michael barrett

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

The Franklin thing in a nutshell. PSU's OL coach catching strays from Anonymous NFL OL Coach:

Penn State’s Olu Fashanu

“He’s extremely athletic for his size. Their system is hard to watch. You’ve gotta sift through that stuff. The guys shuffle. They play with high-pad level. They don’t snap and strike guys. But he’s got all the traits. He’s a good prospect.”

Phil Trautwein has been their OL coach since 2020, but PSU's grim OL goes back farther than that.

Also. A couple of Michigan takes from that article:

Michigan’s Michael Barrett

“This is a really good player someone will get in the fifth or sixth round. Just a tough-ass kid. He’s a junkyard dog. Plays faster than what he runs. I hate saying that because once you get to the NFL that stuff catches up to you, but I like him a lot. I think he’ll be a really good special teams player too.”

And on Sainristil:

On Michigan’s Mike Sainristil

DB Coach 2: “He is one of my favorites. The habits are just so good. I’m not leery of his size because I think he plays a lot bigger. I have no reservations about him. He’s so aggressive and plays the ball so well in the air. I think he uses his lack of size to an advantage because he’s super quick and he’s able to get around blocks and people can’t get their hands on him.”

Scout 1: “He’s one of the best football players on anybody’s board if he’s on their board. Some guys will think he’s too small. Some guys will take him too high. Really good zone nickel. Really good player. He’s versatile, but the size is a concern. I like big guys. If he adds to your culture, it makes sense.”

DB Coach 1: “I’m not as high on him as some people. I think he’s a really good zone nickel. He has all the production with his eyes on the quarterback. He’s really good at that but does that fit what you do at that position? To me the highest value of the nickel is, can he cover the slot? And you don’t really see that as his major skill set.”

[After the JUMP: additional basketball man?]

FORMATION NOTES: The UFR Glossary is here and you may want to brush up because DeBoer made me bring out rare formations like a true under-center Single-Wing, and weird notations like Z->Y means the WR and TE have switches spots. This is the Go Go setup (aka Single-Wing RB) that UNLV was running way back in September.

I put covered players in parentheses, but Washington also managed to get away with some illegal formations where nobody was covered, in which case I just put a question mark in there, e.g. Go Go Right (?).

"Hide H" was a trick where Rome Odunze hid out at tight end and got M to align in a mismatch. That's him trying not to be noticed as the H-back on the top of the formation (where all the Michigan players are pointing).

I'm using "Flex" for a TE split out wide for a 2x2 set. "Demi" means the TE isn't tight but neither is he in the slot (see #37 on the left). Also we were treated to a skycam version of this game, so I can provide a few canonical examples of terms we're often flinging around, and some new ones. Michigan in the above is in an G front, which means the nose is head up over the guard. Sometimes he was over the tackle, which I call Wide, where the DT is lined up over a tackle.

Letters or numbers (A, AA, 0) in the defensive front that means they've added LBs on the line of scrimmage in that alignment (A gap, both A gaps, head up on the center, etc). Another nuance I can capture with greater accuracy than usual is the difference between Kirby Smart's "Mint" front and a true 404 where the DL are heads up on the tackles—I think a lot of the Tites I charted this year were actually Mint. Michigan got creative too. This is "Crable":

I'll also try to note in the text when Michigan used sim pressures, since that's going to be relevant.

[After THE JUMP: Winning a natty.]