[Eric Upchurch – MGoBlog]

PREVIOUSLY: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan

Despite finishing behind Indiana in the regular season Big Ten standings, it feels inarguable that Michigan State had the conference’s best team a year ago (their NCAA Tournament seed – a two, and the next highest Big Ten programs were three five-seeds – certainly suggests that). They were led by Denzel Valentine, the best player in the Big Ten, a senior who dominated college basketball in his final season, as well as two other seniors: steady big man Matt Costello and three-point sniper Bryn Forbes. Throw in talented 5* one-and-done power forward Deyonta Davis, and it was considered by many to be a national title frontrunner.

It came as somewhat of a surprise that MSU didn’t receive a one-seed. Perhaps it was the scheduling: the Spartans had three sub-300 opponents in the non-conference portion of the season and a season series against Rutgers helped drag down their RPI. They had a week mid-January where they lost three straight – routed by Iowa at home, lost at Wisconsin and at home against Nebraska, each by a single point. They destroyed Indiana in the teams’ only meeting and won the Big Ten Tournament after close victories over Maryland and Purdue. So it came as a bit of a surprise when State found themselves on the two-line with a first round matchup against 15-seed Middle Tennessee St.

[More on the Spartans after the JUMP]

Of course, that game wound up being one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. MTSU raced out to a 15-2 lead and never trailed in the game; the Blue Raiders and their pick-and-pop attack exploited the Spartan big men – 11-19 from three is the type of performance necessary to spring colossal upsets like this one. It was an insanely efficient game from the underdogs – their 1.32 points per possession number was the biggest allowed by State all season by a decent margin. MSU’s offense also played well, but a subpar game from Valentine hurt (subpar by his standards: 5-13 shooting for 13 points, 0 FTA, 6 rebounds, 12 assists but 6 turnovers).

Michigan State was a deep team, but they’re losing a lot at the top. Valentine, Costello, and Forbes were foundational pieces lost to graduation, Davis was a potential star that was lost early to the NBA Draft. Additionally, Javon Bess and Marvin Clark – rotation wings – transferred out of the program and former walk-on Colby Wollenman also departed. In terms of key players from last season, only Eron Harris – a West Virginia transfer – remains; Harris was effectively the off-ball guard next to Valentine.

Tom Izzo, who’d recently lost out on several notable battles for elite players on the recruiting trail, saw a reversal of fortune as the Spartans signed what’s easily the best recruiting class in the Big Ten. The wing transfers were surely due in part to the incoming 5* swingmen, Miles Bridges and Josh Langford – Bridges is a combo forward who’s a one-and-done type athlete, Langford is an aggressive two-guard who thrives attacking the rim. They’re joined by Cassius Winston, a Detroit PG who’s one of the best 4* prospects in the country. Big man Nick Ward was also a Top 50 player.

Izzo will have a tougher time getting his talent to coalesce this season, but the talent’s there and it’s unwise to bet against him.

LAST SEASON

As the chart suggests, Denzel Valentine was simply a special player. His combination of usage and efficiency was National Player of the Year caliber – very comparable to Trey Burke’s outstanding 2013 campaign. Like Burke did, Valentine engineered a superb offense with his passing and individual shot-making: the Spartans ranked second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (per Kenpom) and had the best three-point shooting in the country, largely because of Valentine.

Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello will be difficult to replace. Forbes shot an insane 48% from three – the next-highest percentage from anybody with at least a comparable level of attempts was Oklahoma’s NPOY, Buddy Hield, at 46% (Hield did shoot way more than Forbes). Costello was the recipient of many beautiful Valentine assists, but he also showed a nice back-to-the-basket game on occasion; he was what you’d expect to get from a senior that was a highly-rated four-year prospect. Deyonta Davis was the only other significant loss.

Eron Harris stepped into a great situation at State and was the team’s secondary creator behind Valentine, though he was much less efficient than him; Harris’s efficiency relative to his other teammates can probably be explained by the burden of responsibility that he had to create scoring looks, as opposed to cashing them in. He’s probably State’s most important player this season, as he’ll be tasked with running the show and distributing the ball to State’s talent. His turnover rate of 18.9 is worrisome in that regard.

The bubble graphic also demonstrates how little State will be returning this season – outside of Harris, everyone else was an iffy role player. Alvin Ellis did fine when he played, but saw the floor less than the two wings who transferred out. Kenny Goins, a former walk-on who’s a good defensive traditional four, is perhaps the biggest bright spot of that group of players.

Four Factor Z-Scores from games against Big Ten opponents

A team with this level of shooting and shot defense usually finds itself among the nation’s best and MSU was no exception: the Spartans finished best in the league in both categories, as well as in total offensive and defensive points per possession in conference play. Their excellent shooting was mostly due to their torrid three-point attack (46.6% as a team in the Big Ten!) and the shot defense was due to a very low two-point FG% allowed (42.3%, largely due to the imposing presence of Costello and / or Davis down low).

The other four factor categories were typical of a Michigan State team, though the low defensive turnover rate was somewhat of a surprise. The Spartans overwhelmed opponents on the glass on both sides of the floor and had a typically great rebounding team. Their low FT Rate number is probably due to the fact that they could slice up defenses at will and weren’t forced to try drawing fouls to jump-start their scoring. This year’s team will be much different from last year’s, so the four factor information isn’t as valuable, but it does underscore how great the 2015-16 State hoops team was.

NEWCOMERS

Even though the 2016-17 Spartans will be a much different team, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be that much worse. MSU has the best recruiting class in the country behind Duke and Kentucky’s juggernaut classes; while the Spartans won’t have the kind of freshman talent that makes you an immediate title contender, they possibly have the best four-year projection of any team’s 2016 class. Flint native Miles Bridges gets some love from NBA Draft people and he’s the biggest one-and-done risk of the class.

Bridges surely will stand out because of his athleticism and while his NBA position is still unclear, he seems destined to be a four at State – though not a traditional PF like Izzo sometimes prefers – who will spend time with the ball in his hands. His best attributes are defense (both on-ball and as a shot-blocker) and rebounding, but he’s a line drive attacker on offense – his handle and outside shot aren’t great. It does seem like he’s being overrated by national college hoops writers: while it’s possible he plays at a 1st-Team All-Big Ten level, it’s also possible that he struggles a bit as a scorer in his first year against college defenders. In any case, his NBA potential will be pretty evident any time he’s on the floor.

Another freshman who’s likely to start is Josh Langford, a guy who saw his spot taken at Michigan by Tyus Battle (who later decommitted) before giving his pledge to Michigan State; it’s a huge win for the Spartans as the physical and explosive shooting guard should fit in nicely with Izzo. He’s a bully offensively and has good defensive potential, but isn’t a great shooter and could be complicit in possible spacing issues for MSU. Still, he’s a 5* – he should find himself at the free throw line often because of his first step and strength with the ball in his hands.

Cassius Winston and Nick Ward will be competing with veterans for a starting role but both will play plenty and could easily earn the lion’s share of minutes at point guard and center, respectively. Winston is a great scoring point guard with average size and above average court-vision, though his outside shot is a little funky and he can be turnover-prone. Ward is a wide body who can grab offensive rebounds and block shots with his wingspan, despite the fact he’s not particularly tall or leapy – and he doesn’t have a refined offensive game.

Ben Carter – a grad transfer from UNLV – would have been in the mix to start at center but he’s out indefinitely with an injury.

PROJECTED ROTATION

• STARTER (POINT GUARD) – Cassius Winston (Fr, 6’0, 185): Will probably ascend to start over Tum Tum Nairn, doesn’t have great size or quickness but is otherwise a fantastic offensive player, defense might be an issue at this level.
• STARTER (COMBO GUARD) – Eron Harris (R-Sr, 6’3, 190): State’s lone returning starter, a freewheeling combo guard who’s a great outside shooter (44%), may see a downturn in efficiency if he’s forced to shoulder more of the load offensively.
• STARTER (GUARD) – Josh Langford (Fr, 6’5, 210): Good at creating for himself, could possibly be State’s leading scorer, has a very physical style, should play starter minutes at the 2/3 spots (might be forced to play the 3 more, but can probably handle it).
• STARTER (WING) – Miles Bridges (Fr, 6’7, 230): Above-the-rim athlete has a good feel for the game, has the highest potential of anyone at the team, might not be developed enough yet skill-wise, but at the very least will be an elite defender and rebounder for his position.
• STARTER (POST) – Gavin Schilling (Sr, 6’9, 240): Great screen-setter and rebounder, not very efficient for being a center, poor free throw shooter, hasn’t played starter minutes at State and may not be able to because he’s very foul prone.
• BENCH (POINT GUARD) – Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn (Jr, 5’10, 175): Talked up a lot for his leadership abilities, posted an awful < 40 eFG%, lightning quick, has high assist and turnover rates, often overwhelmed by bigger, more physical opponents.
• BENCH (COMBO GUARD) – Matt McQuaid (So, 6’4, 200): State’s sixth man last year shot better on threes than twos (and took more of them), had a high turnover rate, was only a complementary offensive option at most.
• BENCH (WING) – Alvin Ellis III (Sr, 6’4, 210): Undersized wing is a good outside shooter on small sample size, good steal rate, efficient player in his role, has been a subject of transfer rumors during his career.
• BENCH (TRADITIONAL FOUR) – Kenny Goins (R-So, 6’6, 230): Only played spot minutes but looked good, posted decent efficiency (though he’s a bad FT shooter), good offensive rebounding rate, he’s a good defender.
• BENCH (POST) – Nick Ward (Fr, 6’8, 250): Classic under-the-rim Big Ten big man, burly, uses his size well as a rebounder, high-motor but might not have good enough conditioning for big minutes, should be a great long-term prospect under Izzo.

PLAYER COMPARISON

A few years ago, I came up with a system that would compare the statistical profiles of Big Ten players to their historical counterparts by taking the sum of the differences between a given player’s profile and each of the thousand player-seasons from 2008-present in twenty different statistical categories.

# value is the Z-Score of the player’s statistic (or statistics averaged over multiple seasons) relative to the entire sample

Eron Harris is the rare high-major to high-major transfer that played a lot at both schools – comparing his statistical production at West Virginia to what he did at State is a good insight into how players change over time, and perhaps how the scheme affected his play. The biggest thing is that he played less at MSU – just 51.9% of available minutes down from 77.8%. His assist rate went up, his overall usage went down slightly (as did his efficiency), and he got fewer steals while committing more fouls. With State’s depth last season, it made sense to limit Harris’s minutes some, so that’s why that number is low relative to his comparables.

There’s a heavy Minnesota bent to the list of statistically similar players: Lawrence Westbrook and Andre Hollins each appeared thrice in his top 15, while Lawrence McKenzie and Devoe Joseph each showed up once. It’s an eclectic list altogether: a guy like Hollins is similar – a scoring combo guard without size – but Vince Edwards, for example, is more of a stretch forward. All in all, the data suggests that Harris is a fairly average Big Ten starter at the one or two.

OUTLOOK

It feels like many national writers look at Michigan State’s recruiting class and the presence of one of the sport’s best coaches and assume that the Spartans will automatically be in the hunt for a Final Four appearance yet again. The losses they suffered would normally be catastrophic: even though State was able to sign multiple players who could contribute at a high level right away, the impact of no more Valentine, no more Costello, no more Forbes, and no more Davis will be keenly felt, especially early in the season.

Michigan State likes to challenge itself in the non-conference portion of the season and this year is very tough: State faces Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, and plays in a decent Battle 4 Atlantis field. If this team isn’t gelling right away, there could be some rough spots early on. That’s the thing: this team is very young and will be counting on freshmen – very good ones, but still freshmen – maybe more than anyone else in the conference. It’s always said that Izzo gets the squad to its full potential by March and that potential is definitely there, but there are a lot of moving pieces and it’s not guaranteed to work out as well as it does on paper.

A lot will depend on how well Langford or Bridges is able to acclimate to life as the #1 scorer at the college level; while both have All-Big Ten potential, it’s not a sure thing that their games will smoothly translate to the college level – at the very least, Bridges will be a defensive menace and elite energy guy, but can he consistently beat people off the dribble or hit threes at a decent clip? Will Langford be able to do other things if bullying his way to the rim isn’t working? Are Winston and Ward starter-level players right now? There are definitely some questions.

But they’re good questions to have. Izzo hasn’t ever had a team so reliant on freshmen, but with the talent level and coaching ability in East Lansing, it’s a good bet that any chemistry issues are ironed out quickly. Still, this has the feeling of a higher-variance team than many are expecting: the ceiling with Bridges – a guy who could potentially be a one-and-done lottery pick – is very high, but freshmen are freshmen and the returning players aren’t that special. I’m not confident enough to pick them to win the league like many are doing, though a Top 4 finish seems likely.