Bracketology update: what gives
Yesterday wasn't a great day for us. The CUSA and Pac-10 are a mess, Colorado in all likelihood punched a ticket, Sparty and PSU won.
We aren't in yet. A loss today and a few more results like yesterday and we could be in real bad shape.
Moral of the story: BEAT THE FRIGGIN' ILLINI!!!
Colorado beating KSU hurt us more than MSU winning. But either way Beat Illini
the bye could end up hurting us....its stupid
ps i hate MSU
March 11th, 2011 at 10:11 AM ^
I agree. Four 9-9 teams from 4th to 7th seed, with the 6th and 7th seeds getting an easy win to get to "10-9" in conference, meaning worst case they are 10-10 against a tough Big 10.
Loser of today's game is 9-10 in Big 10, essentially making them the 7th best team in the conference.
Statistically, UM's 4-2 record against the other 9-9 teams is not going to make up for the fact that a loss today makes them 9-10 in the Big 10 and the 7th best team. I would assume the #7 team is destined for the NIT
Sparty beat Iowa and is now a lock (IMO); Penn St has work to do. If we lose to Illini and Penn State beats Wisco we are 100% out.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:47 AM ^
exactly.
I mentioned this scenario on another board earlier in the week and not too many agreed with me. Really interesting that the 4 seed/bye could actually hurt us in the end.
March 11th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^
Perhaps, but there is no evidence that MSU or PSU improved its standing. Remember, the committee looks at the entire season, not just the conference one - and conference tourney results aren't normally counted in the standings.
We can't lose today. If we lose, to say we'd be on the bubble is an understatement. Success is our only motherf"ckin option, failures not.
Those lyrics look vaguely familiar.
Aren't they from that Weird Al Song about TV?
Coming off of the MSU game, we were hot and our stock was on the rise. At this time of year, when you have a long layoff, you are temporarily out of the conversation, and with so many teams out there to discuss, being out of the converasation can unfairly amount to being passed by teams that are "in" the conversation.
If we beat the Illini, none of this matters, and we would almost 100% be in. If we lose, however, things get very dicey.
Note to Michigan: Please beat the Illini, ok? I need something good in my sports rooting life these days.
I understand that the inactivity puts us out of the conversation temporarily with the media (Lunardi) and stalls our momentum there, but does that really change how the committee will evaluate our resume? I really hope they're able to look outside of media trends and just evaluate the wins and losses.
That being said... I would sleep sooo much better with a win today.
Go Blue!
March 11th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
Just win baby... wow that sounds familiar.
Just Win, Baby: Registered trademark of the Oakland Raiders. Courtesy of this freak.
I don't understand how that freak is still alive. Then again, he may become the oldest person to ever live.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^
He seems to have just become a caricature of himself. He seems to still be a tough SOB; but a weird dude.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^
He's clearly a zombie. Am I the only one who sees this?
ironically, i think if UM had a winnable first round game instead of a bye that it would mean more to the bracketologist. now, instead of another win and then a tough game against an evenly matched opponent, we just have a tough game.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^
That isn't necessarily true. Michigan State won and moved down a couple of spots on his bubble. A token win against Iowa or Indiana would have meant nothing unless we lost that game.
Some of the jockeying can be attributed to just S-Curve procedures as well. Your performance, or non-performance, may not mean you move down - but depending on other conference teams in your region or the host site - or opponenet, you may be moved up or down a line on the S-Curve to alleviate those matters.
Nova should find themselves playing in a play-in game. They've been terrible down the stretch - losses to Rutgers and USF included.
If M wins today, I'd think should be a solid 10-seed.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^
so I don't think it's as bad as ESPN thinks ... Michigan is still in front of MSU and way ahead of Penn State, but it wouldn't hurt to have Purdue and Wisconsin win just in case.
A win locks a bid for certain, and a loss might not be bad depending on today's games. Once you get to the quarters of most tournaments, bubble teams start dropping off. That said, there's no need to find out how close to the bubble you can get and still be in. Drop the Illini so we can start talking about a possible 10 seed.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:06 AM ^
Not to be too greedy, but I'd like to be in and be an 11 seed. Unless, as a 10 seed the 2 seed is SDSU.
Let's go crazy and assume a win in round 1, I'd rather play the 3 seed in round two than the 2 seed. The 1's and 2's are really good this year and I think there's a noticeable dropoff to the 3's. Except for SDSU. I kind of want to play them no matter what the seeds are!
March 11th, 2011 at 10:09 AM ^
SImple as that.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
March 11th, 2011 at 10:15 AM ^
Because we haven't done anything to improve our resume. Other teams have.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^
That up an down arrow moves if you change a seed since your last update. His last bracket we were the last 11 seed, and this bracket we are the first 12 seed since he has Colorado jumping us in line. The arrow isn't necessarily a trend.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:38 AM ^
because they were the last 11 seed and they're now the first 12 seed. That's it.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:22 AM ^
If a team jumped ahead of us, we had to trend down. Still.....Just Win....
March 11th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
Its a fluid situation. A win or two in the b10 and we will be moved right back
March 11th, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^
Lunardi has a potential 2nd round game of OSU - Illinois. Not gonna happen.
Take care of business today UM and make the next 2 days more comfortable.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:44 AM ^
Believe it or not, we should be rooting for PSU today. According to Bubble Watch, they would need two more wins to get back into tourney conversation. If they beat Wisconsin, their RPI will be sub-50 (it is currently exactly 50). That is two more top-50 RPI wins on our resume. Even if the win against Wisconsin moved them neck and neck with us, we have a season sweep against them. Either way win today, but I'm rooting for PSU.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:46 AM ^
they'll have wins over Illinois, MSU, Minnesota twice and Wisconsin twice.
I know their non-conference schedule is terrible, and I know they had some awful non-conference losses, but I don't want a team with those wins anywhere near the bubble.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:03 AM ^
precarious place to be, especially for a program with a poor national perception and without any signature victories on the year. Does Michigan deserve to be in over some of the other teams predicted to make it? There's certainly an argument for this, but not an overwhelming one.
The bottom line is that Michigan must win today. They are the higher seed. Illinois is beatable. Prove that they deserve to be in. Otherwise, we are just arguing about why our barely deserving team is better than some other barely deserving team.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:59 AM ^
And a convincing win over the Illini to erase all doubt. I think Jordan Morgan is the x-factor in this game, given the size of the Illini. If he is able to stay out of foul trouble and contribute 10+ points, I think we'll be hard to beat.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:23 AM ^
He still has us in the "bye" group, the only change was Colorado leaping them. Since the "last four in" play for 12 seeds (or potentially 11 seed if they have to do that to make the brackets work) we could be a 12 and still avoid those play-in games. I really don't care if our guys get an 11 or 12 -- avoiding the play-in is what I care about, and a win today should pretty much wrap that up. Lose, and we'll be hoping for one of those play-in games more than likely.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:44 AM ^
concerned with avoiding a play in. I like our chances against any other 11 or 12 seed out there and it would give our team a chance to have a game in hand prior to the matchup with the 5 or 6 seed.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
I've said this all along - Lunardi's bubble talk is frankly not that scientific, and tends to be based way more on moment-to-moment wins/losses/"bad wins"/"good losses" than the others seem to be. UM is going to be squarely on the bubble until they beat Illinois, and who knows what happens even if they do. Getting worked up over "Joey Brackets"' picks (I hate you Linda Cohn) today doesn't seem worth the effort.
March 11th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^
I think MSU's victory doesn't hurt us as much as Colorado beating Texas most likely sealed them into the tourney and most likely above us.
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March 11th, 2011 at 12:23 PM ^
I think the NCAA "Dance Card" is the best out there (they got 33/34 last year and 32/34 in 09)...here it is as of today. Win today we are in, lose we are out...pretty simple.
46. USC
47. FSU
48. MSU
49. UM
50. CSU
BUBBLE BURSTS HERE
51. VCU
52. Oak
53. Va Tech
54. BC
55. PSU
March 11th, 2011 at 12:51 PM ^
gets all but one or two teams in. Lunardi has done that every year. It's pretty hard not to.