OT: Update - now on verge of most historic upset pro champ ever

Submitted by superstringer on

Author's note:  This is about soccer.  If you find the subject-matter distasteful, please move along.  But if you are a SPORTS fan, even if you don't follow soccer, you SHOULD read this.

With the Tottenham Hotspurs (at home) "drawing" (=tying) West Brom Albion 1-1 today, England's Premier League is now on the verge of the MOST AMAZING sports championship just about EVER.

First-place Leicester City Foxes are 7 points clear with only 3 games remaining in the season.  At 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw (=tie), the only way Tottenham can catch LC is if LC loses at least one and either loses or draws (=ties) the other two, AND Tottenham wins all three.

In other words -- Leicester needs only ONE WIN in its last 3 games to win the title.

THIS IS JUST ABOUT UNPRECEDENTED.  Consider:

- With 9 games to go last year, LC was in last place, facing "relegation" to the next-lower division (confusingly called the Championship) (although that's not as confusing as the next-next-lower tier, the 3d tier in England called--wait for it--the First Division).  LC went on to win 7 of their last 9 to stave off relegation, and they just didn't stop winning.

- They were famously 5000-to-1 at the start of this year to win the Premier League.  That's the same odds you can get for Christmas being the warmest day in the UK of the year, or Chloe Kardashian being elected president in 2020.  (Although...)

- No team outside of five has won the Premier League since its inception just over 20 years ago.  IIRC no team outside of a cabal of six teams has gotten close, for that matter.  And by "close" I mean top 5.

- The cost to LC to assemble its ENTIRE team (through "transfer fees") is about $50 million -- which is less than the cost of the transfer fees for some INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS on their heavyweight competitors like Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, etc.  The entire salary base of LC is a small fraction of the top teams.

- None of LC's top players this year were on any major team's radar -- ever.  Their top goal scorer, James Vardy, is 29 and was in much lower divisions until the last couple of years.  Their best player (and just voted this year's POTY for the entire League), Mahrez, was plucked out of a 2d-tier French team.  Their captain, Morgan (see what I did there), was considered a washed-up never-has-been.  Now -- Vardy, Mahrez, and their top defensive midfielder Kante will all command "massive" transfer fees this summer.  (Although Vardy's age could be an issue for him.)

- European soccer is not designed to ensure parity -- it's designed to ensure the Haves keep what they have.  No draft (it's a free-for-all to sign and develop players.)  No mandatory minimum on salaries.  No maximum on salaries (although recently you can't spend more than you earn...but when you earn 30X as much as another team....)

There is literally no equivalent in the US pro leagues, for sure.  Mandatory salary minimums, the draft, etc. make even unlikely champions not all that totally unlikely -- the moneyball A's, the 'Greatest Show on Turf' Rams, etc.

TUNE IN if you can.  Just watch the spectacle of LC possibly winning the most unlikely, unpredictable championship, EVER.

But while they need just one win, LC's 3 games remaining aren't joke-easy games.  Next up is an away game at Manchester United, who while not their best ever team, is in 5th place.  Then comes a home game against Everton, who again isn't having their best season but they have plenty of ability to score (defending is their problem).  Finally they'd be on the road at defending champ Chelsea, who is having a VERY sub-par season.  But if LC were to lose the next two and have to win at Chelsea, the pressure will be unbelievable.

Chelsea might still have something to say beforehand, however.  Chelea and Tottenham are both London teams, and thus arch rivals.  Tottenham plays Chelsea this weekend.  So even if Man United beats LC... if Chelsea beats Tottenham, it's OVER.  Chelsea players are already quoted as saying they want to stop their rival from winning the title, so this weekend's Chelsea-Spurs game could be a bloodbath.  In a good-to-watch sort of way.

Seriously -- if you made a movie about this, nobody would have believed it.  Except Cubs fans like myself, possibly.

Sad note to Gunners fans:  Frankly, I don't care about Arsenal either way.  (I would point out, though, you do have a Frenchman for a manager.)  Anyway, it's fun to tease Arsenal fans, and once again, we can point out, a year in which Man United, and Man City, and Chelsea all SUCK... you STILL can't win the title.

 

socalwolverine1

April 25th, 2016 at 7:36 PM ^

Great to see Leicester and Spurs spoiling the table for the usual self-entitled clubs (MU, MC, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal)!  

And I agree, the style of play from Leicester and Spurs is so refreshing!  To see Spurs averaging more than one goal per game is a head-shaker (sarcasm) after all the ineptitude/impotency of the last ten years!  But you're right, the story of the campaign is Leicester and its band of no-names.  

Bocheezu

April 25th, 2016 at 7:40 PM ^

4-0.  I don't know anything about Swansea, but they looked like a team that can't play from behind (17th in GF) and they gave up a goal 10 mins in.  So that game fell apart in a hurry.

I've just happened to get into EPL for the first time this year, simply because I found the games were at an ideal time -- mornings on the weekend when there is literally nothing else going on.  It's great.  

I like the perfectly balanced schedule, no playoffs.  The refs are horrible, though.  The penalty they called last week to bail out Leicester against West Ham was some top-grade bagman bullshit.

http://www.nbcsports.com/video/leonardo-ulloa-forces-draw-leicester-cit…

Blue Noise

April 25th, 2016 at 8:32 PM ^

Nice post but minor clarification: the third tier of English football is League One, not the First Division.
League One was actually the Second Division prior to the 04-05 season when they restructured the Football League (the formerly highest collection of leagues in the English football pyramid prior to the top clubs breaking away to form the Premier League before the 92-93 season), and before the Premier League existed League One was technically the Football League Third Division.



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OldMaize16

April 25th, 2016 at 8:54 PM ^

I remember checking the table a month or two ago and seeing Leicester at the top and was confused/amazed at the same time. It's even more mindblowing now that theyre actually going to win this thing

goblueram

April 25th, 2016 at 9:21 PM ^

That's an awesome story, and great for them. However, every professional sports league should be won through some sort of post season playoff or tournament rather than just a regular season, in my opinion.

Gulogulo37

April 25th, 2016 at 9:51 PM ^

The regular season is more representative of how good a team is usually. Postseasons just keep getting bigger and longer because of the money. Although I guess some leagues like the NFL have so much parity that they need a crapshoot playoff to crown a winner.

The Warriors might not repeat as champs despite obviously being the best team this year because of Curry being injured.

goblueram

April 25th, 2016 at 10:11 PM ^

I agree that not the "best team" always wins in the playoffs. But having to battle through a do or die playoff series is the true test of what a team is made of. Guess we're just spoiled by the intensity and desperation of the Stanley Cup playoffs that can't be matched in any other sport.

YaterSalad

April 26th, 2016 at 6:22 AM ^

There are separate tournaments to get the do-or-die, best head-to-head, match ups you are looking for ... There is the Champions League which takes essentially the top four teams from the major leagues - Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera, EPL, and German Bundesliga - and puts them against each other to be the best in Europe. There is also the FA Cup which is the English play-off. Granted, most of the big name teams use second squads to compete in this tournament. But it's purpose is to have a play-off style winner of English. The two play for the Community Shield to kick-off the next season. So they crown two champions - just like the Big Ten in basketball - and then they play each other.

snowcrash

April 26th, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^

Tournaments make sense when it isn't possible for every team to play every other team, such as with the NFL and any college sport. In the EPL and most other soccer leagues, every team plays home and home with every other team so schedule issues aren't a concern. Also, with tournaments some games are inevitably decided on penalty kicks which is a half-ass (if arguably necessary) way to determine a winner. The standings are the fairest way to determine the league winner.

MGOTokyo

April 25th, 2016 at 9:28 PM ^

however, I'm still a sports fan and do follow WC and Olympic games.  Soccer is very popular here in Japan.

This was a great OT, and I hope that you will keep us posted on what follows.  I'm busy (lazy) and probable won't make the effort on my own.

Go Leicester City!!!

Rabbit21

April 25th, 2016 at 9:37 PM ^

Excellent write-up, just as a Spurs fan I have one small question: what the hell are the Tottenham Hotspurs? FYI it's either Tottenham Hotspur(singular as the club name) or Spurs as the mascot name.

As an aside the Arsenal shade was fantastic, two thumbs up!!!!



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GoBlueBrooklyn

April 25th, 2016 at 10:54 PM ^

Kante has been absolutely incredible for them, by far the most underrated player in the League this year. And Mahrez at £400K? Amazing. If anyone but my team have to win the league, happy it is them. I remember everyone laughing when they hired Raneiri... who's laughing now? Well done to LCFC.

ccdevi

April 25th, 2016 at 11:02 PM ^

I've been telling friends it would be something akin to Purdue winning the college football national title. Great story, really hope they do it.

pedro441

April 26th, 2016 at 12:21 AM ^

Some perspective on how the season has gone in the league. Plot shows points behind as a function of matchday for each team. You can see that Leicester City has never been too far out of the lead. Man City looked like the odds-on favorite for the first half of the year. And Arsenal was there in the middle. But in the final third, Leicester City has pulled away:

https://c2.staticflickr.com/2/1442/26557259532_85212251e0_b.jpg

https://c2.staticflickr.com/2/1442/26557259532_85212251e0_b.jpg

superstringer

April 26th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^

My immediate take from that very interesting chart:  CRYSTAL PALACE HAS TANKED.  I knew they were slipping, but... wow they went from respectable to way way down pretty quickly.

Everton, too, has dropped fairly quickly, but as far.

And, finally, I'd have thought Villa would be in the red a lot earlier.  What a painful year for them -- can't say they didn't have it coming.  And only further confirms, Guzan is not the guy for us between the posts.

socrking

April 26th, 2016 at 7:59 AM ^

Thanks for this post. I grew up playing soccer but don't follow epl. I had heard the chatter about lc but couldn't find a solid write up explaining everything. This was perfect.



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hammermw

April 26th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^

My wife who hates sports except for the Olympics is even watching. She just ordered a Leiceister City jersey. She loves underdogs in anything.

 

To me the best analogy would be a MAC school winning the National Championship in football. European soccer and American college football are both heavily slanted towards the haves.