Run Defense the key to 2010 success
Building on what was discussed here previously (http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ezeh-and-mouton-0), I am going to tell you that if Mouton and Ezeh have breakout years, and our offense / defensive line live up to expectations (slight improvements from last year) - we're going to be a rock solid team, regardless of safety play.
Safeties cost us less games than the LBs last year:
- Iowa
- Purdue
Based on poor play from the linebackers, we lost:
- MSU (197 rushing yards allowed)
- PSU (166 rushing yards allowed)
- Illinois (337!!!!)
- Wisconsin (229)
- Ohio State (251!! - also poor QB play in this game from us)
You could make the argument that the PSU, Illinois (post Roundtree being caught), and Wisconsin games were losses regardless because we lost by 21-25 points. However, I think we win one of these games (Illinois) if we have a solid run defense.
Take it for what it's worth, but our run D cost us 5 games last year, and our defensive backfield only cost us 2. If our run D is improved greatly, but our defensive backfield is stagnant - we will be looking A LOT better in 2010. I'm not saying 10-2 or anything, but I think the standard of 7-5 might be a bit low.
Id be happy with not giving up some many big plays. Like 85 yard touchdown runs, and conversions of 3rd and more than 8. I think this defense can do well to improve in the run game.
Book it.
that Ezeh will again. But if your prediction comes true, I'll be a very happy man indeed.
I might be crazy, but for some reason Obi Ezeh has been one of my favorite players on the team since he started. I'm always the one in my area to yell OOOOOOBIIIIIIII (new MGoCheer?) when he makes a tackle, and my friends look at me funny.
Maybe because when he plays well, he plays really well. Maybe because my stepdad always talks about playing college ball with his dad Pius Ezeh (and incidentally, a man you may know named Lloyd Carr).
Not sure what the reason is, but I really really hope Obi has a good year again. Since they're both on the field at the same time, how about they both tie (with a new NCAA record) for 400 tackles this season? No? Alright, fine, 500.
Mouton at WLB and Ezeh at Mike will hopefully be a force that no one wants to reckon with.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:15 AM ^
It's unlikely that the weakside linebacker will be the team leader in tackles, but okay.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:33 AM ^
I'll settle for "Most times not overpursuing, losing contain on the back side, getting sucked in on play-action, or letting a back or tight-end free over the short middle."
I'll be happy if a safety doesn't lead us in tackles again.
EDIT: I've realized that Stevie Brown was the leading tackler last year, not Kovacs. My bad.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^
The general consensus is that our DL was the strongest unit on defense last year, so does that mean in your analysis that the LBs and secondary simply crapped the bed when it came to stopping the run? Or was our DL performance—aside from BG, of course—not all that spectacular either?
"Fun" stats:
In 2009 we were tied for last in the conference in rushing yards/carry allowed at 4.4 with Purdue. The top teams were OSU @ 2.9, Iowa @ 3.5, PSU @ 2.8, and Wisky @ 2.9. Is it a coincidence that these were the only teams in the B10 with double-digit wins?
Congratulations on the promotion, BTW. Good luck on the coming season. Do you have to fill out CARA-type forms?
August 4th, 2010 at 12:14 PM ^
Our linebackers definitely crapped the bed. Our secondary didn't play badly in run support outside of Mike Williams, really. It was essentially our two ILBs who caused us to suffer.
That being said, our defensive line could have been better. I do think it was the strength of the defense, but Roh got pushed around and Van Bergen was playing out of position. They both played well for what they were asked to do, but they weren't great. And FWIW, Van Bergen took credit (er, blame) for making the wrong check on that 85-yard run against IU. So that's a big chunk of yards right there.
Thanks. lol I don't have to fill out any CARA reports, no. But thanks for your concern.
The key to a winning defense is stopping the run. If you do that, you make the opposing offense one-dimensional, and there aren't many teams that can beat you if you know they have to pass.
The biggest worry I have about Michigan's defense is a smallish line, which means the inside linebackers will have to commit to the run, leaving space underneath the safeties for short-yardage passes that can turn into long ones.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^
depending on the formation and who's on the field. See link for some feel good-li-ness on this topic
http://mgoblog.com/content/unverified-voracity-no-longer-size-sixth-graders
August 4th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^
passing is not longer one dimensional. And the biggest weakness of our linebackers was in covering passes to tight ends.
PSU, which conventional wisdom holds as a simple smash mouth team, completely destroyed us with passing in the flats.
What I saw in the games listed by the OP were a bunch of teams who had realized this weakness, and once they exploited it, and the Michigan D tried to focus on stopping it, the run opened up.
I think this is also the reason Michigan kept it close in the first half, and lost it completely in the second.
My guess on interpreting coach speak is that the simplification of the defense that is being stated over and over is one where certain linebackers are primarily run defenders, and the hybrid linebackers are primarily pass defenders/blitzers.
Hopefully this plays to Obi Ezeh's strength, because many of those successful 3rd and longs, and unexplainable tight end runs into the end zone have Michigan defender #45 chasing them.
I understand there is never one reason, but as far as the key area or area that could see the greatest amount of improvement, it is from the Linebackers.
It's easy to blame the safeties on runs that go for a touchdown, but in today's game where 3 and 4 receivers are typical, it's from the linebackers that you have to hope they can cover one on one.
well, while I'm on this soapbox, the other comment I think is misguided is the statement of "put more men on the line, or blitz more people". Throwing to the flats is the offense's answer to a defense "loading the box" or sending a blitz.
go watch last year's superbowl again and count up the running plays and successful blitzes. Then go count up the pass attempts and completions. That match up was a passer's delight, but I think the passing had many dimensions.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:03 AM ^
And the biggest weakness of our linebackers was in covering passes to tight ends.
Dude did you not read any of my post above? Are you assigning all of those rushing yards to the D-Line and Safeties (where a player like Kovacs was more than competent against the run)?
That makes no sense. I don't understand GERG's defense, but I do understand player roles on the defense. DT's plug running lanes, DE's rush the passer, LB's make tackles, and DB's cover the passing game.
August 4th, 2010 at 12:38 PM ^
I think a line of Campbell, Martin, and Van Bergen would hold up fine against power running teams assuming Campbell shows typical first-year-to-second-year improvement. If we have to play Banks instead of Campbell on most non-passing downs, we may have a size problem.
No team is stacked at Every position. But if Mouton and Ezeh meet their potential (the please god let it be "if" for 2010), I would say we're quite stacked in the Front 7. This can hide many DB mistakes. They're seniors, and will probably define this team.
Even in today's game, the defense will panic if it can't stop the run
August 4th, 2010 at 12:01 PM ^
don't forget rr mentioned moundros working in at lb as well. i find that interesting and discussed very little.
I have many concerns this season, but I think we have good depth on the Dline, and our LB's should be improved with GERG running the show. I think Mouton is going to have a great year.
The secondary scares the shit out of me, but it is what it is. Luckily, our offense will be scoring 35 points per game.
I think some sound statements are being made, summed up from the above comments.
Michigan needs
Better LB play from the standpoint of run-stopping, not a long shot to improve some.
Better D-line play, mostly some greater consistency in stopping run.
If Offense puts up numbers it will force other teams offense out of thier game plan, making our D better.
Michigan will have a better season most likely on all statistical fronts and importantly in the biggest category W/L column.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^
Not turning the ball over and making plays to keep drive going that is what we need first. I feel like our D last year was always put into bad situations because either DRob through a pick or fumbled along with Tate.
Those 2 need to improve on the turnovers first, the O needs to grind up yards on the ground and our D needs to keep plays in front of them. I don't want to see the Red Sea being opened in our front 7 for running plays and I sure as hell don't want to see Lil Bro Qb's picking up 40 yards on the ground on a 3 & 7.
I think GRob will have this D tackling and there is talent and some depth as well this year so lets give them a chance who knows they may end up being ok this year. Death Roh is going to be a beast and lets not sleep on Marvin Robinson this year he may be the key to the D.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:06 AM ^
I think your argument holds weight for exactly two games last year - PSU and OSU.
Do you see the rushing totals above from our opponents? How big of a number does it need to be for it to get to your head that "our rush defense was atrocious last year"?
I'd actually argue the opposite:
- Defense stops the run, gets more third and outs.
- Offense has the ball more.
- Even with NO improvement, the increase in time of possession = more points.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^
this porst to RR stat.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:15 AM ^
all of your posts are funny to me, because a monkey is dressed like a human.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:25 AM ^
With a pistol.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:35 AM ^
I think we will be pretty good against the run this year. I like our D-line and I think our Linebackers have potential for growth this year. Ezeh and Mouton need to improve and I think Roh will be a beast. I am more scared of what will happen with the DB's, I really wish DW would of stuck around one more year. The good thing is, even though we are young we actually have a little depth back there now which is a plus. I also think as mentioned before, a good offense in less turnovers this year will go a long way in helping out the defense.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:46 AM ^
If the players remain disciplined we can stop anybody. We have the talent. Our linebackers need to just not blow assignments. That was when we gave up the big plays. We have the speed and talent. Just need to execute.
August 4th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^
I believe Obi is going to have a great Senior year. Rodriguez said he stepped up to the challenge in the spring, and won the Iron Wolverine award as well. He knows he had a poor year in '09 and needs to step it up. I think Gerg will have him in the right position, and he will be confident in that position as well. He's done the offseason work and has the right attitude based on the quotes I've read. Time will obviously tell, but I think he shines in '10. JMO.