started, it's a fairly large city -- over eight million residents in the metropolitan area. That's a lot of potential travelers.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
It is really the fear of unknown driving these actions then the actual damage from the virus. The flu has already killed 8,200 in US alone this season. This virus will probably not kill that many people around the world this year. People need to weight risks correctly. There is a FAR greater chance that you will die from the flu this year than this virus.
January 31st, 2020 at 5:48 PM ^
The seasonal flu has a lethality rate of 0.0005%. 15M infected, 8000 dead so far this year.
This coronavirus has a reported lethality rate of 3%. If the same 15M are infected, that's 450,000 dead.
Its long incubation period means that it would be extremely hard to contain, because people could be infected and disperse for 2 weeks before showing symptoms.
If this goes pandemic in the US, it will shut down the economy, and rightfully so. We will be burning bodies or making mass Graves.
There is a reason that people are freaking out about this. It isn't all media spin.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:49 PM ^
Over-hyped. 2% mortality rate and most of those are vulnerable populations (elderly, immunocompromised etc)
China is probably under-reporting the statistics, but that also probably means most people who don't report think it's a cold or flu, thus do not go to the hospital meaning the mortality rate is most likely lower imo.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
Mortality rate is going to lag the confirmed cases. You need to look at the number dead vs the number that were confirmed cases a few days ago. It likely takes a few days at a minimum to go from diagnosed to dead.
1,000 people are in critical condition right now, some of them will die. Last I saw, more people have died than recovered.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:09 PM ^
Mortality rate is an extremely fluid number at a time like this but there is no way more people have died than recovered a month into the outbreak with 7k confirmed cases and 170 deaths. There’s also been like 5 deaths for people under the age of 50 and like 4 total cases of person to person transmission outside of China. It’s not nearly as contagious as people originally made it out to be and it’s not even confirmed it’s contagious while asymptomatic. I think it’s a good thing scientists are paying attention. As an individual in the us I’d be way more worried about the regular flu
January 30th, 2020 at 8:52 PM ^
I honestly don't know what to think. We know someone in China who is saying that it is far worse than what the Chinese government is letting on. He claims the Chinese government is arresting people who spread "false rumors" about the virus online.
Also, you are using yesterday's #s of 7K confirmed and 170 dead. Today's #s are 9.7K confirmed and 213 dead. Considering that it can take up to 14 days to show signs and some people are supposedly showing no signs at all...it is possible that a lot more people already have it then what we know.
Obviously lives are most important, but an ancillary issue is that this could ding the global economy. Less Chinese tourists around the globe, less airline flights, loss of productivity (my wife's company has a facility in China...they are shut down into mid February as is...maybe longer due to the virus - and they have to keep paying the workers so it is a huge financial hit), China will be buying less stuff from the world, etc.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:21 AM ^
Preliminary indications are that the R0 of this virus are higher than the flu, SARS, etc. Mortality rate really isnt known at this time. But it seems (so far) to be slightly more contagious that previous outbreaks we hVe seen globally
January 31st, 2020 at 7:42 AM ^
That is a good point about not knowing the mortality rate. People are simply taking the official Chinese government numbers of infected and deaths to get a 3 percent number. While ignoring that there are over a thousand in critical condition, some of which are likely to die and the cured number is less than the dead number.
January 31st, 2020 at 8:20 AM ^
There have also been zero deaths outside of China and it has mostly presented as flu like symptoms. I find it hard to believe all 68 international cases are just lucky to be extremely mild. It’s likely there is a lot of undercounting but that also means a lot of people who recovered without ever being diagnosed
January 31st, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
That is fair. I am just saying that it is difficult to measure the death rate at this stage in the game. I am also saying that the Chinese numbers could be suspect, especially with an independent Chinese news source saying that the Wuhan crematorium stated that the government was burning many more bodies.
Of the now 153 international cases we have 0 deaths and 10 recoveries. Surely a positive sign. Hospitals outside of Hubei aren't overwhelmed either, which I am sure helps.
February 2nd, 2020 at 7:19 AM ^
The stats I am looking at right now show 2 deaths outside of China. A 23 year old in Malaysia and a 44 year old in the Philippines.
Outside of mainland China there are 177 confirmed cases, 9 recoveries*, and 2 deaths.
This number had been 10, not sure what happened.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
Lime is the antidote
January 30th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
does it make a difference if the lime is served in a gin and tonic, as opposed to say, a corona?
January 30th, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
Or in a mass grave?
January 31st, 2020 at 5:49 AM ^
It goes in the coconut.