Grading Coach Harbaugh's First Two Seasons at Michigan
I know that the title and timing of this diary imply a hot-take. I truly don't mean for that to be the case. My intent here is to rationally weigh the pros and cons of the last two seasons in attempt to grade Harbaugh's tenure thus far.
2015
The Good:
- Immediately turned around a losing culture. Brought fight into a team coming off a 5-7 season, reignited the passion of the fanbase and righted the national perception of Michigan Football.
- The record overall; to double from 5 wins to 10 wins in one year is an INCREDIBLE coaching job.
- Dominating wins against three 9+ win teams in Florida, BYU and Northwestern. (I know that these teams were only fringe Top 25, but these were the types of teams that the only way Hoke could win would be in nailbiters).
- First road win in a hostile environment in 5 years, in a game we controlled (at Penn State in their White Out; last win in a non Northwestern/Indiana/Illinois-esque environment was Notre Dame in 2010).
- First bowl victory in 4 years.
- Overall, continuous player improvement and development throughout the season, something unseen in the previous decade of Michigan football.
- No "bad losses" to teams that were inferior to us (in terms of either record or overall capability).
The Bad:
- The Michigan State tragedy. Even though we had ample chances to be up by more than one score before the punt occurred, not sure that I can hold this against Harbaugh. MSU was a Top 10 team in 2015 that went on to win the Big Ten; while it will never not be excruciating that we lost, losing by 4 points on the biggest fluke in decades of football to a strong opponent can't be looked at too harshly. Especially with a team that was 5-7 the year before.
- Ohio State...yeah, this one there is no excuse for. It's not that we lost, it's how we lost. A beatdown of historic caliber, at home in The Big House. No Michigan team had lost that badly against OSU in Ann Arbor in more than half a century. And before people come to crucify DJ Durkin, the offense only scored 10 non-garbage time points. That would never be enough to beat Urban Meyer, even if DJ called a perfect game on the other side of the ball.
2015 Grade: A- (overall, incredible coaching job, but the magnitude of failure against the Buckeyes, especially at home, disqualifies a pure 'A' grade in my book)
2016
The Good:
- In the thick of contention for championships until the bitter end of the regular season; something no Michigan team had done in 10 years (since 2006).
- Three wins over Top 15 teams, one in absolutely dominating fashion (Wisconsin, Penn State, Colorado).
- Undefeated 8-0 record in The Big House, with 7 of the 8 victories being by more than one score and the other a game we statistically dominated. This was the first undefeated home record in 4 years (2012).
- Defeating Michigan State in East Lansing. Yes, the Spartans were trash this year, but winning a rivalry game on the road, comfortably, is an accomplishment; especially being the first win there in 9 years (2007) against a coach that has had our number.
The Bad:
- Huge waste of potential. Michigan had the most experienced team in the Big Ten, two of our three "tough road games" featured teams significantly and unexpectedly worse than they were a year prior, Ohio State had the youngest team Urban will have for a while and still we could not get over the hump and win a conference (or division) title.
- Harbaugh's first loss to an inferior team, at Iowa. Michigan was outcoached, outplayed and out-toughed by a team with significantly less talent (and a significantly lower paid coaching staff) than we do in a game that, with a win, likely would have delivered us into the playoff.
- Losing to Ohio State...again. Look, we got fucked over by the refs in a game that was close enough that bad calls made the difference. However, it shouldn't have been close enough for the refs to help them win. We had a senior team against a team full of sophomores and lost, for the billionth time in a row. At some point we have to win The Game, doesn't matter what the excuses are. Harbaugh joins Rich Rod as the only coach in history to start with back to back losses to the Buckeyes.
- Fourth quarter collapses become a trend. All three of our losses this were games in which we led in the final two minutes of regulation. Add in MSU 2015 and 2/3rds of Harbaugh's losses at UM have us losing a lead in the final minutes of regulation. This is a disturbing trend and the sample size is becoming large enough to be worrisome.
- Continual development was either non apparent or simply did not exist. I don't think anyone would say that this team was better in November than they were in September (wins/losses and opponents aside).
- Record stagnation. I understand that 10 wins does not constitute a bad season in any absolute terms. But given the potential, this team should've finished better than 10-3, the same record they had in 2015.
2016 Grade: B- (As much as it pains me, I can't go higher than this. No matter the margin, losing 3 out of your last 4 games is brutal).
Overall Grade: B+
I want to, but I can't give Harbaugh a grade in the A range due to the season that just finished. A 10-3 record in the context of 2015 was a great success, but a 10-3 record in the context of 2016 is a failure. If I included off field stuff (recruiting, academics, etc.) it'd be enough for an A-, but I want to focus on results from the playing field here.
I still believe in this staff and the direction we're going 110%. I just think it will take us a little longer to get there than we hoped.
To those who suffered through reading this diary (which I'm sure has plentiful typos, I am much too tired to proof-read), what do you think? How would you grade Harbaugh's tenure so far in its very young state? Did I miss any good or bad things in either season?
Forever and always, GO BLUE!
December 31st, 2016 at 5:28 PM ^
On the one hand we struggled at the end of the year. We also struggled against every decent defensive team. And, we struggled on the road. The offensive line was not great. Our top offensive playmaker was a TE. But, the defense was pretty danged good, and definately good enough to win a NC if we had a better offense.
Now, Hoke's teams have had trouble winning late in the season (as did RR's for that matter) and had trouble on the road. These are those same guys. I'm not sure why we struggle on the road so much, but I get the feeling it's the combination of the offensive line and QB play that is not consistent enough, and that has been the case for the better par of a decade. Harbaugh was able to get a pretty consistent offensive out of not a lot of talented playmakers, not a great o-line, and trying to create a QB out of not much in the cupboard. With what he was given he did pretty well IMO.
From my perspective we were overrated. OSU is a better team and we were able to play with them due to our defense and good matchups. But, OSU I think can play with a lot of other top teams across the nation that we won't match up with as well. Beyond OSU, I'm not sure who else that was really a talented team that we played. FSU seemed a lot faster and more athletic than us. That being said we still could have beaten them, especially if we had Peppers. But, just looking at talent, they were clearly the more talented team and had an easier time making plays. We appeared to have to work harder for our yards.
So, what does that mean going forward? I think Harbaugh is recruiting well. That will take a while to turn into results on the field, especially on the o-line. Personally, I'm not at all worried about the defense. But, the offense does concern me a bit. I know Harbaugh has been successful everywhere and had his Stanford teams doing great and beating USC and Oregon. But, neither of them were OSU and I'm not sure looking down south I can yet envision getting over that hump. Until we can get over that hump we all know we will never be happy. I hope that eventually we will get there, but it's hard to see next year. Then, the year after that we have to travel to Columbus again. Overall, it's way better than Hoke or RR, but will we win a B1G championship again? I'll take 10 over 5-8 wins, but I can't help but want more.
December 31st, 2016 at 9:24 PM ^
Agreed with the majority of your post. Be careful round these parts. Some people can't handle the truth and get butthurt.
December 31st, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^
December 31st, 2016 at 8:16 PM ^
Why is his post bad?
December 31st, 2016 at 9:26 PM ^
Because when people read stuff they don't like or agree with they tend to get butthurt. Not everyone is a delusional "yes" fan who only looks at the positives and pretend like the negatives don't exist.
December 31st, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^
December 31st, 2016 at 9:23 PM ^
2015: B+. Wasn't expecting much and was pleasantly surprised at 10 wins.
2016: C-. Was expecting more and saw no improvement.
Here's looking forward to 2017.
December 31st, 2016 at 9:53 PM ^
I think B+ for both ... why ....
2015: Made them competative right away. Hired really good coaches to get the job done.
Did a good job with the players that were there. 10 wins!
2016: Beat MSU in the 2nd season. Was competative with OSU in a game we easily could of been the winner. The only bummer for me was the Iowa loss.
The guy has done a great job in both season. 10 wins is REALLY good in college football.
He has been a hell of a recruiter and we are getting top tallent now back to back years.
When I look at this team here and where it is heading here is how I see it -
1. In year 3 we will really start to see "his" players in there playing.
2. He didn't have much to work with, with both the O-line and QB and it is our glaring weak point the past 2 years. Speight is a good dude but he is just average as is the O-line play.
3. He is getting the players he and we need to be elite and not just average or good. People like Evans and McDoom and Peters and Bush and Gary and ...... etc etc
We are in a good place guys .... we lost that bowl game but again we were competative the entire game and lets be honest .... FSU is not powder puff. They are a good and competative program. We were without 2 stars on both sides of the ball and we were still with them. Now imagine both the OSU game and the FSU game with a QB that can slide .. move ... run and throw ... poof .... we win ... its that simple. It's just a little of this and that and we win those games we lost.
Our D ... is just .. well .... great. Simple as that. Our LB core was the weak link IMO but next year with Bush and others I really think you will see a similar performance with our D being excellent again year after year.
If we can get even a small improvement in the O-line it will make a big difference.
I personally also feel Peters WILL be our starting QB by at least game 3 ... I 100% believe this is going to happen.
Anytime you can win 10 games its a good year. I know we all want more and more and more ... but sheeeeeeesh ... even good teams have really bad games and have fluke losses etc. Going undefeated etc etc is not easy.
I am extremely happy with Harbaugh and feel his is really great at both finding excellent coaches and finding hidden gems of talent and getting the top recruits to come to our team.
I for one .... am very happy with him and the current coaching staff. Good things are to come and feel it's only going to get better. With that said though .... losses happen and some of them really suck but we have the right guy and Michigan has done a 180 from the moment he stepped on campus to coach our team. The ship is on the right course!
2017 !!!!! Peters ..... back to pass .....deep pass down the sideline ........ touchdown .. McDoooooooooooooom !
January 1st, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 8:04 PM ^
always the bridesmaid and never the bride...will we ever WIN a BIG GAME? just heartbreak and dissapointment and collapsing in ever way possiible to LOSE Big Games..Its a very disturbinhg trend under Harbaugh
January 1st, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^
January 5th, 2017 at 6:41 AM ^
At one point, some luck will be involved in games, your qb is gonna be injured, the refs will be homers for your rival. Hoping our team gets betters is the only thing we can do
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:50 PM ^
Team 137 dominated most of its competition. Team 137 beat both teams in the B1G championship game. It was 2 plays away (in the regular season) from being undefeated.
Shit happens. It does not mean that Harbaugh is a "B" coach. Harbaugh is an absolutely fantastic coach.
All of the whining by self-important, entitled, and delusional "fans" makes me sad.
January 3rd, 2017 at 8:21 AM ^
Nobody's saying he is a 'B' coach -- we're saying he had a B season and we're looking forward to improvement when his results revert to the mean.
January 3rd, 2017 at 2:35 AM ^
All these people in this thread trying to rationally argue with the OP about why he's wrong ... look, if someone can look at what Harbaugh has done at Michigan in the last 2 years and go "B+", this is a person who cannot be reasoned with. A++, 10/10, would buy again.
January 3rd, 2017 at 8:19 AM ^
Nobody's arguing he was anything short of the perfect hire or that we could ever consider letting go of him. But I'm certain Harbaugh himself would agree that 3 losses in his second season is at best a B- for him. Doesn't mean he didn't do his best job, but sometimes the smartest and most hard-working students get less than excellent results.
If you give him an A++, I feel that's insulting to Harbaugh. That means you wouldn't expect him to do better than falling short of the conference title! I'm certain better seasons are to come, and if that's the case, you simply can't give him an A+ right now.
January 3rd, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^
I think you're confusing grading Harbaugh as a coach vs. grading the 2016 season. If you think 10-3, losing out on the division (and therefore conference title), losing a bowl game, losing 3 of the last 4, another loss to OSU, etc. is all A++ then what you're essentially conceding is that it doesn't get any better than that.
Not only do I disagree with that, but I think Harbaugh would take offense to suggest that the 2016 result is going to be the pinnacle of his achievements at Michigan.
Harbaugh is a very good coach who had a disappointing season. It happens.
January 4th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
Back to this year, the only disappointment from a coaching perspective is the Iowa game. Even in that game a questionable call on the punt return was a difference maker
Hitting the quick slant in the OSU game would have sealed the win.
Yes, the team was outplayed by FSU, but the delayed return determined that game
Overall, a good year of coaching. Looking forward to next year and in particular - 2018.
January 5th, 2017 at 6:39 AM ^
Michigan's failure to win the big games caused this grade; no team will ever win a championship by being on the wrong side of these 14-13 and 30-27 games. A lot of other teams were a couple plays from a natty, but which ones actually made the plays??
January 3rd, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^
But he was 2 plays from being 12-0 this year with an average line on its best day and a 1st year starter qb. Yes he had an elite defense. It's football, stuff happens. 2 plays are the difference between B- and A+. I love Harbaugh.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:47 AM ^
Nick Saban first two years at Alabama
7-6 (bowl win)
12-2 (bowl loss)
Harbaugh first two years at Michigan
10-3 (bowl win)
10-3 (bowl loss)
The trajectory will be fine...
January 5th, 2017 at 6:37 AM ^
will beat out Saban as he is far younger and will win about 6-7 championships in his lifetime
January 5th, 2017 at 6:36 AM ^
in these two years has been incredible. UM is now in the race for every possible recruit they desire, whichever his rank. We could potentially land back-to-back #1 prospects and b2b top 6 classes which is great for the 2017-2018-2019 season. I expect Harbaugh to bring the first of many championships to AA in the next 3 years
January 5th, 2017 at 7:09 AM ^
I won't argue Hoke's recruits were bad. However, I can argue they were woefully undercoached by a staff at a program reknowned for being excellent teachers of the game. I cannot ignore the face this team was obviously and tremendously better starting with the first game under his tenure, albeit a loss to a solid UT teams. That is immediate and positive change. The great ones accomplish that. Based simply on television viewing, I knew we would not be emarrassed going forward unless we ran up against a team far superior, talent wise. The win over Fl, punctuated the improvement gained throughout the course of the season.
Year two, he had them at peak performance from Game One, and Brown's influence was immediate and obvious as well. Hurt like Hell that we lost 75% of our final four games but I have so many ? in regard to Speight's health. There was further concern on my part in what appeared to be a regression on the part of the receivers, i.e., inability to gain separation as in year one. I thought Peppers could have been better utlized on offense when it became apparent to us and the opposition both what he was going to do. IA we laid a complete egg D was gashed early, O underperformed, obviously, After Stribling'a pick, it was clear we were still minus an OL that could simply impose its will and we still hadn't found our money back.
We proved we were on par with OSU, with an understanding they were very young but still, Year 2 vs. the second finest collection of fb talent in cfb made a statement. Even given the tremendous amount of talent we''re losing, I believe we will field another strong club These two years experience by those waiting their turn will prove, imo, that we really do have one of the country's best staffs. Great job Coach
January 5th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
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January 6th, 2017 at 8:33 AM ^
I thiink I will withhold judgement for a couple more years. Wins over rivals are important and are the result of consistant, excellent recruiting and coaching. For example, take the current turnover situation on the OL and DL. After a few more years I would expect the drop off due to graduation at any given position to be much less from year to year. Yes, there is always some but I expect Michigan to compete for and win championships every year, not just years when the experience and talent on the depth chart align and are favorable.. Michigan is not there yet but they are without a doubt headed in the right direction.
Go Blue!
January 7th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
2015: A (considering expectations)
2016: B+ (considering expectations)
Overall: A- (low side)
No win over OSU, no divison/conference title
Last back to back 10 win seasons: 2002-2003*
*Overtook ND for winningest percentage
January 7th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
So much of our analysis depends on expectations. Fancystats and analysts all told us that the 2016 team was a CFP contender before the first kick of the season. The play on the field ended up showing that, while highly skilled and dangerous, this team was not quite able to hang with their most talented peers.
I'm disappointed that things didn't go our way, but watching that offense struggle was enough to keep me from feeling that we "wasted" any opportunity any more than any game is a potential win opportunity until it isn't. I think an A grade in coaching would require that we not lose 3 games at the end of the season regardless of expectations.
Think about next year's schedule and expectations. There seems to be a widely held belief that we will take a step back next year as our experience graduates and heads to the NFL and the youth movement begins. This has lots of folks worrying about 4 or more losses (again comparing to this year). When I look at the scheule, though, I still see only four games that look tough (Florida, Penn St., Wisc, and OSU) and even those seem like coin flips.
I guess what I'm saying is, if we go 10-3 next year, with lower expectations, is that an A grade or will people be getting frustrated that the Harbaugh machine isn't progressing?
January 11th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
Stars have to align to win a national championship. Clemson looked very beatable against Va Tech in their conference championship. They whooped OSU and brought it against one of the most talented teams ever in 2016 Alabama.
I like the flywheel analogy mentioned above. OSU had it going. Michigan was at a dead stop since 2008. Even in Hoke's 11-1 season we did not look good in a lot of games. People love Denard because he made up for a very strange offense despite the crazy numbers.
2015--
Utah was tough but that was a very good team.
MSU was very good and we should have beat them.
OSU was historically good and what are you going to do. That game sucked.
2016--
Iowa--should have beat them. A couple of missed catches and at some point our QB got hurt.
OSU--game was literally stolen. Any number of correctly called calls and the game was over. Plus we had a hurt QB.
FSU--put Jabrill in and we win. FSU was a good team.
I think the coaching has been an A. We were a top ten team this year and a play away from the CFP. Other than perhaps Iowa, I don't see how you can ding Harbaugh at all. Results may not have been 100% but I think you'd be challenged to find many actual coaching mistakes.
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