Dr. Saturday Article on Freshman QBs
Good article up by Dr. Saturday analyzing how freshman quarterbacks do and how that relates to Michigan in 09. I was actually surprised Pryor's stats are that good.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Good-luck-w…
Spoiler: Comes to the conclusion that starting a freshman does not bode well for Michigan.
Discuss.
February 19th, 2009 at 4:45 PM ^
I thought seven wins was unacceptable for MEEEEEEEECHIGAN?
February 19th, 2009 at 4:58 PM ^
GCS, you're not paying attention. In the other thread "How Much Time Does RR Get..." there was a bit of angst when I posted that 6-6 was unacceptable. Several thought 6-6 was just fine.
So I guess 7 wins would be orgasmic??
February 19th, 2009 at 5:22 PM ^
Dammit, I'm combining people into one big pile of idiocy and losing track of who said what. This can't be good...
February 19th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^
Gailey let Tech to 7 wins.
See: The Gailey Equilibrium http://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2006/05/12/friday-fact-checking…
February 19th, 2009 at 4:56 PM ^
You can't debate a conclusion reached by examining over 20 QB's with "Josh Freeman". No general rule is 100% true. COULD Tate be successful? Obviously - but trying to spin this article as a positive, when every single conclusion it reaches is negative, is idiotic.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:20 PM ^
I was only referencing your post that the "ONLY (emphasis added) freshman that posted good records did do with PHENOMENAL (emphasis added) talent around them."
The inference (IMO) was that there were no QBs in the list that had winning records without phenomenal talent around them. I listed 2.
BTW, there were only 15 QBs listed not 20.
And, of the 15, 8 had winning records. Of those that had losing records, several were on traditionally gawd-awful teams (Baylor, Duke, Arizona).
If we were talking about 9 or more wins next year, I would agree that the data is highly negative. But, we are only talking 6-7 wins. On that basis, the data does not signify the harbinger of death.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:28 PM ^
We're looking at two different things. You're looking at whether a freshman QB can win 6 games. The answer is "yes". I was looking at "are freshman QB's actually good". The answer, largely, is no.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:20 PM ^
I don't think anyone is arguing that a true freshman is an undeniable positive. It definitely makes a winning season more difficult (in general). But it's also not a "harbinger of death," as Amazin-Blue has pointed out. I think you're both right.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:50 PM ^
If Forcier is anything like Reggie Ball, we are unquestionably catastrophically screwed. The guy was the worst four year starting QB in NCAA history. He couldn't even manage a 50% completion rate throwing to friggin Megatron Johnson.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:09 PM ^
I think it's pretty unlikely that Forcier would be like Reggie Ball. Forcier is considerably more hyped than Reggie Ball, and had offers from the likes of Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, and so forth. Reggie Ball had offers from Georgia Tech and Duke. That's it.
Obviously that's just in reference to the recruiting aspect of it, but I'd at least put some stock in it.
February 19th, 2009 at 4:42 PM ^
0-4 vs ohio st
1-3 bowl record
one 5 loss season with 2 overtime wins and a last second win could have been an 8 loss season.
one 4 loss season
a loss to app. st. first top 25 loss to non div. 1 school
quit with the comparisons to henne.mediocrity is not to be desired.
February 19th, 2009 at 4:49 PM ^
"one 5 loss season with 2 overtime wins and a last second win could have been an 8 loss season."
quit with that comparasion. we COULD have beaten notre dame if we didnt fumble 21 pts away. we COULD have beaten toledo if not for the interecpetion.
that argument that we COULD have lost 8 games before is bull
February 19th, 2009 at 4:50 PM ^
Henne didn't play special teams, O-line, WR and defense all at the same time.
But he was a pretty great QB...
And he'll probably be good in the NFL when Pennington's arm falls off.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:18 PM ^
You are using Chad Henne as an example of mediocrity? Bold Noah, bold.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:26 PM ^
"You are using Chad Henne as an example of mediocrity? Bold Noah, bold."
not as bold as the misconception that a qb who had 14 losses in 4 years should be considered as "great" and yearned for.
this is michigan not michigan st..
February 19th, 2009 at 5:38 PM ^
First, you have not earned the right to call me "wolvy." Not sure who has.
Second, QB's are not measured merely by wins and losses. If they are, find me a QB who started for 4 years and only had 14 losses, that isn't that bad.
Third, show me the last 4 year period where MSU only had 14 losses before you make that comparison.
If Chad freaking Henne is mediocre in your book, then has Michigan had a good QB ever? I'm not saying Henne is the best, but there's aren't many who have blown him out of the water either.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:42 PM ^
You're dealing with someone that clearly thinks that Michigan possesses some sort of tradition-bound right to excellence, in which anything short of a championship is unacceptable (nevermind we've won one in 50 years). IE, he's not rational. Don't try.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:43 PM ^
Good call, I digress.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:39 AM ^
Chitown,
I would like to suggest that you are slightly off-base in your Michigan football philosophy. I don't think Michigan has a tradition-bound RIGHT to excellence, but I do think that it has a much higher standard than nearly every other program in the country. I don't think there are many programs whose fans and alumni demand so much from their football team. In that sense, there is at least an expectation based on tradition.
I understand that you might even agree with me, but I'm not convinced based on the tone you have while posting. It seems you think that there is literally no difference between Michigan and any other football program, and that's where I disagree. By definition, we are THE most successful football program in history. We lead the NCAA in both total wins and, more importantly, win percentage; that's something that's hard to do! Michigan IS different than other programs and I think you should give some consideration in this respect.
I think Rich Rodriguez was a GREAT hire because he insists that Michigan must deserve to win, rather than expect it.
By the way, if there are any current students who read this blog, I would STRONGLY recommend that you take John Bacon's History of College Athletics class before you depart. It's a great class and is a tremendous learning experience with respect to Michigan athletics.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:14 AM ^
but I do think that it has a much higher standard than nearly every other program in the country.
Then we can't help but look at Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Ohio State and conclude that were are 100%, pure, collosal failures.
I'm aware of our history with Fielding Yost, Bennie Oosterbaan, Bo, and the like, but the simple fact is that it's wrong-headed (IMO) to use Fielding Yost's results in the days of the leather helmet as an argument as to why we, today, are superior to USC, or any of the above programs. History and tradition counts - don't get me wrong, but that doesn't mean that USC, in 2009, has a lower standard of success than Michigan.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:54 AM ^
NO YOURE WRONG. IT MATTERS MOST OF ALL! WHO CARES THAT THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE WAS STILL IN EXISTENCE WHEN THIS HAPPENED? EHY DO ALL THE OTHER COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS LAUGH AT US AND OUT 900 WINS BEFORE BLACK PEOPLE COULD VOTE?
February 20th, 2009 at 4:50 PM ^
It's like I said; I don't think you and I disagree all that much. Perhaps this is nothing more than a "heated agreement." I really don't think USC fans take as much pride in their football program as we do - the same could be said for Miami, too.
All I'm saying is that Michigan fans have enjoyed consistent success since the Bo era began. Before that we were no slouch, too. I think that this consistency has placed upon the program a higher expectation, if for no other reason than there are a lot of Michigan fans who haven't been alive long enough to see Michigan slumping like we have been lately. For this reason, the expectation is high and fans demands greatness.
With that said, I'm a very patient person and believe RichRod will get us to where we all expect the program to be.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:46 PM ^
Well, playing almost an entire year with a "broken" arm may have resulted in some of those losses.
And, I do believe you are counting losses for games in which Henne never actually played (since M only lost a total of 14 games in all 4 years).
February 19th, 2009 at 6:15 PM ^
By your logic, Zoltan Mesko is not a good punter because we went 3-9 last year.
Obviously the QB touches the ball more than any other player, but it's still pretty ridiculous to pin every loss a player had throughout his career on that one player. I'm sure you'd blame Threet for "losing" the Notre Dame game this past season, too, without actually watching any game tape or looking at any of the stats.
Henne may not have been the greatest QB in the world, but he was pretty damn good, and he certainly doesn't deserve most of the flak he gets from fairweather UM fans. For one thing, Henne put together some of the finest two-minute drills I'd ever seen any college football QB put together. There are few QBs I would rather have than Henne when my team is down by two touchdowns in the middle of the 4th quarter.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
Are you calling Henne mediocre? That would be pretty fucking dumb, man.
February 19th, 2009 at 5:45 PM ^
The name of Henne is sacred here. Reading MGoBlog brainwashed me into forgetting that I thought Henne was overrated. Thanks for reminding me.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:39 PM ^
Hahaha you know how the saying goes: hope springs eternal. After the OSU loss, for about 2 months, everyone was down and relegated to the fact that it will take awhile for Michigan to come back. Now after Signing day and the start of spring practice looming, some people's blind optimism is coming back and leading them to sprout off stuff like "we'll be fine with a true freshman" and "we'll beat MSU and Notre Dame easily" and "7-8 wins is what I expect."
February 19th, 2009 at 6:44 PM ^
whole.
Todd Boeckman is a returning starting QB. He sets the bar at a certain level (assume decent).
Pryor either beats him out (as what eventually happens) and gets accolades and sets a statistical standard for true freshman QBs.
Or, in an alternate reality, he isn't that good (like most other freshmen QBs), doesn't play, and HAS NO STATISTICS AT ALL except for being one of the 99% of true freshmen QBs that never see the field.
Our situation is quite different. Forcier/Robinson are going to play, qualified or not.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:12 PM ^
we should be terrified if only for the dearth of available precedent.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:09 AM ^
UM '08?
February 20th, 2009 at 3:01 AM ^
"You're dealing with someone that clearly thinks that Michigan possesses some sort of tradition-bound right to excellence, in which anything short of a championship is unacceptable (nevermind we've won one in 50 years). IE, he's not rational. Don't try."
this coming from someone who combines sports with political ideology(marxism)and is the king of nonsensical comments in that regard.
my rationality may be skewed,as are most sports fans,but my love and allegiance for all things maize and blue caused me to voice my opinion on this acceptance of 7-5,9-4,9-3 and 10-2. this does not cut it. when I first saw Henne throw a laser to the sideline and then cringed when he showed his first Grbacian tendency,a lock on to a covered receiver, I knew that the national title would evade the "faithful" for another 4 years.hopefully forcier and, or robinson will be up to the task.
"either ur with us or against us"...sound familiar?why come on this blog or have ur own blog about u of michigan sports if ur not a believer? is it for an ego lift or r u making easy money? obviously it's not for the helmets or the fight song or the storied past where u of michigan is known as the true "leaders and best".
as for the one championship in 50 years that is exactly why I pointed out an acceptance of mediocrity in too many of the michigan fans.this is one fan who is excited about forcier and robinson,
,along with rrod and cannot wait till the 2nd championship,national not big 10,arrives. GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 9:29 AM ^
my rationality may be skewed,as are most sports fans,but my love and allegiance for all things maize and blue caused me to voice my opinion on this acceptance of 7-5,9-4,9-3 and 10-2. this does not cut it.
Then you have literally been happy about Michigan football once in your lifetime.
why come on this blog or have ur own blog about u of michigan sports if ur not a believer? is it for an ego lift or r u making easy money? obviously it's not for the helmets or the fight song or the storied past where u of michigan is known as the true "leaders and best".
1. I didn't know having a blog meant I couldn't participated on others.
2. I don't see how posting here boosts my ego - it is what it is.
3. The WLA does not make a cent - as a matter of fact it costs us a small fraction of money. We have no advertising. I make the same amount of money if we get 10,000 hits a day or 10 hits - $0.00.
4. Is this blog for "true believers"? I don't even know what that means. I'll tell you what I believe:
As an alumni who loved their time at Michigan, I think it's a wonderful school, and I literally can't imagine myself having gone somewhere else. I wore Maize and Blue uniforms in two sports and represented the school for four years in both. When I came to Michigan, from out-of-state, not knowing a soul, I was immediately miserable - the second I walked into the stadium and saw 100,000+ people screaming, the band playing, and all that, I all of a sudden felt at home. I can't possibly exagerrate how much Michigan's football games helped me adjust during a hard transition.
What I DON'T believe is that people that go to Michigan, or play for Michigan are inherently better people than those that play elsewhere. Our football team's police blotter over the years is too extensive to truly believe that. I DON'T believe that going to Michigan makes a person better than going to any other school - anyone that went there can attest to the fact that there are plenty of assholes that attended. So to me, "leaders and best" is an aspirational goal - we HOPE to be the "leaders and best" - not that we ARE.
I also don't believe that watching sports with the "championship or nothing" attitude is FUN. Watching sports, for me, is fun. Issuing ultimatums ("anything less than 12-1 is unacceptable") will inevitably lead to more heartbreak, angst, and disappointment than anything else. We went 3-9? I still enjoyed watching games. I still supported the kids who put on the winged helmet and busted their ass. I don't sit here and bash current or past players as "mediocrities" because they failed to bestow upon me the glory of a championship. Chad Henne was more a Wolverine than you will ever, ever be - and I don't mean that as an insult.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:59 AM ^
I want to sacrifice a virgin to you because you are my god.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:13 AM ^
Craven's waiting...
February 21st, 2009 at 12:19 PM ^
Granted, some interns are also virgins, but interns are usually easier to find.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:43 AM ^
you are FRIEND of program not FAN of program.
February 21st, 2009 at 2:33 AM ^
+10000
February 20th, 2009 at 2:16 PM ^
"Chad Henne was more a Wolverine than you will ever, ever be - and I don't mean that as an insult".
...and Lenin was more a marxist than you will ever, ever, ever be - and I don't mean that as an insult.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:22 PM ^
Do you realize the WLA is not really a communist organization?
February 20th, 2009 at 2:24 PM ^
can he make like PRR and leave? Actually, can we bring PRR back in place of this guy? What do you think Brodie? I mean, seriously, it looks like he ACTUALLY thinks WLA is communist
February 20th, 2009 at 3:48 PM ^
...how the group mentality works. this from MichFan: "can we vote this guy off the island"
"can he make like PRR and leave? Actually, can we bring PRR back in place of this guy? What do you think Brodie? I mean, seriously, it looks like he ACTUALLY thinks WLA is communist"
Michigan Wolverines: 872 wins, .740 winning percentage, 42 Big Ten Titles, 11 National Titles, 3 Heisman winners, and 76 All-Americans
the second paragraph shows a proclivity for lynchings and suppression or if in this case MFan is a young girl it is totally understandable... you know that "mean girl's and the mean things they do".
the 3rd paragraph, makes chitown's point about the past 50 years... on bizarro world.
February 20th, 2009 at 6:08 PM ^
i don't even have a 3rd paragraph. In fact, there's only 1 paragraph there...
February 20th, 2009 at 3:31 PM ^
communism is one of the many forms of a flawed,as is capitalism,concept to control the people and their opinions.sound familiar? democratic capitalism on the other hand is a concept designed with the 'barnumian' logic in which the masses being of low intelligence will fall in line as long as the simple pleasures r provided.
the moral of the story,this thread, is were screwed if we believe were screwed...the mind...the mind...hence,the fact michigan does not succeed is due to a mental approach each player has to competing.henne did not believe in himself, brady did.grbac did not believe in himself, harbaugh did. threet did not believe in himself,forcier and robinson do.
it is up to the qb to lead the masses on to victory over the oppressors...do you wla followers feel better??
February 20th, 2009 at 3:35 PM ^
I take back what I said about you Noah. You sound like a pretty smart guy. You might make it to the full size bus after all.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:57 PM ^
"I take back what I said about you Noah. You sound like a pretty smart guy. You might make it to the full size bus after all".
u call me noah, I call u wolvy. u call me noahtahl I'll call u WolvinLa.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:00 PM ^
the a
is
c a p i t a l i z e d
k thanks.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:14 PM ^
got it.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:42 PM ^
virtually boils down to self-belief (and that you somehow know which QBs, including Forcier and Robinson had this self-belief), or is my sarcasm sensor totally fried?
February 20th, 2009 at 4:34 PM ^
Listen to forcier, his belief is bordering on insane.enough belief from an 18 year old to send a 3rd year Qb packing to North Dakota.as for robinson he had a scholarship in hand to Florida as a cornerback but his belief in himself as a Qb sent him to Michigan.
February 20th, 2009 at 4:41 PM ^
Hart was a cocky SOB (and I loved him for it) who "believed in himself" and you know what? He never played well against tUoOS. I can't see faulting Henne, but Hart was always held in check against OSU.
Having confidence is nice, but really, it's just part of the equation. Put down the Frankl book and step away from the self-help aisle.
BTW, you're just assuming it was all Forcier's doing that sent Threet packing. It's just conjecture. A lot of what the coaches were saying during the season would suggest that they made it pretty clear they didn't care for Threet. That probably had a lot to do with it.