UMHoops.com - Beilein's Recruiting Strategy: Account for Attrition
At umhoops.com, Dylan discusses Coach Beilein's signing strategy and provides an early take on the 2010-11 starting five.
Michigan has now signed four players for the class of 2010: Evan Smotrycz, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jon Horford, and Colton Christian. Jordan Morgan and Blake McLimans [will] be freshmen this year after redshirting which brings the count of new players to six.
...On paper there is now only 1 scholarship remaining in the class of 2011 which means that Michigan could technically bring in only one more player alongside Carlton Brundidge. At this point I expect Michigan to continue recruiting with the intention that they will add two more to the class of 2011.
...In a perfect world you would use roughly 3 of your 13 scholarships every year. The fact that this plan overlooks, [a fact] Beilein knows very well, is that there will be attrition in a recruiting class.
Dylan's early 2010-11 starting lineup prediction:
We constantly harped on the lack of size on last year’s roster and questioned whether Beilein would adjust his style of play to compensate. I don’t think Beilein ever planned on playing small ball but his hand was forced. His West Virginia teams were full of 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-8 swing men who could play inside and out. With the average height of Michigan’s six added players coming out at 6-foot-8, it’s clear that next year’s team will at least be longer and taller.
- One: Darius Morris
- Two: Stu Douglass
- Three: Zack Novak
- Four: Evan Smotrycz
- Five: Blake McLimans
I think you would see some versatility though. Evan Smotrycz and Zack Novak both have the ability to slide up or down a position. This should give Michigan the flexibility to play small, maybe with Novak and Smotrycz at the four and five, or play big, with Novak, Smotrycz, and Christian at the two, three, and four respectively.
Playing big seems like such a novel concept for Michigan after the experience of the last several seasons. Not surprisingly, as we enter the Beilein era's fourth season, Michigan men's basketball roster is now prototypically Beilein in its makeup.
I do like the size we added this year we direly needed it. I just think the Big Ten is going to be loaded this year and it's not a good time to have a inexperienced team. I think we have somewhat of a rough year next year but after we get more experince and add Brundidge the next year I think we will have a good team.
a straightforward statement of opinion like this. Not sure I am ever going to acclimate to such d*mbsh*t behavior on a site where so much brainpower is so conspicuously--otherwise--at work. Petty, petty poop. Definite buzzkill sometimes.
or, you could just let the random negging roll off your back and move on.
I won't write him off just yet, or anyone else for that matter, but managing attrition and maximizing schollies seems to be a big part of the job in this era. If any player is obviously overmatched at the Big Ten level, I could easily see JB getting him a scholly in a lower division and never telling anyone about it. I am guessing that all we would hear is that the player decided to transfer and that the University wishes him well in his future endeavors.
Whatever the case, there could easily be enough "organic" attrition to provide enough schollies for whoever comes aboard next season.
I kept waiting for a break out season that never happened
I think LLP will decide his 5th year option with his play next season. If LLP can improve his handle he will be very valuable to this team.
I disagree about Novak playing the 2, he just isn't a guard, and I think his minutes there will be limited. Hardaway and/or Vogrich are the best candidates to pick up guard minutes next season, Vogrich appeared to have the purest shot on the team and Hardaway comes in with a shooters reputation and possibly more of a guard type than Novak.
over at umhoops. He's such a hustler (also a captain) that he's hard to keep off the floor, never mind his small size and offensive liabilities. I haven't given up on LLP, either--like several of these guys, he almost seemed to play better last year than this year, when everyone seemed to play with a little more confidence (unconsciousness?) Playing with confidence, you could see Morris kicking things up and commanding a faster, longer team, Douglass getting 12-15 points, Smotrycz and McLimans stepping in/up and nailing many threes, lots of problems for opposing Ds in the fact that a guy like Smotrycz can also put it on the floor. Hope they can snag a few bolstering wins early on, carry that into the B10 season.
If Morris can develop into an offensive weapon then next year's team will be infinitely more competitive. I like our team for next year. I'm not saying that they'll be very good, the Big Ten is going to be absolutely loaded, but I like the foundation being set.
Agreed on Morris. Thing is, I don't see this happening until he can develop an outside shot. If you watch games from the second half of the season, defenders were playing 5 ft off of him, daring him to shoot.
2011 is shaping up to be a phenomenal class.
Brundidge and possibly one or two great big men, that sounds good to me.
our starters in the OP worry me. we have 4 white players in our starting 5. no offense, but if our team is consistenly built on slow shooters, were gonna have problems beating really good teams for a really long time
The term you are looking for is "gritty"
I think just assuming our white guys can shoot is a little misguided after last year. Damnit, I hate when stereotypes don't pan out like that!
And I'm sure you have personally scouted all of our incoming/redshirt freshmen and can vouch for their athleticism, or lack thereof.
for Duke.