THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Michigan will hopefully have Eli Brooks back in the lineup after he missed last night's loss with a broken nose and generally battered face. As of last night's postgame presser, his status remained unclear:

The question is whether Brooks will be available for Sunday's game at Ohio State.

"I don't know," Howard said when asked about Brooks' status going forward. "I'll find out tomorrow."

No word yet. Michigan could really use Brooks for his defense and the added lineup flexibility. This game has major implications for the Big Ten Tournament; M and OSU are tied for seventh in the league with three games to play. It'd be tough for the loser of this game to pass the other for seeding in the BTT, and if they finish that tourney with similar profiles the same will go for the NCAA Tournament—the Wolverines are one spot in front of the Buckeyes in the latest Bracket Matrix.

Speaking of which: no, Michigan is not at all in danger of falling out of the field. I've played with Torvik's tourneycast and the lowest I can get them to fall is an eight-seed by losing out and dropping the first conference tournament game. There's a solid floor now.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Ohio State is likely to be down a starter. Power forward/glue guy Kyle Young went down with a suspected high ankle sprain against Maryland on Sunday and sat out last night's game against Nebraska. While there's no word on his status for Sunday, at best he'll be playing at less than 100%.

Talented freshman guard DJ Carton remains out while he attends to his mental health.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LAST TIME

bracing for the hip check [Campredon]

Ugh. Last night's loss would've snapped an eight-game win streak for Michigan if not for this game, which the officials allowed to get out of hand in the second half and then decided with a flagrant foul call on Zavier Simpson so ridiculous that the same ref made the exact opposite call the next week after presumably getting chewed out by conference higher-ups.

Our coverage: Preview. Recap:

Fitting such a contest, both teams fought hard. The lead changed hands 19 times. The game was tied for nearly ten full minutes of action. The margin never reached more than four points for the duration of the second half. [Kaleb] Wesson played a tremendous game, leading all scorers with 23 points on 15 shot equivalents, pulling down 12 rebounds, and dishing out three assists against zero turnovers, including a feed to Duane Washington Jr. for a three that put OSU up one point with 54 seconds to play.

Then the officials decided the game. I don't know another honest way to put it.

Game column:

Wesson should have fouled out in about 18 minutes. This is not a close thing at all. He drew an absurd charge call when he slid under DDJ on what should have been an and-one, and shoved Michigan players out of bounds twice for turnovers that Bilas was apoplectic about. Hard to imagine there's any other arena in the league where that game would have happened.

Michigan still had a shot to tie it on their final possession and Juwan Howard drew up a play that got Brooks a wide open look in the corner; it didn't fall. Fun times.

THE THEM

Since these teams last met, Ohio State has won four of six, losing only road games at Wisconsin and Iowa while holding serve at home against Rutgers, Purdue, and Maryland. They also won at Nebraska last night, which mostly matters in that they're facing an equally short turnaround as the Wolverines for this game.

While OSU lost their best pick-and-roll ballhandler in Carton, they've maintained a good offense largely because they're excellent at both post offense and shooting off any sort of kickout. That's driven by Kaleb Wesson, of course, who's traded heft for increased versatility this season. While that's cost him some ability to bully defenders in the post, it's made him a much better, more mobile defender, and he's a legitimately dangerous three-point shooter.

Point guard CJ Walker is a sound, active defender and passer out of the pick-and-roll. He's not a great finisher and his three-point shot hasn't fallen much in Big Ten play. Michigan would do well to stick to shooters and force Walker to seek his own offense while hounded by Zavier Simpson and, hopefully, Brooks.

Off-guard Duane Washington may have an outsized impact on this game compared to normal. He replaced Young in the starting lineup and he's very confident in his play; he shoots on 28.5% of OSU's possessions when he's on the court, the highest figure on the team by a healthy margin. More than half those shots come from beyond the arc, where he shoots 38%; he's not a great finisher and should be run off the arc.

Wings Andre Wesson and Luther Muhammed provide excellent (the former) or decent (the latter) three-point shooting while playing good defense. Like Washington, both take most of their shots from downtown and aren't as effective inside the arc. Off the bench, 6'5" wing Justin Ahrens is a 41% Just A Shooter™; he's attempted 56 three-pointers and five two-pointers this season.

With Young likely out, freshman EJ Liddell will get most or all of the backup minutes behind Kaleb Wesson. While only 6'6", he's a strapping 236 pounds, making him a good rebounder, rim protector, and foul magnet. Ohio State's offense dies when he's on the court, though; he's not good as a roll man and while he tries to stretch the floor he's 4/23 on threes.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Ohio State gets to almost the exact same offensive efficiency as Michigan in a very different way. They haven't finished very well inside the arc but they're second in the Big Ten with a 36% mark on threes. While they're turnover-prone, they cover for it with good offensive rebounding and frequent trips to the line.

Their defense is also nearly identical to Michigan's from an efficiency standpoint. Like the Wolverines, pick-and-roll defense is a strength—the Buckeyes rank in the 99th percentile on Synergy against pick-and-rolls with passes included. They shut down most everything that goes towards the basket; to do so, they allow a high number of three-point attempts that go down at a 36% clip.

THE KEYS

Make shots. Very much unlike Wisconsin's no-threes defense from last night, Chris Holtmann is going to have his defense sink into the paint, try to overwhelm ballhandlers, and make you beat them with outside shots. I expect Simpson will be able to handle the pressure; it'll come down to whether the guys around him can take advantage when he finds the open man on a drive-and-kick. Going 10-for-31 on threes cost M the first game as much as anything the refs did.

Stick to shooters. Kaleb Wesson is a solid post player but he hasn't been a dominant scorer, although he caught Teske during his funk and went 6/8 on twos in the first game. Despite that success, Michigan should've won that game because they opened a 13-shot advantage beyond the arc. A repeat performance playing mostly single coverage in the post with the occasional dig-and-recover would be lovely, particularly if Teske can get a couple more post stops on Wesson.

Keep a reasonable tempo. Perhaps this is recency bias after watching Michigan blow multiple transition opportunities against Wisconsin when one player charged ahead of the pack only to miss a contested layup, but unless the fast break is the obvious choice I'd like to see the Wolverines settle into their offense. OSU has one of the better transition defenses in the country and possessions are going to be at a premium. There's no need to waste them with rushed shots when you have Simpson's ability to break down a halfcourt defense.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Ohio State by 4.

It'll be strength vs. strength with OSU's pick-and-roll defense vs. Michigan's pick-and-roll offense. Ultimately, OSU's more reliable outside shooting may be the difference.