Recruiting "Sweet Spot"

Recruiting stars are never an exact science. For every five star that turns into a complete bust (Derrick Green) there is a three star guy that everyone whiffed on and turns into a star (Jake Ryan). So what Rivals tells you is never an end-all, be-all. There is also a question of how the player fits the scheme, personality fit, how he responds to coaching, the staff's ability to develop talent, etc. If none of that mattered, then MSU wouldn't have won as much as it has. 

That being said, recruiting stars do matter. Very heavily in fact. There is a big reason that you see Alabama in the title game every single year. Or that the playoffs are typically loaded with teams who recruit at a bare minimum of top-10 level every year. You can't field a team with mostly three star talent and realistically expect to compete for a national championship. You just can't. Not all the guys you recruited are going to reach the superstar level and out-perform their recruiting ranking. Sometimes the recruiting sites get it wrong, but basic probability says that most of those guys are going to have certain limitations to their game. They're three stars for a reason.

Case in point: MSU was a scrappy, very formidable, well-coached team in 2015. Dantonio found the perfect guys to fit his system and he coached them up to maximize their talents. That was good enough to win them the Big Ten and make the playoff. But absolutely none of that mattered when they ran into Alabama. Alabama was just as well-coached, had a coach who developed talent just as well as Dantonio, just as formidable (if not moreso), but Alabama had in spades what MSU didn't: elite athletes. Elite talent. MSU was talented, but their guys were not the same level athletes that Alabama had. Not even close. They were just bigger, faster, and stronger in every phase of the game, and it showed throughout the game. 

Rivals doesn't always get it right, but Alabama, Georgia and OSU are proof that those stars do matter. 

Saw 9 down votes, 0 up...Thanks for saving me the time, fellas

Program power and stability long-term depends on recruiting 5 stars, sure, but mostly it depends on recruiting depth. Your lesser heralded recruits who end up being solid players year in and year out. This is Alabama. Their 5 star guys are only with the program for 3 years. But that defense just rolls out solid big nasty dudes every year no matter the turnover. They are deep, and they weed out the chaff on the back end, unceremoniously, without a thought. They recruit kids to play football and when they are no longer serviceable, they get rid of them. We would have a problem with it. They do not. This is what we are up against.

There's definitely been a lot of concern - some of the troll variety, and some legit - about the overall quality of the 2018 class. To me, I don't think there is much validity to those concerns and for a number of reasons. Most importantly, I think guys on this staff like Brown, Mattison, Partridge and Jim Harbaugh himself have proven they are excellent evaluators of talent. Jim Harbaugh sent dozens of non-blue chip caliber high school players to the NFL including Zack Ertz and Richard Sherman to name a few. He recruited Karan Higdon, Chris Evans, Zach Gentry, Sean McKeon, Khaleke Hudson, Josh Matellus etc. onto this roster. Middling 3 to low 4 star guys, most of whom are starters and highly regarded players. These coaches know how to break down recruiting film and know what they are looking for. Sometimes they agree with the services, sometimes they don't, but they've proven they know what they are doing

Secondly, looking at Michigan's depth chart, it's littered all over the two-deep of players with 2 and 3 years left of eligiblity. Now that's one thing for an Alabama or an Ohio State - programs that are perenially in the college football playoffs. Blue chips realize they go there wait for the guy in front of them to go pro then get their shot at a title run. Realistically Michigan is not there yet, but they do have everything else high profile players are looking for. So when you can offer everything but proven championship contention + early playing time, you can get some of the guys Ohio State and Alabama were also chasing. Michigan couldn't offer much early playing time in this cycle, so they had to turn their focus to guys that have high ceilings in the staff's opinion, but need a little more development than a high-4/5 star guy does. And I think that is what you are seeing reflected in the star rankings for 2018.

I am still willing to bet we get some damn good players out of this class. Miles Sims, both Doyle and Milton and Hassan Haskins look like they have legitimate, high impact play maker potential at the high D 1 level in my opinion. When we really have a chance to evaluate this class three years from now, my guess is we will be plesantly surprised

I don't quite understand why people think it's that difficult to understand.

Any individual player, no matter what he is rated, could turn out to be great or could possibly never see the field during a game. 

That said, 5 stars (as a whole) are more likely to succeed than 4 stars, and 4 stars are more likely to succeed than three stars.

What does that mean?

It means you want to have a top-five rated recruiting class. 

Yes, some three stars will be great. Yes, some five stars will be busts.

Statistically, if you have a top-five recruiting class year after year, you have better chances for more players to be great, and thus you have a better chance of making the playoffs and winning a national championship. 

Year-in-and-year-out the teams that win/compete for national championships have top-rated recruiting classes.

The rankings of individual players are going to be off. The class rankings are more likely to accurately reflect the type of team you're going to field. 

If you're looking for anything more scientific than that, well, good luck. Hard to predict character, injuries and other things. 

it is, but next time--what the hell--do everyone the courtesy of showing you give a big enough crap to throw in some paragraphs and stuff. Because--speaking as a former English prof--I can tell you that when a kid handed me something like this I always felt just a little insulted. If you haven't considered the reader at all, why would they want to read? 

Maybe Harbaugh could then develop them into "unentitled" 5 stars who use their elite athleticism and football skilz to win us some more games!  I prefer that to using the MSU Dantonio diamond in the rough 3 star approach.  I'd even take a nice big pool of 4 stars every year. 

Just a thought.

Mike Hart 3*

Boubicar Cissoko 5*