Many in the Michigan sports community are starting to notice the women's basketball team, and rightfully so. They are now ranked 7th in the country and are 17-2 on the season. As the regular season hits the home stretch, what this Michigan team could achieve is starting to come into clearer focus and with it, the excitement is ratcheting up. If you've been sleeping on this team, or are new to women's college basketball, then my hope is this piece will catch you up to speed. And if you read far enough, you'll find a short preview of tonight's game against OSU. 

Introducing the team 

Much like last year, the team is headlined by star forward Naz Hillmon. She remains a dominant force inside the paint and anyone who watched the most recent game against Purdue, when she put up 32 and 12 on 12/14 from the floor (8/10 from the line), would have noticed that. Naz is still nearly automatic in the post against a lone defender, and can still finish with two defenders in the vicinity: 

Too easy.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/GKYbw5WC4x

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 24, 2022

What has changed this year though is that Naz isn't doing quite as much scoring for the team as she did last year. Her points per game clip is down a few ticks, as is her rebounds per game average. That's not a bad thing though, because this is a case of the team finally developing additional go-to options for the offense, taking some of the load off of Hillmon's shoulders. This was seen in the Maryland game early in January, when Hillmon posted a rather quiet 9 points, yet Michigan still beat a good team because two other plugs on the offense came along and carried the weight that night. The two players I'm referring to there are Leigha Brown and Maddie Nolan. 

The growth of Brown is probably the more significant of the two, but both are key reasons for Michigan's jump as a program this year. The former Nebraska transfer was already a key piece last year, but this season she's grown as a ballhandler, and as a shooter. As for the former, Brown is now in a more assertive role in the offense, running things out of the PNR and forming a potent combo there with Hillmon, making Michigan's offense more than just the All Naz All The Time show. In terms of shooting, Brown's seen her three point clip improve from .308 last season to .349 this year, which is a big deal for a Michigan team that could use some more perimeter shooters. Her biggest moment came back in December when Brown scored 25 points in 41 minutes(!) to lead Michigan to victory against a good Baylor team in OT while Naz was off her game: 

She was huge all game.

And she delivered when it mattered most. ?@leigha32brown // @umichwbball pic.twitter.com/nTmfnr5MRf

— Michigan On BTN (@MichiganOnBTN) December 19, 2021

Speaking of perimeter shooters, Maddie Nolan has made her name known in Michigan circles after her bonkers effort against Maryland, where she was 7/11 from three point range. Each year of her Wolverines career has seen Nolan improve her three point clip, but it's taken a dramatic jump this year all the way up to a sizzling .478 (!), despite also seeing volume increase substantially. In other words, she's shooting more than ever and also making them at a higher rate than ever before. Nolan is mostly Just A Shooter in terms of her offensive impact (90 of her 121 FGAs this season have been 3PTAs), but that's fine since Nolan's signature skill is an element that Michigan has generally lacked in the post-Katelynn Flaherty era. Kim Barnes-Arico runs pretty simple screens to isolate Nolan outside and she's knocking those shots down: 

.@maddienolan20 has SEVEN triples!#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/1SbMGf0T4x

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 16, 2022

Another name to talk about in terms of development is Emily Kiser. Michigan's starting center has gone from a reserve big who was good for a couple points and a couple boards in ~10 minutes per night to a 30+ minutes player who is averaging 10.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG, playing next to Naz Hillmon in a way that doesn't obstruct Michigan's ability to run their offense. Though she's still not much of a perimeter threat, Kiser is a good free throw shooter and showed the growth of her passing with seven assists against Purdue on Monday. 

Those four are the weapons in the starting lineup, and the growth of Kiser, Brown, and Nolan have allowed Naz to focus less on scoring and more on other uses in the offense. Her assist rate is up over a year ago, and she plays a role in setting the screens to scheme Nolan open. The combination of Naz's passing and Leigha Brown's ability to score off the dribble can be seen in this clip from the Purdue game: 

Toughhhhh finish from LB.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/3G0uAxYy7r

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 24, 2022

Pretty good! 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More about the team]

Point guard is the spot where there's been some uncertainty this year. Amy Dilk entered the season as the projected starting PG, but then suffered a knee injury just minutes into the season opener. That pushed Danielle Rauch into that spot, seeing her minutes per game double from last year (now up to 31 per game). For much of Dilk's absence, Rauch affirmed her spot in the lineup by bringing a shooting presence of her own, but that's cooled off in recent weeks (3 for her last 25 from three). Dilk's injury turned out to not be as serious as previously thought and she's slowly been working her way back into the fold. Her most recent game against Purdue being one of her best yet, logging 18 minutes and scoring on this flashy finish: 

Too nifty with it, @amydilk!#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/gxWr47j7Sp

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 25, 2022

We still need to see more from Dilk, but if her three point shot can return to its 2019-20 form, that would be a big development for Michigan's ability to score from outside consistently. Her return now gives Michigan three options in the backcourt next to Nolan, because Laila Phelia's rise was a pretty notable storyline during the time Dilk was out with injury. The freshman guard has started to give the Wolverines key minutes off the bench, and she looks like the future of their program after this star studded senior class graduates. Phelia is not a potent outside shooter yet, but she can defend well and is electric as a penetrator off the dribble, not unlike fellow freshman from the men's team Frankie Collins: 

Defense to offense for @Lailaphelia.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/H2ZryPTCIl

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 21, 2022

The rest of the bench is not as notable but they all have their roles. Ari Wiggins is another quick freshman guard, but one who has yet to make an impact as a scorer, while Michelle Sidor is a bit older but has a similar player profile. Elise Stuck is a sophomore wing who has a decent presence inside, and Cameron Williams is a reserve big who has had her flashes, including 10 and 5 in 12 minutes against Wisconsin last week and figures to have a big role next season. If nothing else, the bench is worth keeping your eye on to see a glimpse of what the team could look like next year.  

Maddie Nolan helped Michigan topple a B1G contender 10 days ago [Paul Sherman]

Surveying the Big Ten chase

Michigan women's hoops have never won the B1G regular season title, but there is now a chance that the drought could end this season. Though we're still a month from the regular season ending, and there are plenty of games to be played, one can argue that Michigan's got as good of a shot as anyone to win the conference crown. Standings: 

Michigan has done well to position itself near the top of the league, but the remaining schedule is not easy. Only a road game in Champaign against Illinois is a truly "easy" game. The remainders are @OSU, IU, Iowa (x2), MSU (x2), @Northwestern, and Maryland. The Wolverines will have to earn it. 

Indiana leads the conference but has recently been dealt a tough hand due to star center Mackenzie Holmes undergoing surgery on her knee that will keep her out an extended period of time, definitely through the Indiana/Michigan clash at Crisler on Monday. That's a game to circle. The Hoosiers have also missed three straight games due to COVID-19 and it's unclear how many of those will be made up. Win percentage could decide of the conference title. 

These two teams will meet on Monday with huge implications [JD Scott]

Iowa lurks as a player, strong in the conference so far, but like Michigan, they have a difficult remaining schedule, so not much can be said about them overall yet. Ohio State has two losses in conference play, and one of them is to Michigan. The two teams also play tonight (you can read my brief preview later), and a Michigan win tonight would knock the Buckeyes down farther, while giving Michigan the H2H tiebreaker. Huge implications. The only other team in the hunt is Maryland, who already have three losses (all of which to other contenders) but who are a good team, in the top 25 in RPI. Their end of the season stretch will determine a lot, as they play Iowa, OSU, Michigan, and Indiana in a row. 

Long story short, there's still a lot of basketball to be played. Michigan should feel good about where they're at, but this is a competitive race and there are tons of head-to-head matchups between the top contenders still to be played. We don't know all that much about who's going to take home the regular season crown yet. 

The Big Ten Tournament will be played from March 3-6 in Indianapolis at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse (formerly the Bankers Life Fieldhouse). The bracket looks the same as the men's tournament, with the top four seeds getting a double bye into the quarterfinals. Not just has Michigan never won a regular season title, but they've also never won a BTT title, so this represents another milestone to check off for Kim Barnes-Arico's crew. 

Beating Baylor was nice for the RPI [David Wilcomes]

The national picture 

So where has Michigan's strong season put them in terms of the national chase for the NCAA Tournament? Right now the answer is on the fringe of the 2-line and the 3-line. The B1G is not exactly a power WBB conference but Michigan's win over Baylor in the non-conference and success inside B1G play has bolstered their RPI, which the committee is quite reliant on. Michigan currently clocks in 8th or 9th in RPI (depending on whose you use), while the NET rankings are a bit more unfavorable at 22nd. This isn't a situation like football where simply winning your conference gets you in the top five. The B1G isn't that good, and Michigan's blowout loss at the hands of an elite Louisville team in the non-con is going to be a major obstacle to getting on the 1-line. But a 2 seed seems possible. 

ESPN's bracketologist Charlie Creme had Michigan as a 3-seed in his most recent bracket projection: 

That would set up a rematch with Louisville in the sweet sixteen, hypothetically, which would not be easy. That said, the previous game was an uncharacteristically poor effort by Michigan and it was on the road, whereas this would be in a neutral venue. I think Michigan would have a better shot if it were come to pass, but the Cardinals would still be favored. In that projection, should Michigan win that game, they'd likely see (1) Tennessee in the Elite Eight, which would also be quite difficult. There remains a decent sized gap between the ultra-elite in WBB and the very good (which is where Michigan probably is), but nothing is impossible. Plus, seasons like this are required for KBA's program to keep climbing the ladder with the goal of eventually reaching that level of excellence year-in and year-out. 

One thing you may notice about that bracket is the "Ann Arbor" label over Michigan's pod. The women's tournament consists of home sites for the first two rounds, followed by neutral venues for the regionals and the Final Four. So long as Michigan's season continues reasonably on the track it's on, the first ever home NCAA Women's Tournament games at Crisler Center seem like a very plausible scenario. It'd be a pretty cool scene if it were to happen, and I'd hope fans could pack the building. This year's regionals are Spokane, Greensboro, Wichita, and Bridgeport, and then the Final Four is in Minneapolis. 

The first meeting between these teams was fun [JD Scott]

Previewing OSU 

As promised, I'm going to give you a brief preview of tonight's game against the Buckeyes. This is a huge game, not just for the B1G standings, but also for continuing to maintain Michigan's current RPI, as OSU finds themselves inside the top 40 of that metric. The first meeting between the two teams back on New Year's Eve was not terribly competitive, with Michigan winning 90-71. However, that was at Crisler Center, and this one will be in Columbus. Michigan's two stars led the way in that one, Naz scoring 29 and Leigha Brown scoring 24. Michigan's guards struggled but it did't matter much because their bigs were so dominant: Naz, Emily Kiser, and Cameron Williams went 19/28 from two (15/16 at the line) with 32 rebounds, scoring 59 points. 

Ohio State's strength lies not on the interior, but from their three point shots. They rank #1 in America in 3PT%, firing at 40.7% from beyond the arc. Most of that comes from their two leading scorers Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell. Mikesell in particular is a menace, shooting 49% from three on eight attempts per game(!), while Sheldon only attempts ~four per game, but is hitting at nearly 45% herself. Those two combined to go 7/17 from distance in the first meeting, but OSU as a team was only 41% from two and those two were the only reliable contributors, combining for 51 of 71 points. No other Buckeye had more than eight points (it was a slightly shorter OSU bench than normal based on available players but eight players did play meaningful minutes), and only three other players scored any points at all. 

I'd expect Michigan to look to establish that post presence yet again and see if they can't run OSU off the three line. The Bucks will still pull up from three often because that's their game, but taking away the other contributors besides Sheldon and Mikesell and forcing more two point attempts seems like the formula to replicate. The game tips off at 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcasted on BTN.