Statistical Perspective: The Michigan Defense vs. Everybody
After looking over the game-by-game statistics so far for our Defense, I wondered just how far ahead we are when compared to the rest of the country.
All numbers are from CFBstats.com, ranking 130 FBS teams:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category10/sort01.html
For reference, Michigan has played 9 games. Any team in proximity that has played fewer than 9 will be noted otherwise. Furthermore, the given rankings for any team in a given category are for the specific statistic listed.
Yards/Game: 216.2 (#1)
Miami (YTM) comes in second at 264.7 Yards/Game.
*Keeping rutger at or under 54 yards will put our Yards/Game at 200.00 or lower. The only team to fall below 200 Yards/Game in the database is Alabama 2011, but more on that below.
Total Yards Allowed: 1946 (#1)
Southern Miss comes in second at 2260 (only 8 games).
Miami (YTM) is the next-highest P5 at #4 overall at 2382.
*Michigan is the only team out of all 130 to have allowed fewer than 2000 on the season.
Yards/Play: 3.73 (#1)
Clemson comes in second at 4.00 Yards/Play.
*The gap from Michigan to (#2) Clemson, 0.27, is almost the same as the gap from Clemson to (#4) Cincinnati at 0.28.
Passing Yards Allowed: 1101 (#1)
App. State comes in second, at 1258. Miami (YTM) comes in third at 1270 total.
Passing Yards/Game: 122.3 (#1)
Miami (YTM) comes in second at 141.1.
*Although tied for #33 in interceptions (9), we are tied for #3 at TD's allowed through the air (6). We do, however, lead the nation at 47.5 completion percentage.
Rushing Yards Allowed: 845 (#10)
Three teams above us have only played 8 games, so our ranking will likely rise next week.
Rushing Yards/Game: 93.89 (#8)
Not much to say here except that MSU holds opponents to a staggering 71.67 Yards/Game in this category. We ran for 183 yards on them. Taking that out, MSU holds opponents to 57.75 per game. We would need to hold rutger to -267.5 yards on the ground in order to match MSU's defense (not counting their upcoming game against OSU). So not completely out of reach for us.
Historical Comparison
Finally, for historical comparison, the next-closest defense to ours on a Yards/Game basis (in either direction, above or below us) since 2009 is the 2011 Alabama Defense at an unholy 183.6. That is 32.6 Yards/Game below us. Through 13 games, they allowed:
- 938 Rushing Yards
- 1449 Passing Yards
- 3.32 Yards/Play
- 2387 Total Yards
It is almost impossible that we match that production this season, but I am certainly confident that our defense will get even better as this season goes on.
Conclusion
Our Defense is far and away the most dominant in the country, especially against the pass. Any Offensive Coordinator should be sleeping with the lights on for the week before facing us.
If you guys enjoy this, I might do a more in-depth analysis after the season. I might even do a Diary if I am feeling ambitious and particularly bored. If you don't want to see this clogging up the board, then let me know so I have one fewer excuse to use to avoid studying.
All Hail Don Brown. All Hail The King.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
This post gave me all the erections. Gotta be a D joke in there somewhere too right?
November 4th, 2018 at 11:06 PM ^
I imagine there are too many to count.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:31 PM ^
Who else gets a little pissed when we allow a 15 yard pass or run play and your first thought is "that's going to hurt our dominant defensive stats"? This is where we are and it feels good.
MSU has a good rush defense and suspect secondary. I expect OSU to pass 80 times in their game this weekend.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
That's how I was in '97 with our 4th quarter scoring defense. That was pretty amazing.
This year I'm more angry when we allow a sad 75 yard drive and it doubles our total yardage allowed for the day.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
Nothing pisses me off more in a game (aside from refs) than garbage time yardage for the other team to pad their stats. I was angry that PSU ended with over 150 yards (186). I think they were averaging about 460 Yards/Game before facing the Michigan Defense. This is a good feeling to have.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:23 AM ^
Agree. The game should be statistically closed once the opposing coach JamesFranklins. At the JF point, statistics are only tallied on a new page titled "scrimmage".
Speaking of which, I Googled scrimmage. If this is part of B1G ref training, then it explains a lot...
November 4th, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^
Long may he reign.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:09 PM ^
I would love to see a diary version of this later. Awesome job, as this was excellent.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:15 PM ^
Not sure what to make of our defensive numbers other than that they spell dominance. Speed and pressure beats most teams because they are forced to execute precisely and efficiently on every play in order to succeed. What we know is that when we keep other teams off the field, they can neither score nor wear out our defense. And that has been the key to the defensive success along with getting off the field on third down.
So, if you really want to measure a team, do it by checking out how efficient they are in moving the ball or preventing the opposition from doing so.
Our offense isn't as prolific as our defense is stingy but it does the job in scoring at home and less so on the road, ranking in the 50 range in total offense and 18th in points scored per game in the low 30's.
Complementary play spells success even more than dominance on one side of the ball or the other, which explains why Alabama is on top of the world as it rates No. 1 in total offensive yards per game, and ranks 10th in total defense in yards allowed. Bama and Clemson are scoring in the 50's per game, and Alabama is winning with incredible efficiency.
By the way, Rutgers is not only bad as a Big Ten performer, it ranks 129th in all of college football in total offense. So, Michigan will feed all of its defensive stats when it faces the Scarlet Knights in Piscataway.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
It's awesome to think we have hardly any seniors. The caveat of the 16 team was that it was a fortunate set of circumstances that led to Michigan having an unusually high number of seniors. In fact I think 9 starters were seniors plus a handful of contributors.
This year the only seniors starting are Chase, Kinnel and Mone, and then Furbush and Marshall are contributors. It's crazy how quickly they've managed to develop a lot of these guys into big time players.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
The Jim Harbaugh/Don Brown effect. Wait till we see what the defense is like after Don Brown has been here 5 years, with his scheme and players all totally in place.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^
Brandon Watson has been pretty outstanding too. And I'm assuming you're just doing defense because Higdon and JBB are obviously going to be big losses.
It's a great senior class that has led this team incredibly well, but if all we lost were seniors we'd probably be preseason ranked top 3. Unfortunately, our non-seniors are so incredible that many of them will be lost to the NFL early as well. Gary and Bush are no-doubters, Hill / Long / Khaleke will all have decisions. On offense, Shea / Gentry with a decision. We should have replacements in line for Perry. It's going to be a very active mgoblog in the football offseason with how large the variance is for what the team is going to look like next year.
The defensive coaching staff is elite at every position. If we keep all of them, the defense is staying right where it is.
And on offense, we're going to have 4/5 OL come back, all the major receivers coming back, at least 2/3 contributing TEs coming back, and the QB / RB rooms look as strong as they've looked in a decade.
Overall, Harbaugh has gotten this squad to a point where it is built to last.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:09 AM ^
Great stuff. Please post more like this. I’m rooting for a rutger!
November 5th, 2018 at 1:19 AM ^
Kindof sexy that the D could give up and entire extra game of passing yards and still be 35 yards below App. St. for #1.
Nice analysis. This team's certainly hit all the eye tests, but when the facts match the feelings, it just makes for all the more warm fuzzies.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:51 AM ^
What really helps our defense is our offense. You see the time of possession for the offense??? Our defense is fresh in the 2nd half.
November 5th, 2018 at 6:33 AM ^
Love the analysis and comparison with current and historical teams. Would love to see how we rank with historical teams back to 2000 to consider the modern BCS/playoff era.
Keep up the good work! This is encouraging as a UM fan. Go blue!
November 5th, 2018 at 7:12 AM ^
If by the grace of god we do end up facing a Bama then and only then will we be fully tested. That’s a whole different animal than anything we’ve played. That game will have me nervous as nervous could be. I gave OSU a 10% chance in 14, so stranger shit has happened.
November 5th, 2018 at 7:14 AM ^
A couple of interesting stats from that page:
Michigan is 104th in getting a first down via a penalty
Michigan is 114th in penalties.
Even with these 2 stats Michigan is still 4th in time of possession
November 5th, 2018 at 8:36 AM ^
With conferences being so different and nonconference opponents not being equal, I think a better comparison is how UofM is doing in conference contests in comparison to the other 12* teams in the B1G.
Michigan is of course #1 in total D at 186(!!!!!) ypg. Second is Sparty all the way back at 318ypg. That’s an unreal discrepancy. OSU is at 402
YPP has Michigan Number one at 3.56. Sparty #2 at 4.76. Once again, Michigan is so far out in front; the gap is insane. OSU at 5.8 ypp.
Scoring D, Michigan is #1 at 13.6ppg (and that accounts for quite a bit of garbage time scores against Maryland, Wisky and Penn State). Second is Iowa at 18.6. OSU is fifth at 23.6.
And on the offensive side of the ball, Michigan is #3 in scoring and #6 in total offense.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
Thanks OP. Appreciate the effort to provide such insightful stats, even if it is a labor of love and a welcome break from the academic grind.
Two points that bear mention.
As some commentators have already pointed out, time of possession by our Offense has helped the Defense stay fresher than last year, when they started to wear down in the fourth quarter.
Also, the knowledge that the Offense can put enough points on the board to win the game is bound to provide additional incentive to the Defense, as we saw in the game against Northwestern. That fourth-quarter comeback against a pretty good team was a boost to confidence and morale.
Not to deny that the Defense is an elite unit, but this year it is complemented by an Offense that is not only good, but steadily improving. That balance is leading to this year's success and the team's self-confidence. They believe they can go all the way, and they will play hard to do so. And we'll be cheering them on.
Go Blue!
November 5th, 2018 at 5:33 PM ^
So am I safe to assume it took you 2 years after joining to get enough points to make a post? Tuff F'ing crowd.
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Here's MGo - "Buh bye"