Saturday Betting
Please post your bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games. I'll start:
(Last week record: 4-2-1, Overall season record: 22-20-1)
Miami (Ohio) at Army: Noon Army -7.5
Virginia at Duke: 12:30pm Virginia +7.5
Western Michigan at Central Michigan 3pm: Western Michigan -4
North Texas at UAB: 7:30pm UAB -1.5
Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 7:30pm Kentucky -12
Oregon at Washington St: 7:30pm Washington -3
Nevada at Hawaii: midnight Nevada +3
EPL early morning bonus play on NBC Sports:
Manchester United at Chelsea 7:30am: Chelsea wins and both teams to score: +275
Noteable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a -7.5 point favorite over MSU. Over/Under 41
Ohio St currently sits as a -12.5 favorite over Purdue (at Purdue)
All spreads:
October 19th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
Well, I blew my $370 bankroll over the past week playing live dealer blackjack on Bovada. So I need to deposit. I'd been losing betting CFB and NFL and thought I'd win it back in BJ. FML. Chasing harder than a drunk after a double shot of Highlands Whiskey Red. Such are the progressions and inevitable regressions of a gambler. Cue Kenny Rogers.
That said, I like:
Cal -7
Wiscy -24.5
Colorado +17
Nebraska -4.5
Purdue +12.5
Maryland +9
October 19th, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^
Hey BeatOSU, I give you props because your record is improving. Nice job.
October 19th, 2018 at 9:20 PM ^
Thanks, it's a marathon not a sprint ha. let's keep it going. And I give you props because you are betting Cal as that team is frustrating as hell in general haha
Also, I meant to say in the OP which I cannot edit , Washington St -3 vs Oregon, not Washington
October 19th, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^
I gotcha. I'll take that one.
October 19th, 2018 at 10:07 PM ^
Michigan State +7.5. Michigan State to win outright. Easier to cope with a loss when you win some money.
October 19th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
Troll elsewhere
October 19th, 2018 at 10:30 PM ^
how is this trolling
I bet Michigan State because then if Michigan loses, I win money and can avoid the otherwise inevitable downward spiral. If Michigan wins, I don't care about losing the money
October 19th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
For the casual gambler this is a nice strategy; I’ve referred to it as “fan insurance” in that you’re essentially buying a win with a more than double your money back guarantee if they don’t win.
Or if you can’t stomach receiving gains only if your team loses, take the points and a smaller payout but at least a chance at both a winning bet and a win for your team.
October 20th, 2018 at 7:30 AM ^
Loser mentality. You don’t bet against your own team
October 19th, 2018 at 10:07 PM ^
Someone asked me if I would take a bet and fly a Spartan flag if we lost. I told them I would never publicly debase my alma mater nor would I expect them to do so either in the reverse situation.
They seemed confused. Perfect state for an MSU fan, I guess.
October 19th, 2018 at 10:17 PM ^
UM to cover and over
OSU to cover
Army, UVA and UAB as outright uoseys
WMU, Vandy, Oregon, Hawaii to cover
October 20th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
Vandy outright
October 19th, 2018 at 11:06 PM ^
Stanford -3 +105
Nevada +130
UNLV +351
Marshall +125
Michigan State: +226
New Mexico: +367
Navy: +337
Oregon:+120
UTSA +711
Mississippi St: +215
Memphis: +289
USC +218
any point teaser I could get on these games as a hedge
we only do moneylines as they are ever so slightly uncoupled from the spread and the rate of return against win probability is so high when you model it that the probability of a multiple on return exceeds the dollar value of exposure. Basically if the multiple on your money returned is higher than the your modeled win probability then you should bet it.
Then again I could be completely wrong....
October 19th, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^
Man I really wanna do Purdue but the payoff is mid 300 but the win probability is 20% in the model. So bummed....there is likely a good teaser where you can get +120 if you are willing to get 9 points only.....
October 19th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
I was looking at my sportsbook during the brief period on Monday when Purdue was at +14 and thought about betting it, but didn't know that'd be the only time it wouldn't be below 14 and now it's around 12. ... I am afraid it may be one of those games where it's close the whole game and then Purdue falls apart in the 4th quarter and Ohio St wins by about a couple TDs to just cover.
An interesting line is Indiana +14.5 /15 vs Penn St. Could this be a situational play where Penn St "throws in the towel" just a tad now that they're out of big picture of things and it's a close one? We'll see.
October 20th, 2018 at 7:32 AM ^
Yea I teased the Indiana and over when it was at 16.5 so I’m getting 22.5....gotta cover that right?
October 19th, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^
I got Michigan at -7 before it went up half a point.
Also, I’m taking a flyer on Tennessee at +29 and Kansas City Chiefs at -6 (i know you asked for Saturday bets, but I thought I’d throw that in there. Neg me if you must).
October 19th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
Plus home underdogs with underpriced win probability are nice. UNLV getting ten points is bizarre to me. Nevada is another one that seems mispriced by the eye test. Anyway....
The EPL play is an interesting one...
North Texas and Central Michigan to win showed up on the models but not at a high enough odds margin even with teasing the points. The other games listed didn’t show up but I really like Army and Kentucky to cover with Army a possible tease up to get more return. I have to ask - what is it you like about Virginia in the game BeatOSU?
October 19th, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
I really all the Sharp money on Nevada at this point. Kentucky I think is going to run it down Vandy's throats.
To answer your question about Virginia, I like their recent ATS record verses teams with a winning record and am thinking the game may be a low-scoring slugfest that comes down to the last posesession and Virginia loses a close one but still covers. I like Duke and won on them last week but I also think Cutcliffe is the king of stopping the triple option so that win against GT may be a little overvalued.. I also got that line early in the week with the hook at 7.5 and now it's around 7 at most places FYI.
October 19th, 2018 at 11:38 PM ^
Purdue is Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week.
October 20th, 2018 at 1:46 AM ^
Wow, 1-5-1(push) last week, horrible. I won't quit my job. I bet I bounce back this week though.
Miami (Ohio) at Army: Noon I'll go Miami at +7.5
Virginia at Duke: 12:30pm Duke -7 (I'm seeing -7)
Western Michigan at Central Michigan 3pm: Western Michigan -4
North Texas at UAB: 7:30pm UAB North Texas -1.5
Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 7:30pm Kentucky -12
Oregon at Washington St: 7:30pm Oregon +3
Nevada at Hawaii: midnight Hawai'i -3
October 20th, 2018 at 5:37 AM ^
Utah St. -14 over Wyoming @ Wyoming
October 20th, 2018 at 8:19 AM ^
Under 41 M/MSU
Purdue +12
Indiana +14.5
Nebraska -4