Jeff Sagarin's ratings finally unbiased; Michigan 10th in predictive metric
For the uninitiated, Sagarin's rankings are one of the computer rankings used by the BCS. As explained on his site, the BCS uses his rankings that ignore final score (called ELO Chess), but he also publishes rankings that only take scoring margin into account (called Pure Points). Sagarin writes that the Pure Points metric is the single best predictor of future games.
This is the first week in which preaseason predictions don't bias the rankings and Michigan is ranked 10th in pure points. Last week they were ranked 9th in the same metric.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
October 16th, 2011 at 3:51 PM ^
I'll most definitely take it though. It'll be interesting to see Sparty fans whine and cry about us still being ahead of them.
October 16th, 2011 at 4:14 PM ^
Something tells me they'll just be satisfied with beating us 4 straight years...
October 16th, 2011 at 4:16 PM ^
They'll cry about this, guaranteed.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:58 PM ^
October 16th, 2011 at 5:36 PM ^
I don't think most MSU's fans will care about Sagarin's equation. I'd rather be 7-0 or 6-1 with Denard and a healthy neck than be ranked 10th in some meaningless computer predictor.
October 16th, 2011 at 4:08 PM ^
I would be curious as to which have been most accurate historically. While I like it, #10 sounds pretty high for us.
October 16th, 2011 at 4:13 PM ^
Of the BCS models I think Sagarin is the only one to publicly post rankings that account for margin of victory. It would be interesting to see how it compares to FEI and other advanced matrices.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^
Margin of victory is the most overrated and meaningless category of all.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:48 PM ^
If you do any research on this you will quickly find that you are wrong.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:48 PM ^
Except it's not and Sagarin says that these are more accurate than the ones that don't take it into account. I agree with the decision to not have margin of vistory in the BCS rankings because that encourages running up the score, but for purely analytical purposes there IS a difference between a 17 point win and a 1 point win.
October 16th, 2011 at 4:21 PM ^
Per Sagarin, we would be favored in all our remaining games as follows: Purdue 24, Iowa 12.5, Illinois 8.5, Nebraska 9 and Ohio 11.
October 16th, 2011 at 4:57 PM ^
Are those points favored by? Or one of his metrics?
October 16th, 2011 at 7:09 PM ^
There is some rounding, I did it in my head. His instructions say you take the difference between the predictor points and then add 3 for home field.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:25 PM ^
we should not be favored in any of them except Purdue.
We are still undersized, get pushed around, and don't push around enough. I have no doubts we'll win a couple of those games vs Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, OSU. But yesterday brought up all kinds of red flags.
October 16th, 2011 at 5:51 PM ^
I think you're overreacting to a loss to the best defense we'll probably play all year occuring with a 40 MPH wind. I'm not saying we'll beat all those teams, but there is nothing that Iowa or Illinois have done that shows they are better than this Michigan team.
October 16th, 2011 at 6:28 PM ^
Wouldn't this just make all of our weekends to have Michigan rated ahead of MSU in the BCS standings? MSU fans would be so pissed
October 16th, 2011 at 6:50 PM ^
MSU fans put all of their eggs in our basket, if you will, and this year, they won, so of course, that should be sufficient to earn them a berth in a decent bowl and national recognition, right?
One of the things that makes Michigan a truly great university is that we know there is just more to it than this.
October 16th, 2011 at 6:57 PM ^
MSU fans are gonna be in for a big suprise tonight
October 16th, 2011 at 7:12 PM ^
something coming?
October 16th, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
Are you just talking about the BCS rankings? Or are we getting some great recruit or something?
October 16th, 2011 at 11:10 PM ^
What is gonna happen tonight? What should happen is all of their recruits should de commit, and tell the coach they want to learn to play football at a higher level ... they are not really into boxing.
October 16th, 2011 at 11:37 PM ^
Nothing there were just a lot of reports that Michigan was going to be ranked ahead of MSU in the BCS standings which would have pissed them off so much. But unfortunately, that didn't happen. But luckily, Wisconsin will hopefully kill them next week while we move up by default and pass them in the rankings. You might see us like at 17 next week and MSU at 24th. Anything to piss Sparty off