The Official Rivals *Rating Prediction Thread

Submitted by Dreisbach1817 on May 8th, 2011 at 12:37 PM

As most know, Rivals is releasing its stars this upcoming week.  Now, I know stars aren't everything (see Braylon, Omameh, the soon to be breakout class of 2011, etc., etc.) but they do make excellent cocktail party conversation and provide a basic measuring stick for recruiting success. 

In addition, most of you know that in contrast to Scout, Rivals is known to be less Midwest friendly (some might say less Michigan friendly but I think that was overblown) so I am guessing that Rivals will not provide Michigan the same number of 4-stars as Scout has.

I do think guys like Wormley, Day, Pipkins, Reeves, Morgan, Burbridge will all be 4 stars. 

Here's my guess for current Michigan Commitments.  Please don't confuse my prediction with my assessment of these players' actual ability:

Bolden - 4 star

Braden - 3 star

Brown - 3 star

Funchess - 3 star

RJS - 4 star (top 100)

Ojemudia - 3 star

Ringer - 3 star

Ross - 4 star (top 150)

Stacey - 3 star

Williams - 3 star

Silent Commit DE from Novi - 3 star

Comments

ken725

May 8th, 2011 at 2:50 PM ^

I'm not too sure about Ojemudia being a 4 star.  If anything he might be a very high 3 star on the brink of a fourth star.  There is also the matter of his position, I think where Rivals projects him can affect his ranking.  

Bb011

May 8th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^

Braden, stacey, and williams are the only people that I will think will be 3*'s. Which is totally fine to me, as it was proven on this very site, midwestern OL are normally underrated.   

superman26

May 8th, 2011 at 1:03 PM ^

I believe your predictions are dead on, we already know that Bolden, RJS, and Ross will be 4 stars.  I just don't think that anyone else has the offer lists that rivals would consider to be of 4 star caliber. I think all of our recruits are amazing but this is just how rivals is.

Irish

May 8th, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^

Bolden - High 3/low 4 

Braden - 3 

Brown - High 3/low 4 

Funchess - 3  

RJS - 4

Ojemudia - 3 

Ringer - 3 

Ross - 5 

Stacey - low 4/high 3

Williams - 3  

Godin -  3

 

Irish

May 8th, 2011 at 2:27 PM ^

OSU and ND offered with the wealth of defenders in ohio this year and ND looking for maybe 1 in the entire class, plus Monte Kiffin and a Nebraska offer; If there is a 5 star in michigan this year, and I think there is, he is it hands down.

Mgoblue2011

May 8th, 2011 at 1:13 PM ^

Basing this off of offer lists and the fact that I think the top 7 or 8 players in Michigan will be four stars I'll go with this
<br>
<br>Bolden - 4 star
<br>
<br>Braden - 3 star
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<br>Brown - 4 star (he has some quite good offers and is top 247)
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<br>Funchess - 4 star (6th or 7th in Michigan)
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<br>RJS - 4 star (top 100)
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<br>Ojemudia - 4 star (the other of 6th or 7th in Michigan)
<br>
<br>Ringer - 3 star (could easily be a 4 star but I think the offer list might stop rivals from giving him it)
<br>
<br>Ross - 4 star (top 75)
<br>
<br>Stacey - 3 star
<br>
<br>Williams - 3 star
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<br>I think we will have at least 4 four star guys. Pretty much any of the guys besides stacey, braden and williams have a very good chance for one. Either way I am really happy with how this class is going. But I'm still hoping to see some good star rankings for this class and end up a highly ranked class even if it's only for good press.
<br>
<br>

michgoblue

May 8th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^

I generally agree with your predictions, but I think that at least 1-2 of these guys that you have ad 3 stars will get 4.
<br>
<br>Regardless, I am loving this class because it is building quality (high 3 star or better) depth at key positions and taking talent directly out of Sparty's hands. Our defense is going to be stacked at LB, DE and DL for years to come.

Little Brown J…

May 8th, 2011 at 1:15 PM ^

Bolden - 4

Braden - 3

Brown - High 3/Low 4

Funchess - High 3/Low 4

RJS - 4

Ojemudia - High 3/Low 4

Ringer - High 3/Low 4

Ross - 4

Stacey - 3

Williams - 3

Godin - 3

Most likely that Brown will be a 3, with Funchess, Ringer, and Ojemudia having the best shot for a 4th star, in that order.

big10football

May 8th, 2011 at 1:21 PM ^

If Ojemudia ends up as only a 3-star then he has one of the most impressive highlight reels I've seen from a 3-star. He physically dominates blockers and has good speed. I think when it is all said and done, he will be a 4-star, even if he's a 3 star in the initial rankings. I also think Ross could be a 5-star.

Bluestreak

May 8th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^

Apart from James Ross who might get the 5th star, do we have a good shot with any other 5 star rated player at this point?

Personally I'd love to see us land a 5 star rated OL

MGoGarbs

May 8th, 2011 at 4:00 PM ^

that Rivals and Scout generally don't rate committed kids as high as comparable uncommitted kids, for whatever reason. So don't be surprised if our commits are on the lower end of the rankings.if that happens.

That said, I'm overjoyed with how well Hoke and co. have recruited, and I strongly feel that the 2012 class is going to set a strong benchmark for years to come.

big10football

May 8th, 2011 at 4:05 PM ^

I think at this time of year, the committed kids will be ranked just as high as if they were uncommitted. It seems like the kids that hold out longer are rated higher because they end up accumulating more offers throughout the year. For instance, if Kaleb Ringer waited until signing day to announced, he would probably have a much more impressive offer sheet and, hence, would be ranked higher.

Wolfman

May 8th, 2011 at 9:46 PM ^

The reason for kids gaining more stars as others commit is due largely to the recruiting services wise, albeit disengenous practice of moving the uncommitted up to retain the interest of the fans.

For example, M fans take far more delight in watching the recruiting process of a player who has verbally stated interest in UM, and when that kid suddenly receives a 4th star from Rivals, the interest exponentially goes up. It's a time-tested practice of keeping subscribers interest piqued and goes back to the days when we received all our recruiting news via the US Postal service in the form of magazines.

Geographical location plays a huge role in the number of stars assigned to any given player also. It was just two years ago when one of the Rival writers let slip that "Alabama is so loaded this season, we couldn't possibly assign a 5* to all the deserving players."  Further on in his breakdown of the mechanizations behind the final rankings was, "It's important to keep interest up throughout all the regions; therefore, when we assign a 4 to an AL hs player that deserved a 5, it's very likely that a CO player who is really a 3* might end up with a 4th....." 

This is paraphrasing somewhat, but the decreased number of 5*s, when it's only an arbitrary measure separating the kids in the first place, is inarguably a guarantee that it's a crap shoot to determine who the real top 25 are.

Because statistics show that the number of stars does have direct correlation to future NFL picks, I don't think it unwise to conclude picking the top 300 - 4* and above, is not that difficult, but  because the talent gap is impossible to determine precisely, is also the reason so many 3*s excel and right on down to those with NR after their name come draft day. 

I did a breakdown on RR's last class after so many Fort members were voicing their displeasure at the number of 3*s, with many stating this was proof that RR just couldn't recruit the talent necessary to compete in the Big X. The final stats- Rivals using the "RR" final number, showed that his class was separated by .65 from a LC recruited class of three years earlier. Further, based on the fact his class had 6 more players, the final numbers were actually more favorable. Jibrel Black, for instance, who's final numbers came in at about 1/10 the finals of Richard Ash, was, imo, just as deserving of a 4* as was Richard Ash.

In the end, it all goes back to what Bo said years ago, "One third will be what you expected or better, one third will contribute, and one third will simply not produce. "

The most important thing in recruiting, as Charlie Weis demonstrated so clearly at ND, is not the number of 5*s you recruit, it's the number of 5*s you actually produce. Prime example of this can be summed up in two words, Denard Robinson.  

 

NorthwesternFan

May 8th, 2011 at 5:53 PM ^

RJS - 5 star

Ross - 4 star

Bolden - 4 star

Braden - 3 star

Brown - 3 star

Stacy - 3 star

Williams - 3 star

Funchess - 3 star

Ojemudia - 3 star

Ringer - 3 star

So pretty darm close to the OP