THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#46 Michigan (6-5, 1-1 B10) vs #91 McNeese St (10-2)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M-7 Torvik: M-11
TICKETS	From $2
TELEVISION	BTN+ (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Basketball's disappointing 2023 has one more event to get through, a home bout with Will Wade's new team. And I do mean "new." For running the dirtiest program in college sports Wade was given a ten-game show-cause, which means he was only able to join the Cowboys this month. Their last game without him was December 5th, a 92-23 rout of the Mississippi University for Women, a Division III school that's been co-ed since a Supreme Court case in the 1980s, started their men's basketball team during the COVID season, and joined a conference last year. Other "wins" on McNeese State's pre-Wade schedule this year were an 81-49 beatdown of LeTourneau, a 110-46 defeat of Champion Christion, and 96-55 takedown of Biblical Studies.

When not playing Miss Glisson's 3rd grade Sunday school class McNeese has been feisty. They opened the season with a win at #88 VCU, hung in with #133 Western Carolina and #89 Louisiana Tech and beat #166 UAB handily, and are coming off a 74-72 comeback victory over Louisiana. They're doing it the Will Wade Way: give the ball to a guard who can score in isolation and have everyone else clear out.

The TCU transfer they're doing it with probably won't be able to keep pace with Wade's uncoached defense, but he'll have this game circled—Michigan is the only Kenpom Top-50 team on the schedule, and with Southland season starting with the New Year, their next toughest matchup until the Tournament is #262 Nicholls State.

Michigan's hopes of making the dance aren't great after squandering another opportunity in double-overtime with Florida. Here's another shot at a win that will look better on a Tournament resume than it should. Keep Burnett in front of Shahada Wells and bully the frontcourt, and things should be fine.

[Hit THE JUMP for Roll out the ball Will.]

THE US

Me graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

They do look good on paper at least.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

The Johnny Jones Index is the percent of photos in the first three rows of coach's Google Image Search that show him at his old job. Since Wade's only been allowed to coach McNeese State for two games, we have a full 100%. For the record, when Wade's Bo Ryan Index is 50 percent.

THE THEM

The Wells show. [McNeese State Athletics]

SG Shahada Wells is the main engine of the McNeese State offense, and if you put some high socks on him he'd look like a guard out of the 1980s. Wells spent his freshman year at a JUCO, then played point for UT Arlington and put up incredible numbers: 31-14 assist-turnover ratio, 30% of possessions, 47.7 eFG% despite taking 226 two's, and a 38% mark on 126 triples. He transferred up to high-tempo TCU after that but fell out of the rotation and took a redshirt. He mostly came off the bench last year, fell to 24% on threes, and made his living getting to the rim and generating turnovers with his athleticism and length.

His height isn't great but his shot maximizes his length, and he can get it off quickly. If you overplay him he'll get to the rim and score on a floater.

His assist rate, like so many McNeese stats, has a lot to do with competition. Opponents tend to send help against Wells, and Wells doesn't mind giving it up when it's obvious. What isn't opponent-variant is getting to the rim; he was a 60% shooter from two in the Big XII last year. The floaters and verticality of his approach however tend to generate a lot fewer fouls than a guy who's scoring in the lane would normally generate.

There's a big drop from Wells to the next highest-usage player, burlywing Christian Shumate. He was McNeese State's star the last two years, and is still putting up good numbers, especially as a rebounder. Though listed at 6-6, Shumate plays like a power forward, crashes the glass, and gets a lot of his points from second chances. Shumate's not a shooter, carrying a 26% career 3P% on about 1.3 attempts per game, and is 55% over his career on free throws. His high block rate is based on competition; he doesn't really do that against higher-tier competition. He does stay in front, however, and can switch 1-4. He also gets down the court in a hurry; he's the most likely Cowboy to benefit from one of Wells's frequent steals.

Center Antavion Collum is there to stretch the court, get out of the way, and score on putbacks. He started his career at Ole Miss, where he was listed at 6-7, and you have to wonder how much of the coif they're counting when they say he's 6-9. Until this year, threes weren't part of his game—the fifth-year is 22/66 in 89 games for his career—but he's 12/29 in 8 games vs D-I competition this season, and 4/11 in the three serious ones so he seems to have discovered his range if you leave him open. He doesn't take them if they're contested.

The other guy hanging around outside is SF Jahvon Garcia, a Columbus, OH, native and UMass transfer who would like to be a rim threat but doesn't really have the handles for it. He was playing point as a freshman and sometimes flashed as a potential up-transfer, but his development since then set Garcia on a path to playing for Wade instead. He doesn't pass; if the ball goes to Garcia he's putting up a two unless he's open at the perimeter, where he's 8/17, all unguarded, this season, and 31/95 (33%) career. Defensively he's got some athleticism and can be a pain for guards, but McNeese State doesn't have the size to play him there.

SG DJ Richards comes off the bench as a Just-a-Shooter, but will play more minutes against Michigan than the guy who's technically starting, so I'm swapping them on the chart. The reason is Richards can shoot threes. That is all h can do; he had to take on a larger role at UTSA and his 2PJs are mostly wasted possessions. But he's 36% career from the arc versus D-I competition and he fights for rebounds. His stuff's been going in this year too.

The bench:

• Starting PG Omar Cooper is probably not going to factor much against Michigan. He's a drive-and-dish type who's averaging 2 PPG versus competition inside the Kenpom Top-200, and 9 PPG, virtually all at the rim, against the baby seals. Cooper's path to the court is if they need him to pester Dug so Wells doesn't use himself up on defense.
• Wing Cameron Jones played two years each at South Carolina State and Jacksonville State. Since they're short on non-short people he will get on the court, but he's the type of winger who looks to drive everything and clangs his open triples.
• Backup big CJ Felder started his career at Boston College in the COVID season, and was listed at 6-7 both there and at Florida, where he played the last two years. Like Shumate, Felder is more of a burlywing than a big. Unlike Shumate, Felder can't produce anything on offense except putbacks.
• If they play a 9th guy at all it's holdover Roberts Berze, an Ahrens-level Just-a-Shooter who's 37/104 lifetime from three and 8/17 on all other shots.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

All of their stats are whacky because there are so many games where they can just take it to the rack. They don't turn it over much because they don't pass it beyond Wells tossing it to an open guy when he picks up extra attention or sets a butt screen at the top of the key. The horrible schedule obscures the real team, which can get killed on the defensive glass by anyone with a proper big. It's the Wells show.

THE KEYS

Shut down Wells with Burnett. Ballgame.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.