Saturday Betting

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on October 19th, 2018 at 9:04 PM

Please post your bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games.  I'll start:

(Last week record: 4-2-1,  Overall season record:  22-20-1)

 

Miami (Ohio) at Army: Noon  Army -7.5

Virginia at Duke:  12:30pm  Virginia +7.5

Western Michigan at Central Michigan 3pm: Western Michigan -4

North Texas at UAB: 7:30pm   UAB -1.5

Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 7:30pm  Kentucky -12

Oregon at Washington St: 7:30pm  Washington -3

Nevada at Hawaii: midnight   Nevada +3

 

EPL early morning bonus play on NBC Sports:

Manchester United at Chelsea 7:30am:  Chelsea wins and both teams to score: +275

 

Noteable spreads of discussion:

Michigan currently sits as a -7.5 point favorite over MSU.  Over/Under 41

Ohio St currently sits as a -12.5 favorite over Purdue (at Purdue)

 

All spreads:

https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/college-football/

Comments

Durham Blue

October 19th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^

Well, I blew my $370 bankroll over the past week playing live dealer blackjack on Bovada.  So I need to deposit.  I'd been losing betting CFB and NFL and thought I'd win it back in BJ.  FML.  Chasing harder than a drunk after a double shot of Highlands Whiskey Red.  Such are the progressions and inevitable regressions of a gambler.  Cue Kenny Rogers.

That said, I like:

Cal -7

Wiscy -24.5

Colorado +17

Nebraska -4.5

Purdue +12.5

Maryland +9

DGM06

October 19th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^

For the casual gambler this is a nice strategy; I’ve referred to it as “fan insurance” in that you’re essentially buying a win with a more than double your money back guarantee if they don’t win.

Or if you can’t stomach receiving gains only if your team loses, take the points and a smaller payout but at least a chance at both a winning bet and a win for your team. 

LSAClassOf2000

October 19th, 2018 at 10:07 PM ^

Someone asked me if I would take a bet and fly a Spartan flag if we lost. I told them I would never publicly debase my alma mater nor would I expect them to do so either in the reverse situation. 

They seemed confused. Perfect state for an MSU fan, I guess.

The Denarding

October 19th, 2018 at 11:06 PM ^

Stanford -3 +105

Nevada +130

UNLV +351

Marshall +125

Michigan State:  +226

New Mexico: +367

Navy:  +337

Oregon:+120

UTSA +711

Mississippi St: +215

Memphis: +289

USC +218

any point teaser I could get on these games as a hedge 

we only do moneylines as they are ever so slightly uncoupled from the spread and the rate of return against win probability is so high when you model it that the probability of a multiple on return exceeds the dollar value of exposure.   Basically if the multiple on your money returned is higher than the your modeled win probability then you should bet it.

Then again I could be completely wrong....

The Denarding

October 19th, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^

Man I really wanna do Purdue but the payoff is mid 300 but the win probability is 20% in the model.    So bummed....there is likely a good teaser where you can get +120 if you are willing to get 9 points only.....

BeatOSU52

October 19th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^

I was looking at my sportsbook during the brief period on Monday when Purdue was at +14 and thought about betting it, but didn't know that'd be the only time it wouldn't be below 14 and now it's around 12.    ... I am afraid it may be one of those games where it's close the whole game and then Purdue falls apart in the 4th quarter and Ohio St wins by about a couple TDs to just cover.

 

An interesting line is Indiana +14.5 /15  vs Penn St.  Could this be a situational play where Penn St "throws in the towel" just a tad now that they're out of big picture of things and it's a close one?  We'll see.  

TennesseeMaize

October 19th, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^

I got Michigan at -7 before it went up half a point. 

Also, I’m taking a flyer on Tennessee at +29 and Kansas City Chiefs at -6 (i know you asked for Saturday bets, but I thought I’d throw that in there. Neg me if you must). 

The Denarding

October 19th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^

Plus home underdogs with underpriced win probability are nice.  UNLV getting ten points is bizarre to me.   Nevada is another one that seems mispriced by the eye test.  Anyway....

The EPL play is an interesting one...

North Texas and Central Michigan to win showed up on the models but not at a high enough odds margin even with teasing the points.   The other games listed didn’t show up but I really like Army and Kentucky to cover with Army a possible tease up to get more return.  I have to ask - what is it you like about Virginia in the game BeatOSU?  

BeatOSU52

October 19th, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^

I really all the Sharp money on Nevada at this point.    Kentucky I think is going to run it down Vandy's throats.

 

To answer your question about Virginia, I like their recent ATS record verses teams with a winning record and am thinking the game may be a low-scoring slugfest that comes down to the last posesession and Virginia loses a close one but still covers.  I like Duke and won on them last week but I also think Cutcliffe is the king of stopping the triple option so that win against GT may be a little overvalued..  I also got that line early in the week with the hook at 7.5 and now it's around 7 at most places FYI.

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 20th, 2018 at 1:46 AM ^

Wow, 1-5-1(push) last week, horrible.  I won't quit my job.  I bet I bounce back this week though.

Miami (Ohio) at Army: Noon  I'll go Miami at +7.5

Virginia at Duke:  12:30pm  Duke -7 (I'm seeing -7)

Western Michigan at Central Michigan 3pm: Western Michigan -4

North Texas at UAB: 7:30pm   UAB North Texas -1.5

Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 7:30pm  Kentucky -12

Oregon at Washington St: 7:30pm  Oregon +3

Nevada at Hawaii: midnight   Hawai'i -3