October 4th, 2016 at 9:59 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 10:39 PM ^
-Houston loses.
-At least two P5 conference champion have 2 losses. Preferably more, but at this point, the only conference that may happen in is the Big XII. And they're pretty much already out.
-Louisville may need to lose again. They've already made a great case for being included if the committee were to consider adding a non-champion with the Clemson game.
-Both Michigan and OSU would have to run roughshod over the rest of the Big Ten. Like winning by 40 points a game each. And then they'd have to play each other wire to wire, pound for pound, in a very evenly matched game, that comes down to the final seconds, decided by a field goal or less, where even the most homer-rific of fans have to admit that whoever won, it could've just as easily gone the other way.
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October 4th, 2016 at 10:48 PM ^
if that scenario holds true, these teams are ahead of us I think..
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson (I think they jump 1-loss M even if they drop a game and can win the ACC)
3. 1-loss or undefeated SEC Champion
4. Undefeated Washington
5. Houston/Louisville winner (Houston undefeated or 1-loss Louisville)
This means we need two of the above to not happen. I think those first 3 will hold, meaning we need Washington to lose and hope that Houston/Louisville isn't the national quarterfinal game that I'm thinking it is. Baylor could run the table, but I think the CFPC puts 1-loss M over Baylor because of Baylor's possibility to have ZERO wins over top-25 teams.
October 5th, 2016 at 12:59 AM ^
until enough upsets occur in the conference championships such that one-hit-wonder/backdoor champions prevent the existence of four or more strong champions.
Say last year that both USC and Florida had won their conference championship games. I think nearly everybody could agree with strong confidence that USC and Florida were not one of the top 4 teams in the country. So it would have been necessary for the committee to chose a non-champion.
Some might point to the Committee ranking Ohio State #5 over #6 Stanford. But those would be missing what the politically adept Committee did there. #5 vs #6 is window dressing. But what what better way to take the air out of the sails of those who would claim that Stanford should have been one of the four due to their SOS than to stick them behind Ohio State and silence most of the would-be complainers right there?
Muttley sees what the Committee did there.