Scenario to get UM into playoff

Submitted by umfan83 on

Yes its a long shot but this is IMO Michigan's most liklely path to the playoff:

  • UM over OSU
  • PSU over MSU
  • Iowa over Nebraska (they can't lose this)
  • UM over Iowa
  • Clemson over UNC (concede spot 1 to Clemson so that UNC isn't a threat)
  • Ok St over Oklahoma (think 2 loss Michigan can get in over 1 loss Ok St..at least more likely than 1 loss OU)
  • TCU over Baylor
  • Alabama should probably beat Florida too unless Florida loses to FSU. I could easily see them taking 2 loss Bama over UM to get 2 SEC teams in there.

ND vs Stanford is interesting.  I think they could get in both ways, but it would be harder if ND won.  I think the strength of Michigan over OSU/Iowa is bigger than Stanford over ND/P12S champ.  Plus Northwestern is a common opponent and we know how that worked out for both teams.

This would likely put Michigan over MSU (hurt from not making BTT), Oklahoma (fresh loss to Ok St), OSU (2 straight losses and no BTT) and Florida (fresh loss and hasn't looked all that impressive). 
 
Clemson and Alabama would be playoff locks meaning UM would be competing for 2 spots with:
 
1 loss ND (unless they lose to Stanford)
1 loss Ok St
1 loss Iowa (who they just beat)
2 loss Baylor
 
ND is almost certainly in if they beat Stanford and the above scenario occurs. If they do win, then they could still get in over the other 2 based on 2 very good wins to close the season, and general committee hatred for the Big 12 and their lack of title game.
 
Am I missing anything?  Other than PSU/MSU, the other games not involving Michigan either require favored teams to win or at worst 50/50 games (in the case of TCU/Baylor and OK State/OU given that both are home games).
 
It's unlikely but until PSU loses to Sparty, I will not give up hope!
 
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markusr2007

November 23rd, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^

I'm sorry, but my brain can't even process a PSU win over MSU in East Lansing on Saturday.

Does not compute.

Worst OL in the BIG10 arguably this year vs. one of BIG10's best DLs.

That would be a difficult football game to watch in my opinion.

Thankfully, I've already decided that I won't.

 

 

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Boner Stabone

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^

PSU will not beat MSU, so you can throw all of this what if stuff out the window.  I am only concerned about the important game on Saturday.  With a win there is a good chance Michigan can go to the Rose Bowl.  Maybe this week, MSU can sell out their stadium for their final home game.

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MGoJeezy

November 23rd, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^

MSU beat Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland by a whopping 27 points........ Have you watched them the last two games? If Maryland had any sort of a competent quarterback they would've won that game. They didn't look too hot last game and the same goes for he competence of a offensive coordinator. OSU was running the ball on 3rd and 7+ consistently. I think the playoff is out of question (slim shot) and big ten championship would be the only thing that could erase the taste of the MSU loss out of my mouth. Msu is a good team- not greatness. If hack can get any kind of protection he could torch the MSU secondary. If cook is out it will be a close game no matter what.

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BornInA2

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^

Our best shot was a clean snap or falling on a bad snap on the last play against sparty.

I might get negbanged for it, but that's the kind of critical double-error that top 4 teams avoid in rivalry games against ranked opponents.

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double blue

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^

i would love to see us in the big ten championship and the national championship, but istarted the season saying i would be happy with 7-5.  we have blown through those limits and i am happy to take what we got and lap in the luxury of any additional blessings our harbaugh gives us.

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JTGoBlue

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^

If we beat OSU, the committee should disregard the MSU loss; looking at the overall resume and how the team is playing why wouldn't Michigan get in? Who is really a better team right now overall and in the Big Ten? Alabama, sure, but after that?



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StephenRKass

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^

Our best scenario is to win against Ohio State. Period. That is in our hands. I'd be thrilled is PSU beat MSU. However, that's backing in, which isn't really satisfying. Actually, for me, the big thing is being able to whip Iowa. That would make me happy. Beat the Buckeyes, demolish Iowa, and play in the Rose Bowl. I don't want anything to do with the 4 team playoff this year. Next year is more than soon enough for me.

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DGM06

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

For Michigan or Michigan State: Win B1G, AND one of the following needs to have 2+ losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

 

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doggdetroit

November 23rd, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^

I think the first 4 and 6th conditions would get Michigan into the top 4. 5, 7, and 8 would help but are unnecessary. Despite 2 losses, Michigan would have racked up several quality wins. Resume:

-1 win over a top 10 team (Iowa)
-2 wins over top 15-20 teams (OSU, NW)
-1 win over a fringe top 25 team (BYU)
-1 close loss to a top 10-15 team (MSU)
-1 close loss to a fringe top 25 (Utah)

If the committee truly values strength of schedule (and per their own criteria they do):

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol

Michigan will get in over a 1-loss UNC, a 1-loss OK State, or a 1-loss Baylor. OU wold be eliminated per condition 6. And only one of ND/Stanford can advance.

Final Four (in no particular order):

Clemson
Alabama vs. Florida winner (if UF also beats FSU)
ND vs. Stanford winner (if Stanford wins Pac 12)
Michigan

 

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CoachBP6

November 24th, 2015 at 4:24 AM ^

I have this sick feeling that PSU will beat MSU, OSU beats us, OSU beats Iowa, and gets help to get the #4 spot. They are a very lucky bunch somehow. I'm just hoping if we lose to them that MSU doesn't lay an egg bc I would much rather see them in the 4 than osu



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