THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Michigan is all but locked into the 8/9 game in the Big Ten Tournament, most likely as the eight-seed, and they'd face either Rutgers or Purdue in that matchup. There's a slim chance of moving up to the seven-seed, in which case Indiana comes into play as a potential opponent. Here are all the possibilities as of today:

Update: After Thursday's games, there are now 128 tiebreaker scenarios still in play for the Big Ten men's basketball tournament. pic.twitter.com/ND1dhTGgLr

— Kevin Pauga (@KevinPauga) March 6, 2020

Maryland is playing for a share of the conference title and an outside shot at the BTT one-seed.

The Wolverines are a six-seed in the most recent Bracket Matrix and they're popping up as a five-seed on a decent number of projections. A win would probably get Michigan up to a five-seed and maybe even a four-seed on some brackets—that's where Bart Torvik projects them should they pull the upset on Sunday. A loss wouldn't hurt Michigan's standing much; this game provides more upside than downside.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

While Maryland looked like the class of the Big Ten for much of the season, they've lost three of their last four, including dropping their first home game of the year to Michigan State on Saturday. Now they probably need to win just to share the conference crown with one or both of MSU and Wisconsin. It's also Anthony Cowan's senior day. The Terps should be playing with plenty of emotion and motivation.

Cowan is the engine that makes the Terps go. He almost never leaves the court and boasts the fifth-best assist rate in the conference. While his shooting from the field hasn't been good in Big Ten games, he's made up for a lot of his misses by drawing 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes(!) and hitting 81% of his free throws. Cowan is only making 33% of his three-pointers this year but he takes a lot of high-difficulty shots; he requires a lot of attention, particularly late in games, when he's hit a number of huge shots both this season and over his career.

Jalen Smith is a true stretch five who can still do the big man stuff [Sherman]

While Cowan is the heart of the team, their most talented—and this year, most effective—player is sophomore NBA prospect Jalen "Sticks" Smith, who's broken out as a unicorn stretch five/rim protector now that he's not sharing a frontcourt with Bruno Fernando. He's going to dictate how Michigan defends the high screen and likely their substitution patterns, since he too rarely leaves the court.

Smith is posting monster numbers: 63% on twos, 43% on threes, 78% at the line, top-three marks in block and defensive rebounding rates, and a top-15 offensive rebounding rate in Big Ten games. Like Cowan, he draws a lot of fouls. He doesn't turn it over much. There are very few holes to poke in his game. Jon Teske's mobility will be tested and Juwan Howard is going to have to decide whether Austin Davis is playable or he needs to go to Brandon Johns or Colin Castleton to prevent pick-and-pop triples.

The rest of the roster has been rather disappointing. While the supporting cast has been strong on defense, they've lacked offensive punch. The two other rotation players with ORatings above 100 have usage rates below 14%. The main problem is shooting. The Cowan-Sticks combination opens up great opportunities for spot-up shooters and Maryland ranks first in the conference with 46% of their field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc; the Terps rank in the tenth percentile as spot-up shooters on Synergy, however, and their best player with decent volume in that regard is... Jalen Smith.

Sophomore wing Eric Ayala, who also serves as a secondary ballhandler, is making under 40% of his twos and 25% of his threes in conference games. Three-and-D wing Aaron Wiggins is barely scraping above 30% from beyond the arc and has been coming off the bench for most of Big Ten play. Junior defensive specialist Darryl Morsell is actually outperforming both as a shooter but he's way more inclined to go the basket than spot up—he's only attempted 28 threes in conference games.

Freshman Donta Scott has been a pleasant surprise at power forward, moving into the starting lineup when Mark Turgeon was deciding whether to bench Ayala or Wiggins. He's a physical defender who mostly sticks to the fringes on offense and gets opportunities set up by others, which he finishes well.

The above players take on the vast majority of Maryland's minutes as Turgeon has gone with a rotation that rarely expands beyond seven or eight players for more than garbage minutes. Freshman wing Hakim Hart had ten straight DNPs before seeing the court in an increasing role over the last four games, though he's mostly just missed three-pointers.

Sophomore Serrell Smith is 14/56 from the field this year with an elevated turnover rate, which is why Hart is getting a chance. 6'8" stretch forward Ricky Lindo almost never shoots, though he's been successful on the rare occasion he does, and turns it over too much. 7'2" freshman Chol Mariol, who's been a disaster on offense, may see a couple minutes spelling Smith.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

For a team that's been on top of the toughest conference in the country for most of the last couple months, Maryland has a surprisingly mediocre statistical profile. They're sixth in the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line to make up for their 31% shooting from beyond the arc and average rebounding.

Like Michigan, Maryland's defense focuses less on turning the ball over than suppressing decent shots, though they're not as good at limiting perimeter opportunities as the Wolverines. Smith is the only shot-blocking threat on the team; if M can pull him away from the basket they'll be in great shape. Unfortunately, Smith almost never gets into foul trouble (one foul-out this season, only three games with four fouls), so there's little chance M gets to take advantage of an extended period without him on the court.

THE KEYS

Make the others beat you. Michigan should be able to throw everything they want defensively at Cowan and Sticks. Drop coverage is going to get burned by Smith's three-point shooting, so I expect and would like to see some hard hedging with a focus on getting the ball away from both Cowan and Smith. Maryland's shooting struggles are hard to overstate: they average below a point per play on unguarded spot-up shots, which ranks them in the 18th percentile on Synergy.

Figure out your rotation against stretch fives. This may very well be a game where Juwan Howard passes up on playing Austin Davis entirely—or at least not against Sticks—in favor of going small and making sure Smith doesn't get a few chances to light up the scoreboard when Teske needs a breather or gets into foul trouble. Given that this is a Big Ten road game and both Cowan and Sticks draw a lot of fouls at the rim, Howard needs to be prepared for extended time without Teske, and previous attempts to play Davis against mobile stretch fives have not gone well. Smith isn't overpoweringly strong, so this may be a better game for Johns or even Castleton.

Unleash the wings? Maryland doesn't match up great against a lineup with both Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner. They can put Scott on one of them but the other is going to face a significantly shorter player. While Livers hasn't been great off the dribble, he can get his shot up over these guys; meanwhile, Wagner could give the Terps a lot of trouble by driving to the hoop and being able to finish whether or not he gets by his defender. I wouldn't mind seeing a lot of off-ball action that either gets these guys going downhill or frees them up on the perimeter to shoot or attack closeouts.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Maryland by 3.

A road game against a desperate team that has a couple players who draw a ton of fouls? Let's hope this doesn't play out how the script usually dictates.