Bad Luck or Bad Defense? 3-pt Hot Streak Against UM

Submitted by Swayze Howell Sheen on

Here are the 3-pt field goal stats of our opposition from the last five games:

Nebraska 09/18 50%
Illinois 09/14 64%
Maryland 10/15 67%
Pennstate 08/19 42%
Iowa 11/19 58%

As you can see, only once in the last five has a team hit fewer than 50% of their 3-pt attempts against Michigan, and even that was a pretty good 42% clip from Penn State.

On the recent WTKA roundtable, it was suggested (by Craig Ross, I believe) that this was just "bad luck". So, what do you all think? Bad luck, or bad defense? If other teams stop having the hot hand against us (regression to the mean and all), will the season suddenly seem a bit more salvageable? 

 

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ricosuave

January 14th, 2017 at 8:43 PM ^

I watched a Saginaw Valley State (note) bball practice and was very impressed with how easy they made the threes in shooting drills. Point? You have to defend it as the shot really is not that tough.

Joined: 09/26/2015

MGoPoints: 321

Ronnie Kaye

January 14th, 2017 at 8:52 PM ^

Both, but more bad defense. Don't remember many of these 3's being well defended. Craig Ross is a good and funny guy but also a total honk.

 

Joined: 05/09/2015

MGoPoints: 104

Zenogias

January 14th, 2017 at 9:30 PM ^

There's no denying our three point defense is awful. Is it as awful as these numbers would indicate? No. I mean: maybe, but we don't have a single example in recorded history of a team whose three point defense was so bad that teams should *expect* to shoot > 50%. Seriously. So if it's this bad, it's an absolutely historic event. But why waste our time bitching about three point defense when two point defense is the real problem. We practically usher opposing guards to the hoop and hand them the ball back when they miss. This is the real crisis.

Joined: 06/24/2015

MGoPoints: 2292

Roy G. Biv

January 14th, 2017 at 9:32 PM ^

Yeah there is an obvious element of bad luck involved, but I think it's the team's lack of athleticism that is a big culprit.  Many of the players just don't seem to be explosive enough to close out on a shooter or get up and challenge the shot.

Joined: 09/03/2010

MGoPoints: 6957

champswest

January 14th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^

open three point attempts than other teams give us. At what rate would Robinson convert if all of his threes were wide open looks? But they aren't, because other teams know he is a three point threat so they try hard not to let him get good looks. In some games, he is lucky to get more than 3 or 4 attempts and most of those are contested.

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 25916

LSAClassOf2000

January 14th, 2017 at 11:39 PM ^

At last report, this is more or less true statistically as well - whereas Michigan's own overall percentage hovers around 40% and it in the upper fifth of Division I basketball, we give up about 48% on threes, which is #348, so within earshot of the basement for defending threes. It rolls into the opponent eFG% of 53%, which is #259 in Division I. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130619

SysMark

January 14th, 2017 at 10:40 PM ^

Maybe some of both, but Michigan is definitely playing some soft defense.  I don't buy that we have soft players.  There seems to be some level of uncertainty/hesitation in what they should be doing.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 21688

WorldwideTJRob

January 15th, 2017 at 9:01 AM ^

Walk into any gym and see how many 3's guys can hit during shootaround, when no one is guarding them. Then let a defender put a hand in their face and tell me if it has an effect. For the elite shooters(Klay, Steph, KD, JJ & Korver) maybe not that big of a deal but the average shooter feels a lot less comfortable when guiding a shot over an outstretched hand.



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Joined: 07/05/2010

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docwhoblocked

January 15th, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^

The B1G stat site shows us with higher steals per game and equal blocks and rebounds athough it appears we give up more offenive rebounds than we should (and that meets the eye test as well).  We also are shooting more free throws per game by a considerable margin. Maybe it is the intensity of defense.  Seems like we never are as handsy as our opponents who seem to get way with grabbing and moving picks, over the back, etc. more than we do.  

I have played a lot of basketball, one of the things you do in every game is try to figure out what the refs are going to let you get away with on the floor.  We rarely seem to test those limits but then maybe that is why we are shooting way more free throws than our opponenets this year.  

To the point, I think we have closed out pretty well on a lots of made threes where I thought to myself how the hell did that guy get that shot off let alone have it go in.  Just my feeling having watched us play a lot. So my gut tells me it is luck as much as bad D on the 3s.

Joined: 09/05/2010

MGoPoints: 632

LabattBlue

January 15th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^

1. Last in big fg % D, 2. Last in 3p fg % D ,3. Last in # O Reb/game, 4. Last in # D reb/game..regression to the bottom Defense. Shoot great or lose. And its a tough watch even with the win.

Joined: 03/28/2015

MGoPoints: 721

Grabelnyc

January 15th, 2017 at 10:43 AM ^

Hand in the face does nothing. Probably helps the shooter. Defending the three is about not letting the shooter step into the shot or making him change his release. If you do neither you're at the mercy. Well you can also deny passing lanes, limit touches, prevent offensive rebounds, etc. Jb instead is intent on limiting fouls, thus limiting aggressiveness. Also making his guys nervous about two fouls = bench. Shoot you had Duncan even calling to the ref yesterday to be sure it was Xavier's foul. Smh.

Joined: 03/30/2016

MGoPoints: 177

Michrider41

January 15th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^

It's either an uncontested three or a layup when they close out late and the guy goes by them. Horrific. Watch film on an Izzo team in how to play half court defense, not this years team, 2009.

Joined: 07/26/2016

MGoPoints: 2980