Risk Day 31 - It's The Bad Roll We Knew Was Coming. Time To Regroup And Hit Back HARD.
Well that's frustrating as hell. Things were looking good yesterday with our star advantage....we were well positioned to deliver a haymaker to Ohio State's stomach. Unfortunately, the terrible RNG that the Buckeyes experienced a few turns ago (-4.9 vs. expected) came back around and threw us a sucker punch instead (-3.9 vs. expected).
We knew that this would probably happen, though. It's the nature of the RNG-beast. Setbacks happen (and will likely happen again), so the question is....how do we respond? Do we get frustrated and throw up our hands? Or do we re-group, recruit a few friends, and keep punching?
Ohio State is not going to stop. We know that. They've decided to play this year and our success is all the motivation they need to go hardcore. While we still have a distinct numbers advantage over them, they are going to do everything they can to close the gap and beat us. So we need to keep pushing.
You guys have already gone above and beyond expectations (we didn't have 1000 players until turn FORTY-FOUR last round), but we have to throw all reasonable expectations out the window if we're going to beat Buckeyes. We need more players, we need more power, and we need to keep our foot on the gas until Turn 50 is in the books. We have just three weeks left before a champion is crowned. Let's do everything in our power to bring it home for the Maize and Blue.
Steps To Play Every Day With Hyperlinks: Attached to this post is a PDF with easy to digest instructions and hyperlinks. Below is the same information written out.
- Sign up for a https://reddit.com/ account if you don’t have one already
- Visit https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team
- Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ - click “Login using Reddit” – Click “Get an Assignment”
- Return to https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Scroll to the bottom of the page and execute your assignment (Note: Simply clicking action so that it becomes highlighted gray confirms the move. There’s no submit or confirm button needed)
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
I’m in, and followed my order to (edited).
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Never give up, never surrender!
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
And yes, go fight in the hills, and in the streets, and all that.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
Wormer...... DEAD!
I tried to post the "never give up" image of the frog grabbing the pelican's throat but the Huel update prevented it.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
I don't mean to talk too much strategy here, and maybe it's just me, but it just seems like we've been too spread out. Trying to attack too many different areas leaves our stronghold vulnerable (West Coast in this case). With our star power we should be able to defend our stronghold from getting overrun and really just attack 2-3 territories per turn. I didn't get us trying to get into Colorado/Oklahoma/Texas on top of trying to get into the Northeast on top of trying to defend the West. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is looking really good right now.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
I am following orders each day like a good solider.. but this /\
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
There are diminishing returns to throwing more firepower at something. I'm a tiny bit too high rn but I can explain in a couple hours.
The marginal value of an additional start decreases for every extra start you use. For some examples lets say they opposing team puts 100 stars on a territory.
- Michigan stars: 1. Odds: 1%. Value:1%/star
- Michigan stars: 50. Odds: 33%. Value: 0.66%/star
- Michigan stars: 100. Odds: 50%. Value: 0.5%/star
- Michigan stars: 200. Odds: 66%. Value: 0.33%/star
- Michigan stars: 900. Odds: 90%. Value: 0.1%/star
As the number of stars you allocate increases they become less valuable. Far more efficient to put 1 star on 10 territories than 10 stars on 1 territory.
That's the basic theory behind attacking everything anyway.
I get that, but when you're Michigan and you have (by far) more star power than everyone else, use that to increase your ODDS, not worry about diminishing the VALUE of each star. Plus, the strategy of maintaining a base helps even more when you don't have to allocate any stars to certain territories because you have surrounded those territories with your own, hence they can't be attacked.
Georgia Tech is in a really envious position. They have no natural rivals in the game, so they have been able to grow without much resistance. They are neutral with everybody, so they just scoop up areas that others don't prioritize.
Additionally, nobody is interested in pushing them to take a side, because then they'll just take the other side. So essentially any team that tries to challenge GT would be helping their rival win the game.
As for spreading ourselves thin...it's a hard balance. We're basically in a battle with Ohio State, which is the second most powerful team in the game. And we're pretty much playing the same game, but on opposite coasts -- try to fortify our "home base" while disrupting theirs. The issue is that TAM declared war on us awhile ago, so we've also had to deal with them trying to push us from Texas. AND, on top of all of that, many of the eliminated players hate us (because Michigan), so we've had to keep an eye on Chaos, too.
In other words, nobody wants to spread us thin...but there are a lot of factors that limit our freedom to act differently.
I get all that, and I know it won't be perfect because of RNG. But if we're in a battle with Ohio State, why put a lot of resources to attack and get into Texas/Oklahoma? And, from what I've seen, Chaos has not really been coming after Michigan. In fact, they seem to be way more intrusive into Ohio State, if anything.
I'll stick my assignments because it's obviously best to have a united front, but let's just say I would have a little different strategy.
Important thing to note here is that regardless of if we're trying to get into Texas/Oklahoma we will still be under attack by A&M.The difference being us attacking/defending territory in Texas against A&M or A&M attacking us in Arizona State closer to where our stronghold is.
Putting resources into Texas/Oklahoma provides the opportunity to capture TCU and then border 6 different territories in Texas. Now A&M has to worry about defending those 6 territories instead of trying solely focusing on attacking us in Arizona and into California.
The reason Wisconsin and Georgia Tech are able to do what they're doing is because they have no enemies. Georgia Tech literally doesn't have enemies besides Chaos, they're neutral with everyone else. Wisconsin is allied with Ohio State and doesn't have to worry about anything else besides Nebraska, therefore they have a bunch of protected territories in Michigan.
We aren't given that luxury. Regardless of what we do A&M and Ohio State will devote a ton of resources at us. You could say that maybe we should just give up the territories in the Northeast and then focus on getting protected territories back in California. Okay, then what happens to all of the territories in the northeast? Ohio State captures all of them uncontested and now they have 20 protected territories and 30 total AND they can now devote 100% of their resources on us in California. Now it's impossible to recover enough ground on OSU's massive stronghold to win the game by the end of turn 50. It's the same situation if you think we should abandon the west coast to focus on the northeast/midwest.
Hopefully this provides some transparency of the strategy.
Edit: I would also check the recent history of chaos in Hawaii and SDSU if you want to see how badly they're itching to attack us
I am following orders but I agree with the folks who think we are spread too thin.
Look at Wisconsin. They have 20 territories and 10 of them are protected. That allows them to punch above their star power. Today we have 0 protected territories, yesterday we had 1, the day before we had 2. It seems like it has never been a priority. We will win the game by having the most territories not by fighting a 3-front war ...
Thank you! You explained it way better than I did. Having 0 protected territories is a huge issue, and honestly, I believe could have been (almost) totally avoidable.
Wisconsin stayed in the area they started in, which was an advantage. OSU had an easier path to the NE. The NE and SE are the best locations. OSU and GT have really good starting points and capitalized. Early in the game Michigan was getting squeezed by Wisco and OSU. Michigan decided to head to the SW try try to claim a corner. That took a few days to move the base to a place far from the starting point. So it was harder to consolidate. But holding the SW while being friendly with GT isn't a bad plan given the lack of options. As for the 3 front war you cant prevent teams from coming after you. Thats what TAMU decided.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.
Just my .02 but I agree with this strategy of concentrating where our power base is at.
That said, like a good soldier I follow orders.