question about expert predictions
So it seems like we are slated to finish middletons of the Big Ten by almost every poll -
http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/michigan-picked-to-finish-mi…
6 or 7 depending (always behind MSU, which sucks).
My question is - do football teams ever "surprise the f*ck out of everyone"? By that, I mean do teams ever experience exponential growth in their success, rather than gradual growth? If so, can you give an example?
I often hear people on this board saying we are going to, but this is generally just conjecture.
you remember the '97 team that came off of 3 straight 8-4 campaigns. i'm sure you also remember the '06 team that came off of a sloppy 7-5 season. we can also look at our current coach's history. RR's first season he went 3-8, the next season he went 9-3 in the regular season. so yea it can does happen.
Wasn't the '97 team unranked at the beginning of the season? Preseason polls are a joke. It will never happen but the "talk" of releasing the first true poll after week four would be ideal.
Preseason polls mean a helluva lot more than they used to. Unless a team shits the bed in a most unflattering way, (is there a "flattering" way to "shit the bed"?) chances are that a highly ranked team at the beginning of a season is going to find its way back near the top of the BCS rankings by the end of the season, even with a loss (or two). Reason given by most pundits, (I'm looking at you, Mark May): "You have to consider their 'Body of Work' ... Blah, blah, blah...."
It is fun listing to Lou Holtz and Beno Cook talk of ND's National Championship run every preseason, and Mark (I went to Pitt but have a man crush on USC) May's prediction got to shit in week 2.
I'd say preseason polls don't matter that much to BCS teams. Michigan plays in an improving Big Ten, has two BCS teams and an expected top level MAC team on their OOC schedule. If UM puts up a good record, they will get what they deserve in the end.
I agree with you in the case of a Boise State, for example. If they start the season where they're expected to in the polls (top 5), it is going to be pretty hypocritical for the pollsters to keep them out of the title game if they go undefeated. They are going to have to be leapfrogged by teams with worse records, in all likelihood to be kept out. But, if they start out the season in the 20-25 range or unranked, that's too many teams to climb to get to the promised land.
So bascially, if you're MIchigan, preseason polls don't really matter. If you're Boise or TCU, they're pretty huge.
Off the top of my head (everyone watch out!) 2007 Oregon was unranked and predicted to be at the bottom of the Pac-10. Saban's seconded year at Alabama they were predicted to be mediocre and finished what 11-2?
I'm not sure where they were predicted to finish but from 2-10 (2006) to 9-4 surely surprised many folks, and hey, if they can do it with Zooker at the helm and a young Juice Williams, why cant we with Rich Rod and a young Forcier/Robinson/Gardner?
The current UM situation is a bit unique. We are getting more talented each year. Last year we started walk-ons...and our walk-ons were freshmen. So it could come to pass that getting a team full of scholarshipped players is considerably better than a team that is not.
If Denard wins the QB job, our offense will be quite a bit different than last year. So, both the offense, by way of dilithium, and the defense, by way of 11 scholarshipped starters, could be vastly improved. I don't know what is likely, but if the team took a huge step forward, people would look back at those two facts and say..."yeah, that makes sense."
You should just do exactly what analysts say in the stock market since they are experts. Everyone saw the crash coming 2 years ago.
People will be wrong. The majority of people are stupid even the so-called "experts".
Someone created a chart on this a long while back (I wanna say before the start of the '09 season) that showed the delta in wins after really bad seasons. If anyone remembers where that is located on this site, it would be helpful to the OP.
Numbers don't lie, never put faith in preseason predictions from 'experts.'
Team has much to prove and will. Go Blue!!!
Happens every year in almost every conference.
Illinois good and bad in a 2 year stretch, Mich 06, Iowa last year, GT 2 years ago, Kansas in Orange Bowl, Wisc last year, Alabama 2 years ago etc etc etc...
There's a reason they are called "expert predictions" and not "expert 100% true outcomes"
Even an expert can only speculate based on past performances, player experience, etc etc.. Hopefully all of these predictions will motivate our team to prove them wrong.
Personally, I'd rather start the season underrated than overrated. Plenty of examples in which "experts" were wrong re: Michigan and NCAA teams mentioned above.
This happens in the NFL all the time too. As a lifelong Jets fan, it seems like they impress when picked to do poorly and disappoint when expected to do well. Before the season started pretty much nobody in the MSM saw them making the playoffs, not to mention the AFC champ game. Who saw NO winning the SB last year? I just looked up SI's preseason power rankings for '09 and NO was 24th. AZ making the SB 2 yrs ago?
I wouldn't mind one or two journalists going out on a limb and predicting that we have a vastly improved season (or at least the potential for such) based on a lot of factors of which we're all aware, but I have no qualms being the underdog and surprising folks.