October 28th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
October 28th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
Agree here.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
Backing this.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Michigan -11.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
I think this is pretty close, but if I had to go one way or another, I'd say it -7 or more. We are definitely the better team and it's at home. We were a full TD fave @ MSU and Vegas loves home teams.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
I agree that the opening line is 6.5. I also think we clear the line. I won't be surprised if the game comes up short of the over/under, which I expect to predict a high scoring game, whereas I see it more as an ugly, low scoring affair.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Michigan -8
October 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Seconded.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Do you still stand by your comments that PSU isn't a good team? You said the same about MSU but they have beaten PSU, and Purdue (and I suspect OSU possibly)
I think you also said B Kelley will be fired , but ND is on a roll.
Just wanting to see what you thought of PSU.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
I said that I could see Kelly being fired if they went 8-4, which was my prediction. I underestimated them, and didn't realize how rough of years FSU, USC, and VT would have. So that's that. I had ND losing to us and those 3 teams - they've obviously won 2 of those 4 already and will be heavy favorites in the other two.
MSU is not a good team, BTW. Beating other not good teams doesn't make them good. They have a bad secondary and a horrible offense, and half their team is in the hospital. It's a very MSU MSU team, in that I can see them beating OSU and I can see them losing to Nebraska and Maryland too.
As for Penn State, yeah, I mean it obviously depends on your definition of "good", but I don't think they are a top 25 team. Their defense, specifically their run defense, is in the bottom half of the Big Ten. Their OL is average. McSorley is a baller, but he's less dangerous without Barkley and Gesicki. My prediction for PSU this year was 8-4 - that's pretty much on track.
We should win this game very comfortably because we should be able to run at will. I like us by over 20.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Good stuff. Just want M to win. Don't care about margin of victory. Just win!
October 28th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
When you say they are not top 25, that means there are 25 teams better than them, and I don't think there are. I believe they are top 20. I believe a healthy MSU is top 25 also.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
Adamantly disagree on both points.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
They both beat Boston College, Utah St, Fresno St, Virginia, Iowa, Houston, Miss St, and Syracuse. Those teams are garbage. I don't believe in Washington or Kentucky either. Hell State might beat OSU in 2 weeks.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
I don't think you meant to reply to me with the post. If you did, you're being nonsensical.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Dear Mr. Toboggan, I agree. I thought it was possible for PSU to lose as many as 5 games this year but Pitt turned the ball over and Indiana continues to come up short in game after game in spite having some admirable tools. Franklin continues to push for late points to impress the uninformed.
If McSorley cannot move laterally this Saturday, then PSU may be shutout.
Defining the mark of a good team is slippery. If you are expecting an invitation to the CFP then an 8-4 team ranked 16 is not very good but that is good for many teams.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
OT: looking for a Michigan bar in Nashville, TN to watch the game Saturday. Any suggestions?
October 28th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
I'm sure there are 65 Buffalo Wings and 800 other sports bars in Nashville. Don't be a thread-jacker...
October 28th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
To be fair, he asked for a Michigan bar, not a sports bar. And I'd rather it be here with a comment + a quick reply and be done with it than another thread.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
Slider House in Midtown is the designated spot
October 28th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
Thanks, Mike!
October 28th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
UM -9.0, with a full 4 points attributable to Field Goal Franklin
October 28th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Agree on line and reasoning. He’s an awful coach.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
How did you like him icing his own freshman kicker yesterday with a timeout late in the game? Brilliant strategy
October 28th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
It was in the first half, not late in the game.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
My predictive model says Mich -4.5.
Last week it was 55% ATS and 65% on O/U for all games
It also favors us by 10 in a rematch vs ND
October 28th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I have us by 6.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Me too.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
M - 8.5
October 28th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
i'll go with this
October 28th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
Seems high only saying this because that's what we said about Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. Here's to hoping for a similar result.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Considering Vegas was somehow correct about MSU/Purdue, I'll just keep my mouth shut and hope it's really high for the good guys.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
Huh? It was a "pick 'em" after kickoff and MSU won by 10. How is that "Vegas was right"???
October 28th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Initial line was MSU -1. That’s the line to go by I believe. All lines afterwards are effected by where the bets are going.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
Actually, I think it opened at MSU -2.5, slipped to MSU -1, and then went to pick 'em once it was announced Lewerke was out. But non of those lines were Vegas being "right," not with MSU winning by 10. If it had been MSU -8, -9, -10, -11, -12, sure, then Vegas would have been "right."
October 28th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
They were really right compared to most of the fans here. Almost all of us thought Purdue should be favored.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Penal State is not very good. They barely won again at home and only because the Iowa QB kept throwing passes into the ground. Seriously, that QB looked like he took too much cold medicine before the game.
We will beat them by a margin like the MSU game. The line will be over 10.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Agreed. -5.5 to open. Will creep higher.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
creep is the correct term when describing anything involving Pedo State.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
Opens Michigan -7
October 28th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
11 1/2 (Michigan favored).
October 28th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Don't be so negative! You gotta support your teams in good times, and in "Franklin calls a TO and ices his own kicker for no reason" times. :-D
October 28th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I'm just guessing the point spread. U-M is about a touchdown better in many of the advanced analytics. Then add a few points for home field, and a point or two more for intangibles (U-M has more momentum of late, need to look good for the CFP race, revenge from 2017).
All that said (trying to play the role of the objective gambler here): I do think PSU is the play (definitely if they are a double-digit underdog, and worth a flyer on the money-line) next week. I'll post my rationale as we get closer.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
Interested to see your objective take. But no way in hell does PSU open +11.5. None.
EDIT: Unless you have inside info that McSorley woke up next to three dead hookers this morning...
October 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Allegedly....
October 28th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Which begs the question, where is the Mad Hatter?
October 28th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
I think you are close. I thought about it the other day and thought 10 1/2.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
Michigan -4.5
October 28th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
Lines at -7. Actual score? 31-13.