[ESPN] 24 most important players in the CFP Race
ESPN Insider story on the 25 most important players in the CFP race.
Michigan-related content:
14. [Insert defensive end here], Michigan
Despite the departure of offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, Michigan could be poised to improve offensively thanks to overall experience and upside. But if you're trying to talk yourself into Michigan having a shot at another Big Ten title or CFP appearance, it's hard to overlook the departures of star ends Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. They combined for 28.5 TFLs and 25 sacks and offered Michigan a chance at constant pressure without excessive blitzing.
Five returning ends combined for just 5.5 TFLs and four sacks. Mike Morris, Taylor Upshaw, Braiden McGregor & Co. have a ridiculously high bar to clear if the Wolverines want to avoid regression. It doesn't matter who takes a star turn as long as someone does.
4. Cade McNamara (or J.J. McCarthy), Michigan
Last year, McNamara led Michigan to its first CFP bid and first outright conference title since 2003; he finished ahead of stars like Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder and NC State's Devin Leary in Total QBR, too. And yet, if you're talking about what he might be capable of in 2022, you have to include an "... as long as he's still the starter" asterisk. Such is life when your backup (McCarthy) saw just enough snaps to confirm his blue-chip potential.
Whoever starts will have an excellent line in front of him and a high-upside skill corps (RB Blake Corum, WR Ronnie Bell, TE Erick All) surrounding him. He'll also likely have to engineer enough improvement to offset defensive regression. McNamara is safe and efficient, and McCarthy is explosive. Which will Jim Harbaugh and his coaching staff prefer?
Other Big Ten players:
22. Sean Clifford, QB, PSU
21. Casey Thompson, QB, Nebraska
15. Marvin Harrison Jr (or Julian Fleming or Emeka Egbuka or some other freshman blue-chipper)
13-12. DE Zach Harrison and DT Taron Vincent
Interesting that they have PSU and Nebraska players as factors in the CFP race, but not a single player from msu. Just sayin'
August 11th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Ha, oops, 25 players. Fat-fingered that in the title.
August 11th, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^
PSU/Nebraska are listed as "spoiler QBs" so they might have one really good game that fucks up us or OSU.
August 11th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
You mean I was supposed to pay attention to the section headers?
August 11th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
No msu players because info on them is scarce as they're still tumbling out of the portal.
August 11th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
FYI - I think it's critical to understand how Connelly frames this list and who is on it. It isn't about the obvious picks (I was wondering why CJ Stroud was not mentioned until I read the article) - it's about the unknowns or sleepers that have a chance to make a big impact on the season for these contenders. See quote below from the article.
Heading into each college football season, there are known stars and unknown stars. We know what to expect from the sport's proven studs -- in 2022, that includes Bryce Young, Will Anderson Jr., C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- but others will emerge. Maybe they will come out of nowhere, or maybe they have simply been waiting their turn, but the unknown stars of 2022 will determine both what we remember about the season and how the national title race plays out.
My annual Most Important Players list is about those unknowns.
August 11th, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
Helpful and makes sense.
August 11th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
I've said this before - but I think Penn St was an unlucky Sparty last year. Other than their mind numbing Illinois loss (which was also in OT, and not that different from our mind numbing Rutgers win), Penn State's season was like Nebraska's except Penn State was better. 3 of their losses were to top 10 teams, 2 of those by one score or less, and the third was competitive in Columbus.
They were 1-4 in 1-score games (the 1 win by 8 against Auburn), MSU was 4-0, we were 3-1, Nebraska was 0-8. If everyone finished about .500 in close games, M is probably not in the playoff and 10-2 before a winnable bowl game (but likely played without Hutch and Ojabo), MSU and Penn St are 9-4, Nebraska is 7-5
'22 isn't '21, but there's an alternate universe where Penn State finished 2nd in the East, and M looks at '21 like it's '16 again. They could make some noise this year.
August 11th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
I agree but PSU has also had a fair bit of 1-score luck as well. In 2019 they were 4-1 in 1-score games, and last year they were actually 2-4 (they beat Wiscy and Auburn) in 1-score games as well. I think they're better than 7-6 but probably not that much better as they still can't seem to field a competent offensive line and their QBs keep getting hurt. That could change this year but Franklin has some flaws in his game that I don't see being fixed and that puts a ceiling on PSU. MSU had luck on their side last year and my guess is they wind up being more of a 7-8 win team this year (plus a bowl game) versus the 11-2 run they had last year.
And Nebraska was 0-8 in 1-score games but they have also been really bad in close games since Frost arrived - 4-21 in 1-score games. That's not just a couple of bad bounces or bad luck; that's a systemic issue with you as a coach that you either need to dramatically fix or just accept is baked into your DNA. And that's 25 1-score games over 5 years out of 44 total games played, meaning this is sort of Nebraska's MO and not some aberration. They play a lot of close games because they are talented enough to hang with good teams but aren't good enough to beat most of them.
August 11th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
Agreed. I think this is generally speaking a top end talent issue. Nebraska has fewer Top end players than Penn State and in close games they need the lucky bounce to get the win/don't have the horses to take over a game.
For whatever reason (poor development, bad scouting/missing on recruits, coaching turnover...), PSU seems to be slowly moving in the wrong direction on the Top end talent part of this equation. That they wanted Clifford back instead of inserting their next high end QB, or that they kind of fell apart when Mustipher went down last year etc. I think bears this out some. I personally, don't see them being much better than 8-4 this year (see below).
I won't pretend to be deeply knowledgeable about their program and what's coming up for them, but if I were a fan of theirs I'd be more concerned about the direction of the program than excited.
@Purdue- 50/50
Ohio- W
@Auburn- 50/50
CMU- W
NW- W
@UM- L
Minn- 50/50
OSU- L
@IU- W
Maryland- W
@Rutgers- W
MSU- 50/50
August 11th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
You remember when it looked like '5-STAR!!!' Zach Harrison from Ohio was heading to UM and then well..didn't and UM had to settle for a much lesser known entity by the name of 'OH-JAH-BO'?
Imagine what happens if MR 5-Stars was signed (maybe by todays standard using some phat NIL $$) and Ojabo went elsewhere or ended up behind Mr. '5 Stars w NIL money who expects to start because of his NIL sponsors told him he would',
August 11th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
I was always high on Ojabo - I hate that it was Greg Mattison that identified and recruited him.
And I get the premise of your "scenario" but doesn't this happen every year in the NFL where a UFA outperforms a former 1st / 2nd round pick or a highly priced free agent. Is what it is - most coaches will play the better player not the person expected to start.
August 11th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
I think outside of EL the rest of the country for the most part realizes that MSU was incredibly lucky team last year and were carried by a Heisman caliber transfer which isn't exactly repeatable. Their o-line was still very meh and their pass defense was god awful. I don't see those things improving greatly for them. Not that they will be a bad team, but I see them reverting back to the mean and going 8-4 or so.
August 11th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Seems logical. I might suggest that a potential potential alternative to a DE emerging as an elite player would be if a guy like Mazi turns into an unblockable monster in the middle. Yes, seeing that he checked in as the top athletic “freak” brought this to mind.
August 11th, 2022 at 8:43 PM ^
Rumblings out of camp are sounding very much like Mazi has become the unblockable freak destroyer we have been looking for ever since Mo Hurst left for the NFL.