THE ESSENTIALS

Via sources, the tiger mascot has been replaced with this shit-talking doll.

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is back competing for the Cursed Trident of Atlantis, and begins the tournament against an athletic, up-tempo team of high-profile transfers that Penny Hardaway has assembled in a second swing at becoming the Prime U of basketball. Led by a two-time portal gem, the Tigers like to get in transition, create isolation for their slashers, and score at the rim. Their opponents thus far are two bottom-of-the barrel (#284 and #341 out of 362 teams on Kenpom) buy games and a centerless Mizzou team that just lost at home to the afore mentioned #284 team.

Michigan is coming off a defensive collapse against Long Beach State, an athletic up-tempo mid-major that might compete for the Big West but wasn't supposed to be competitive in Ann Arbor. Michigan's own suite of transfers are still trying to gel with a mostly sophomore core left over from a mostly Hunter Dickinson squad that is now definitively not that. Offsetting their recent upset is a win in Madison Square Garden against a somewhat suspect St. John's team in Year 1 under Zombie Rick Pitino that featured a rim monster and a bunch of transfer slashers. The Michigan team that beat them zoomed Dug into the lane and switched the athletes into oblivion in the second half.

Which team shows up to the Ballroom in the Bahamas is unknown. They're probably not going to be the Beach team. But like the ceiling in the weird hotel they play this thing in, there's still bound to be leaks.

[Hit THE JUMP for a day at a different beach.]

THE BRACKET

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Llewellyn did not make the trip. Juwan Howard did, but Martelli is expected to be on the sideline.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

This will have to be quick because there's a football game this weekend that's taking my attention. Also taking attention is big man Jordan Brown, who began his career in Nevada and traveled through Zona and Louisiana-Lafayette, where he led the Sun Belt in fouled rate and usage. They made the tournament as a 13 seed so I have a snapshot of Brown from last year's bracket matrix.

"That's what happens when you put one of Arizona's towers in the Sun Belt!" I hear you say, but Brown has a variety of post moves that cause trouble for centers. If you defeat the one he tries however, he's more likely than not to try a fadeaway. He is the usual option whenever running upcourt doesn't generate the mismatches Memphis wants, and a much more dangerous rebounder than this year's stats tell; on defense they mostly have him butt the opposition's big into the baseline while a hoppy Tigers teammate collects the ball. Brown was a monster on the boards in the Sun Belt and 10 ORebs/20 DRebs guy in Tucson before that. He will step out for the rare three—he was 10/24 on these in 2021-'22 and 2/10 on them last year—but doesn't draw attention there.

PF David Jones is the guy collecting the rebounds Brown creates. He's a pogo-stick who's a sub-30% shooter on high volume over two years at DePaul and one at St. John's, but has been on a tear this year: 10/19. Kentucky and Xavier were in the running for him as well; the flavor of sour grapes from jilted Kentucky fans is Jones needed to go somewhere to teach him to use his athleticism, and Memphis ain't it. That's borne out this year. Jones has always maintained a high steal rate, but he's been at fault for a bunch of lapses. Hardaway isn't going to overcoach him, and so far it's working, and Jones has an even higher usage (27.7) rate at Memphis than he did at his previous stops, and while his contested rim runs aren't going in, his threes are.

Double transfer PG Jahvon Quinerly is a name that's brushed against Michigan recruiting a few times, once before his commitment to Villanova in 2018, again with his transfer to Alabama a year later, and his more recent move to Memphis. Quinerly battled injuries at Bama and had a terrible final year there, but Nimari Burnett's former teammate remains a dangerous pullup shooter from the arc who gets squirrely in the lane. Quinerly slowly became an okay distributor in Tuscaloosa, but his turnover rate tends to fluctuate between high and "Good Lord, man!" This comes with tempo and trying to get to the rim on every play. He's effective at causing swipes and turning them into transition opportunities, and gave Missouri a ton of trouble with his athleticism.

Wichita State wing Jaykwon Walton is yet another slasher with a high turnover rate, though he's been more of an observer on this team. He was a knockdown shooter for the Shockers and led the conference in 2P% thanks to making 77/109 shots at the rim, half of those unassisted. His set shot is slow and needs to be set up, but as a tertiary scorer he is a dangerous driver. Before Wichita he was stuck for a couple of years on Georgia's bench. He's almost 24 years old, so his draft window is mostly closing, but the former four-star has the defensive tools to be a very effective college piece that reminds me of several wings to have come through Maryland in recent years.

The last guard-wing transfer slasher type is former Seminole Caleb Mills. FSU tried to make him the point guard last year to mixed results. His best attribute is getting to the rim and drawing fouls, which he's been making leaderboards for since he was a freshman in 2019-'20 at Houston. Mills lost his sophomore year to injury and spent the next two in Tallahassee trying to run an offense. He's quietly been doing a little bit of everything for Memphis this year. Michigan will probably have to expend Burnett on him defensively, since Mills loves to use his size to go up over shorter guards.

The bench:

• W Jayden Hardaway was born a shit-talking puppet who through a series of misadventures with a talking cricket has become a real boy, though not much of a real option offensively over five years of playing for his father, who uses him as a defensive changeup to mixed results. Last year was the first that he took on more than a deep bench role, and if he stayed at the arc and/or made his shots there he'd be JAS.
• C Malcolm Dandridge has been at Memphis as long as Hardaway, and is more offensive lineman than basketball player. He'll play 15 minutes, commit two fouls, rip down a rebound, and get a few putbacks.
• F Nick Jourdain is the switchy center option when Brown goes out, but is just on the edge of being playable against top competition at the 1. The Temple transfer is bouncy and athletic, and looks like he could make a three but doesn't take them. If you've been reading this thinking "Oh, Brandon Johns!" yuuuup.
• PG Jayhlon Young was a community college up-transfer last year who scored 17 points against FSU. He's got one move, which is a mid-jump transfer left-hook thing that's pretty. He's also twice as likely to pass it to an opponent as a teammate.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overall numbers:

Run run run run. Memphis is going to try to get in transition and then drive the lane on athletic mismatches, which leads to lots of action at the rim and lots of turnovers when they don't get there. They're also a team of transfers that hasn't gotten used to playing together defensively yet.

THE KEYS

Get back on defense. Shutting down the transition game was already going to be a focus after Long Beach, but it's also the thing you have to do to stop Memphis. That means knowing where your assignment is all the time.

Don't turn the ball over. Because that leads to runouts and see above.

Hey, we have athletes too! Everyone on the Tigers is an athlete, and their offensive attack is based on the premise that nobody they play can match up. This probably isn't the Tschetter game, I'm saying.

Watch: it'll be a Tschetter game. Because I am always wrong about Tschetter.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Memphis by 1.