Big Ten Week 1 Gambling Guide: Odds/Picks ATS
Hello MgoDegenerates,
While I'm itching for the season to start, I wanted to get the ball going on week 1 odds/picks ATS. I love betting on week 1 odds, as its the best possible time to take advantage of teams with high preseason rankings that may have flaws we know about because we follow the B1G more closely, as well as the general foils of early season football, which are often times exacerbated by personnel movement (both coaches and players).
With that said, I'll post the week 1 odds (via FanDuel) and a light amount of my insight. Spread picks are italicized, I don't tend to bother with o/u unless I think it's obvious, but those picks are asterisked. Let me know what you think below!
Thursday, 8/31
8pm ET: Nebraska @ Minnesota (-7.5) - o/u 44.5
Confidence: 7/10
Tough for Nebraska to have their first game under Rhule on the road against a solid Minnesota team, who has generally been a good-not-great team under Fleck.
Friday, 9/1
7pm ET: Central Michigan (+14.5) @ Michigan State - o/u 49.5
Confidence: 6/10
CMU was 8-4 in 2021 and 4-8 in 2022 under Jim 'the shark' McElwain, but opened both seasons against Power 5 teams (Mizzou and Oklahoma State) and kept each game within 14 points. While MSU has a solid defensive front, the losses of Thorne and Coleman make me think they'll take a minute to figure things out on offense.
Saturday, 9/2
Noon ET: East Carolina (+36) @ Michigan - o/u 51.5
Confidence: 3/10
With ECU having gone 7-5 in each of the past two seasons, and UM's proclivity to run the ball and eat clock in these settings, I like the Pirates to cover.
Noon ET: Fresno State @ Purdue (-4.5) - o/u 50.5
Confidence: 5/10
Both teams lost their QBs to the NFL draft last season. Most experts are fading Purdue, and while they lost a lot, I think they brought in a really good coach in Ryan Walters and have enough infrastructure returning from a team that is coming off a B1G West title.
Noon ET: Utah State (+25.5) @ Iowa - o/u* 43.5
Confidence: 10/10
To me, this shows a little too much confidence in Iowa's offense. I like the Cade and All transfers, but with the turnover they've had on that side of the ball and the fact that Brian Ferentz is still calling plays, are we sure the Hawkeyes even score 26 points, let alone win by that much? This Utah State team has also gone bowling in consecutive seasons. This feels like a lock to me, by far my most confident pick for week 1.
1:30 ET: Buffalo (+26.5) @ Wisconsin - o/u 54.5
Confidence: 5/10
Luke Fickell was the best hire of the offseason, and this Wisconsin team has talent, but with drastic offensive scheme overhaul and a new QB, I think the Badgers struggle to score as much as they're anticipated to in their first game. Buffalo is coming off a 6-6 season, albeit in the MAC.
1:30 ET: Ohio State @ Indiana (+28.5) - o/u 60.5
Confidence: 4/10
OSU is loaded with talent, but in their first game on the road against a defense-first, in-conference Indiana team, while fazing in a new QB, I like the Hoosiers to cover. I'm not confident in this one though, as the WRs and style of play for the Buckeyes can quell a lot of that concern against weaker opponents.
1:30 ET: Towson @ Maryland - no lines listed
Probably for the best that there's no info here... remember to gamble responsibly!
(Michigan Gambling Helpline: 1-800-270-7117)
7:30 ET: West Virginia (+20.5) @ Penn State - o/u 52.5
Confidence: 6/10
Give me the Mountaineers who are 11-13 the last two years against some tougher than I realized schedules, over the Nittany Lions also fazing in a new QB.
7:30 ET: Toledo @ Illinois (-9.5) - o/u 46.5
Confidence: 3/10
Toledo is very quietly one of the best programs in the MAC. They've been bowl-eligible every season since 2010, and are the reigning MAC champs. Illinois also has to replace an all-time offensive backfield of DeVito and Brown, but I think Bielema's focus on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball (led by a potential 1st round DT), and a Wile E. Coyote defensive coordinator year keep them in the realm of decency. I wouldn't bet this one, but give me the Illini at home to open 2023.
Sunday, 9/3
Noon ET: Northwestern @ Rutgers (-6.5) o/u 40.5
Confidence: 8/10
Rutgers has improved during the Schiano II era, enough that they should be able to beat a Northwestern team coming off perhaps the worst offseason in program history, having just replaced their head coach.
August 24th, 2023 at 5:30 PM ^
Michigan athletes, Please Please Please don't read this post.
August 24th, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
I think you should gamble where you get the best line and ideally an advantage over closing line at the sharpest books, because that’s what successful gamblers do.
I was able to get Illinois -9 and I’m pretty confident they will cover. I don’t know why you’re calling for a Wile E Coyote coordinator year, do you know who they hired? Leonard isn’t some retread “just a guy.” Beilema has built that team to win in the trenches, which is usually where G5 teams are the weakest in terms of talent and shallowest in terms of depth, especially in the portal era with all the up-transfers.
A less snarky side note- I’ll be very interested to see how the over/unders do in week 1 with the rule changes expected to eliminate 8-10 plays per game. It might not matter much in the non conference mismatch season since most P5 teams will coast in the second half or fourth quarter anyways. It may have a much more outsized impact once conference season is in full swing - you’re talking about taking away ~1.5 ish possessions per game. I think there is going to be a lot of public action on overs because they will probably be adjusted down by 5% or so from last year, and many will be thinking “man, that’s low, I’m taking the over.”
August 25th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
Agree with you completely on finding the best lines, and your great point on over unders! Will definitely look to selectively capitalize on that these opening weeks, as I think it will take the gambling public a minute to adjust as well.
If I can provide a bit of snark back on the Illinois comment - remember that Leonhard was hired as a 'defensive analyst', not a DC. I believe that doesn't allow for on-field coaching so that may limit his impact a bit. Nonetheless they have had great defenses in recent years, the strength of their team is typically in the secondary but they just lost Weatherspoon and their safety to the draft. Walters, IIRC, was the DBs coach as well and clearly did well with that.
August 30th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
Illinois also lost the some key pieces on that defense...it might take a week or so to gel.
August 25th, 2023 at 7:52 AM ^
I know Rutgers is really bad but only giving 6.5 at home against what is probably going to be an absolutely horrific N'Western squad seems...odd.
I, too, am surprised to see Utah State getting a whopping 25.5 against Iowa.
I stopped gambling a few years ago, but some of these lines are pretty enticing.
August 25th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
The three B1G conference games in week one are of interest to me. I'll place "friendly" wagers on Michigan games - but nothing material from a money standpoint. Those bets are usually associated with bragging rights and pride.
It seems to me that Rutgers over Northwestern is the easiest pick to make. Unfortunately, it looks like the Wildcats will be a tire fire this year - and, nothing is going to stop that. Northwestern's over / under win total could be 1.5.
Minnesota vs Nebraska - I wish this game was held later in the year. On the road for Ruhle in his first game as the Husker head coach - hmmm. Nebraska had some solid players the last few season - but, they also had Scott Frost (and his mom) who I've missed for months - and, still can't believe the buyout for a "favorite son" who tanked the program and is probably just enjoying his millions on a beach, or near a golf course, somewhere. Nebraska's lost a number of close games over the past two seasons - and, I wouldn't be surprised if Nebraska lost - but also covered.
The Buckeyes at Indiana - this is of interest to see what the new QB for the Scarlet and Gray can do. I doubt the Hoosiers will be able to keep up with a potentially potent Buckeye offense. Can the OL protect whoever the QB is? The receivers WILL get open - but, how effectively can the ball be delivered? Can a run game be established? My guess - the receivers will get a LOT of separation and - a "get off my lawn" guy (like me) - could probably complete passes to that receiving corps against the IU secondary.
And - this Saturday - I'll be cheering for Navy to upset their opponent in Dublin.
August 25th, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
What, no week 0? Jacksonville State wins over UTEP (currently +100 ML), Vanderbilt covers (-17.5), and FIU keeps it closer than +11.5. Book it.
#week0isfordegens
August 27th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
Already ahead after week 0! 2-1
August 25th, 2023 at 11:05 PM ^
I have zero confidence that ECU will cover. It could be a 50-something to single digits type of game.
August 27th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
Michigan always seems content to burn clock once the backups are in, my opinion is if the game is in hand enough that second and third team players are playing it would be good to play with a pace that gets those guys as many reps as possible.
August 26th, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
I apologize for getting all didactic on you, but OSU is not "fazing in" a new quarterback; the Buckeyes are phasing in a new quarterback. Though we should all hope that they are fazed by the result.
August 27th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
If I was betting, taking the under for the Iowa game would be my top choice.
August 27th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
I wouldn’t touch the Nebraska/Minnesota because there are too many unknowns. I like the Central Michigan +14.5 pick.
Our game is another one that I wouldn’t touch. Yes, we are likely to run the ball and milk the clock throughout, but East Carolina is really bad and we have two backs who are a threat to score on every touch. Throw in a couple of turnovers, and it could be 49-0 at halftime.
I definitely agree with your 10/10 confidence Utah State pick. Cade missed the last two weeks of practice and I think he just came back yesterday. Their offense will be improved over last year’s, but there’s no way Cade is in tune with his receivers yet. I think he missed spring practice recovering from his knee injury and he missed most of fall camp. Plus Brian Ferentz is still calling the plays.
Penn State always seems to struggle early in the season when they play a decent team. I think West Virginia is half way decent and I agree they will cover.
College football is crazy and unpredictable and just a reminder to all to only bet what you can afford to lose and don’t pay for anyone’s picks. Those guys are scammers.
Comments