Big Ten Tournament Preview: Illinois
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
Michigan (20-11, 10-8 B1G) vs Illinois (18-13, 8-10) |
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WHERE |
A Mostly Empty Arena Washington DC |
WHEN |
Updated tipoff: 12:20 pm ET |
LINE |
Michigan -6 (KenPom) Michigan -6.5 (Vegas) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler Analyst: Jon Crispin |
Right: Michigan's co-MVP turns away as DJ Wilson celebrates his authoritative dunk. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
THE US
Michigan enters the Big Ten Tournament in a good spot. They're one of the hottest teams in the conference and have moved into the "lock" section on pretty much any bracket you can find; after fighting their way off the bubble, they're playing for seeding.
At the moment, Michigan is a nine-seed on most brackets, and they'd probably need a deep run in the conference tournament to have a shot at avoiding an 8/9 game—the winner of which, of course, gets a one-seed in the second round. That's the bad news. The good news, according to ESPN's John Gasaway, is Michigan fits the profile of a giant killer:
Beilein's men finished conference play with easily the best offense in the league, and the UM defense looked much better once opponents stopped making well over half of their 3-point attempts. Derrick Walton Jr. is far and away the best point guard that no one ever brings up as one of the nation's best point guards, and Michigan loves to torment opposing defenses by stretching the floor with five legitimate 3-point shooting threats. The Wolverines would be the underdog in a round-of-32 game against Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina or Gonzaga, but this group could definitely keep things interesting.
While Michigan would like to avoid those teams, they've got a better than than most at springing a major upset.
UPDATE: Michigan's team plane was involved in an accident caused by the extreme high winds in the area. Everyone, thankfully, is fine. Statement from SID Tom Wywrot:
The Michigan men's basketball team plane was involved in an accident Wednesday afternoon. After attempting to take off in high winds, takeoff was aborted and, after strong braking, the plane slide off runway. The plane sustained extensive damage but everyone on board was safely evacuated and is safe. The team is making alternate travel plans.
Let's hope they make it to DC without any further incident. Driving isn't much of an option given the early tipoff tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: More on the travel situation:
That was crazy,glad everyone is ok! Coach B's leadership was great, he helped everyone off the plane as they slid down the emergency slide. pic.twitter.com/sDWz6DWEoE
— Jon Sanderson (@CampSanderson) March 8, 2017
The option of Michigan busing to Washington D.C. is not being considered at this time.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 8, 2017
Big Ten waiting on Michigan's official finalized travel plans to make any decision per ESPN.
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) March 8, 2017
Spoke with Big Ten officials. There's no procedure in place for moving games or rescheduling, should it have to come to that. New territory.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 8, 2017
For those asking. I can confirm that Austin Hatch, who remains a part of the Michigan program, was not on the plane today. He was in class.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 8, 2017
I'll keep this post updated.
UPDATE 3: The team will take an early flight to DC and play the game as scheduled.
Here is a travel update for #GoBlue
— Michigan Basketball (@umichbball) March 9, 2017
We can't wait to get to D.C. on Thursday and compete for Michigan! pic.twitter.com/HqZYiEoM7b
UPDATE 4: Michigan didn't arrive at the arena until 10:40 am and the Big Ten somehow didn't have a contingency plan in place. After some negotiation, the game will tip off at 12:20 pm. Thanks, Delany.
THE LAST TIME
The first matchup between these two teams was the debacle in Champaign that prompted Illini center Maverick Morgan to describe Michigan's program as "white collar."
The second matchup went a bit different:
Michigan won 66-57 in a game that wasn't as close as that score would indicate. DJ Wilson led the way with 19 points, six offensive rebounds, and five assists; he also scored 19 in the game at Illinois. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin both had double-digit point totals, while a more motivated defense held the Illini to 0.86 PPP.
This, of course, was the genesis of Michigan's midseason turnaround.
Derrick Walton Jr. was asked yesterday if, in hindsight, Michigan got the boost it needed from Maverick Morgan's "white collar" comment: pic.twitter.com/YhAQj3t9Eq
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 8, 2017
I would not be against Michigan fans chanting "MVP" when Morgan touches the ball.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
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G | 3 | Te'Jon Lucas | Fr. | 6'0, 170 | 42 | 18 | 95 | Not Really | |||||||||||
Became starter in late Jan for defense. Pass-first PG, rarely shoots, TO-prone. First matchup: 23 mins, 5 pts (1/1 2p, 1/1 3p), 1 reb, 8 ast, 1 to, 1 stl Second matchup: 15 mins, 8 pts (1/1 2p, 1/1 3p), 1 to, 1 stl |
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G | 13 | Tracy Abrams | Gr. | 6'2, 185 | 64 | 19 | 106 | No | |||||||||||
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow. First matchup: 24 mins, 4 pts (1/2 2p, 0/1 3p), 2 reb, 3 ast, 1 to, 1 stl Second matchup: 23 mins, 2 pts (1/3 2p, 0/2 3p), 2 reb, 3 ast, 3 to |
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G | 21 | Malcolm Hill | Sr. | 6'6, 225 | 84 | 26 | 114 | No | |||||||||||
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls. First matchup: 32 mins, 15 pts (3/5 2p, 1/3 3p, 6/7 ft), 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 to Second matchup: 32 mins, 16 pts (5/8 2p, 0/2 3p), 2 reb (1 off), 7 ast, 2 stl |
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F | 12 | Leron Black | So. | 6'7, 220 | 44 | 23 | 101 | Very | |||||||||||
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line. First matchup: 17 mins, 10 pts (5/9 2p, 0/1 3p), 5 reb (1 off) Second matchup: 13 mins, 4 pts (2/2 2p), 4 reb (2 off), 1 to |
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C | 22 | Maverick Morgan | Sr. | 6'10, 245 | 63 | 21 | 105 | Very | |||||||||||
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder. Elite motivator. First matchup: 29 mins, 16 pts (8/9 2p), 1 reb, 4 ast, 3 to, 1 blk, 1 stl Second matchup: 22 mins, 6 pts (3/5 2p), 2 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 3 to, 1 blk |
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G | 5 | Jalen Coleman-Lands | So. | 6'3, 190 | 61 | 17 | 98 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™ made 43% of 3P in B1G play. First matchup: 31 mins, 12 pts (0/3 2p, 4/5 3p), 3 reb, 4 ast, 2 to Second matchup: 20 mins, 2 pts (1/3 2p, 0/1 3p), 1 reb (1 off), 1 stl |
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F | 43 | Michael Finke | So. | 6'10, 230 | 49 | 17 | 109 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Stretch four with career 52/38/62 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder. First matchup: 12 mins, 10 pts (2/2 2p, 2/2 3p), 3 reb (1 off) Second matchup: 13 mins, 4 pts (1/1 3p), 3 reb |
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F | 2 | Kipper Nichols | Fr. | 6'6, 225 | 21 | 19 | 101 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Crushed M on boards in first matchup, earned way into 8-man rotation. First matchup: 19 mins, 13 pts (5/8 2p, 1/1 3p), 8 reb (5 off) Second matchup: 17 mins, 4 pts (2/5 2p, 0/2 3p), 3 reb, 2 to |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
First game preview. Second game preview.
Illinois has made a change to their starting lineup and tightened their rotation since the last meeting. Freshman point guard Te'Jon Lucas replaced swingman Jalen Coleman-Lands as a starter for their Jan. 25 win over Iowa and John Groce has stayed with that lineup. Lucas is in there in large part because he's a plus defender; he finished third in the conference in steal rate. His offense is still coming along; he's a pass-first, shoot-last point guard, but his turnover rate is higher than you'd want from that type of player.
After going as many as 12-deep for much of the season, Groce has also shortened his bench considerably. Coleman-Lands and Michael Finke provide good outside shooting off the bench, while the unexpected star of the first matchup, Kipper Nichols, adds rebounding, athleticism, and the occasional three. No other reserve has played in the last three games.
THE RESUME
Groce looked all but fired as Illinois stumbled to a 4-9 start in the Big Ten that included a pair of losses to Penn State. In a remarkable turnaround, the Illini won five of their next six, highlighted by a sweep of rival Northwestern, to push into most projected NCAA tourmanent fields.
Then, in the regular-season finale, they lost to Rutgers. They are no longer projected to make the tournament and may very well need two wins this weekend to work their way back in.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
The Illini finished 11th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. They take care of the ball; otherwise, they don't do anything particularly well on that end of the floor. They finished eighth in both two- and three-point percentage and 12th at the free-throw line. The first game was both an unusually hot shooting game and an unusually good offensive rebounding game for them.
Their defense is a bit better, right around average in the conference. They've had trouble preventing good looks on the interior and they allow a relatively high rate of three-point attempts. Other than rebounding, they're mediocre to bad in most defensive stats.
THE KEYS
Five out, attack. Illinois has been leaning hard on Maverick Morgan at center lately, and he's a big Michigan can exploit with their five-out, spread-and-shred offense. The Illini also did a poor job of boxing out when DJ Wilson crashed the offensive glass from the perimeter. On offense, Michigan just has to keep doing what they've been doing.
Manage minutes. If he can afford to do so, Beilein should keep an eye on Friday's potential matchup with Purdue while managing the rotation. Building a comfortable lead so the most critical players—especially Moe Wagner—can get a little more leisure time than usual before a back-to-back against a rested Boilermakers squad certainly wouldn't hurt M's chances of making a run.
Contain Kipper Nichols. Michigan is 1-0 against Illinois when they manage to do this.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
I expect Michigan to contain Kipper Nichols.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Quinn on Michigan's defensive surge:
It's been, quite stunningly, one of the better defenses in the Big Ten since the start of February.
There are some schematic reasons. The Wolverines have extended the defense and are guarding farther from the basket. It makes them more susceptible to dribble penetration, but anything is better than the unchecked shooting range that existed previously.
The extended defense is symbolized by Walton, way out past the 3-point line, picking up those opposing point guards as they cross over halfcourt. In the past, teams cruised into the offensive end and went into their set unimpeded. Now, the Wolverines are at least offering some resistance. It stutters the opposing offense and uses a chunk of the shot clock.
If you listen to the podcast, you may recognize that as an adjustment Brian has wanted Beilein to make for a while. Especially in the 30-second shot clock era, draining 8-10 seconds off the clock up front can really limit what the opponent can run on a single possession. The soft press doesn't drain your defenders in the way a Havoc-like system does, either. This is a welcome development.
but related to Illinois' chances of making the tourney: Syracuse just lost to go 18-14 and 10-8 in the ACC. They'll be a very interesting case. Horrible RPI and loss total but a lot of quality wins. 9-11 against RPI top 100 is better than a lot of other bubble teams. Also, you wonder if their run to the final four as an iffy 10 seed last year impacts the committee.
But possibly a worse resume than Illinois if Illinois can beat us. They have an opening.
Hell yeah we've got a better than than most! Nobody's got a better than than or has it better than than us!
Looks like Michigan's tempo-free numbers haven't been updated to reflect the Nebraska game. Should be 115.6 for offense and 107.2 for defense according to Kenpom.
Let's grab our pocket protectors and Franklin planners. Get up in there.
I worked at a big consultancy (whose name I won't mention) years ago when Franklin Planners were all the rage. Every dork in the company carried those bulky POSs to every meeting and made a big show of checking their appointments, etc. This was just before PDAs became widespread.
IIRC, the Franklin Planner folks would provide organizational workplace seminars so that you would continue to buy their gear. It was some serious Dilbert/Office Space stuff.
Thank God the plane incident wasn't worse.
I wouldn't feel the slightest regret for lighting a fire under Walton. Illinois annihilated "white collar" Michigan in the first matchup and if you're a competitive fellow where's the fun in that? Illinois lost the rematch but he's got nothing to apologize for to his team or Illini fans just because Michigan came ready to play. He made the comment, but Walton took it to heart.
If there's anything for Illinois to be sour about it's losing to Rutgers, which I'm sure they are, but Michigan didn't have anything to do with that.
My pick. Michigan vs Maryland in the final. PSU upsets MSU for good measure
Any update to the travel situation?
A bus drive, through areas affected by wind could take over 10 hours -- easy. You're dealing with power lines down, rush hour traffic, winds buffeting your high profile vehicle...it would be a mess and a real slog.
Do your walk thrus / final game prep at the Ypsi Marriott in a ballroom tonight. Then, take a flight tomorrow at around 7am (when the winds are projected to be 7 mph), get to DC by 8:30am, get on a bus, and you're at the Verizon Center by about 9:30am-10am. That's plenty of time to be ready for a game at 12pm.
It's not ideal, but eminently doable.
If the Big Ten has even a tiny shred of integrity, it will postpone the game.
So I assume we'll tip off at noon.
to switch us with the later game in the session at the very least. The TV announcers and crew are the same, the tickets are the same.
would not be good.
Then change that game, too.
My standard answer is usually yeah they (Illinois) could win, if the Michigan plane goes down. That will no longer be my answer anymore, ever.
needs to be RESCHEDULED its the RIGHT thing to do
drawing the 8 seed, we now have to get up at god knows what time just to get the arena in time to play the game, nevermind actually having a normal morning of warm up and rest. I'm glad everyone is ok, but man does this put us behind the 8 ball.
What a fucking joke. The Big Ten's stupid lack of options for travel procedure totally fucks us.
What else is new. Smh.
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