Vegas opens with us as favorites at Sparty

Submitted by superstringer on

Vegas just posted odds on the top CFB games of the year, plus the opening weekend.  One of the games is in EL:  We are -2 @ MSU.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/15532945/alabama-crimson-tide-oklah…

B1G generally not getting love in these big games, although not a surprise.  LSU favored at Lambeau over the Badgers; and OSU a dog to Oklahoma, but considering how the Buckeyes have to reload, you'd expect that.

I get the feelnig these early lines are for the public, and the heavy money won't come in until closer to the season?  Like, what if some team's coach mocks his first-week (and vastly superior) opponent on Twitter.... not that that ever happens.

LSAClassOf2000

May 13th, 2016 at 11:16 PM ^

The early lines always seemed like they were meant purely for public speculation, so I tend to agree with the OP in that respect. I tend to find the lines which get published towards the end of the summer, usually about two weeks or so before the season starts, to be far more interesting.

Of course, I hope we are indeed favorites when the game week lines come out - if you had to ask me right now, based on zero real data and 100% real speculation, I could buy a close line either way in this game because it makes the most sense based on last year, among other things.

WolverineinSB

May 13th, 2016 at 11:56 PM ^

When I was in Vegas a couple weeks ago betting had Michigan as the 5-1 favorite to win the natty so this doesn't surprise me that they would play to that to get money in.



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johnthesavage

May 14th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^

This is just one casino I've never heard of. It's marketing, and obviously it worked at that level, but it's also a risk for the house. I don't know how many of these future lines they set, all by themselves, but that's a tough job and they probably made some mistakes. But they can avoid significant risk by limiting the amount of action they'll actually take on these lines, which they probably would do if you tried to exploit them.

johnthesavage

May 14th, 2016 at 1:22 AM ^

This is stupid. "Vegas" doesn't release lines this early. This comes from some random no-name casino that is basically trolling for free advertising. Effective.

I Want To Believe

May 14th, 2016 at 5:34 AM ^

If this line is true, I would jump on it right now. MSU can only beat teams when they win the battle in the trenches. There is no way Sparty beats is in the trenches this year. As long as we have a QB good enough to consistently move the ball, we will beat MSU by at least 7 or more.

Padog

May 14th, 2016 at 7:49 AM ^

I don't know, I think our O-Line will wash with their D-Line, the question is the other side of the ball. Last year they had to deal with a lot of injuries and we were healthy when we played them (Except Ojemudia). If I recall they didn't run the ball against us particularly well, so they probably won't this year. The big thing is that they won't have Burbridge bailing Cook out on those back shoulder throws. O'Connor won't be as good as cook and they don't have a receiver that can beat Lewis.



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flashOverride

May 14th, 2016 at 8:16 AM ^

I agree O'Connor likely won't be as good as Cook, but they'll find a WR who wasn't very heralded before, they always seem to. Yes, Burbridge was a blue-chip recruit, but he wasn't really on the radar much his first few years in EL, so I consider him unheralded relative to how his final year went. Lippett as well. 

That said, I think our DL will crush their OL, barring ours being a M*A*S*H unit.

Bodogblog

May 14th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^

I think Conklin was back for that game last year.  And remember the officiating was really bad in last year's game. 

 

The risk is on the Sparty side.  Our DL is deep and secondary very good, if their OL has some injuries they could be pretty bad.  They need to find left tackle as it is. 

Flip side we have thin OL, a couple injuries there and we could really struggle.  But the same on their DL.  QB is a question for both, but Michigan much better at WR, a bit better at TE. 

I'd say best outcome for them is a defensive struggle where key plays get them a win.  I agree even if their QB plays well and OL is healthy, they'll have difficulty moving the ball consistently.  But I can see a Michigan team with a QB playing well, an OL that's providing some space, and the WRs/Butt really taking over against their DBs.  It's time for our good players to step up and dominate this game.  Chesson and Darboh should be ready to beat single coverage and take some jump balls. 

Bodogblog

May 16th, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^

It's something that almost everyone besides Michigan fans has forgotten about though.  Remove that blocked punt, even up the officiating, and M could win that game by a TD going away.  That would really have changed the perception of the game, and in turn next year's game.  The line quoted here probably relies quite a bit on what happened last year, and so will the betting public.  But I doubt most of them will consider the officiating.  

Another item that gets included in the risk on the Sparty end. 

michiganfanforlife

May 14th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^

I really like how our schedule works out this year. We get plenty of time to ramp up our offense with whoever wins the QB spot. By the time MSU is on tap we will rip off their heads and skull fuck them

BlueHills

May 14th, 2016 at 2:22 PM ^

If our guys plays to their potential the way they did against Florida, it'll be hard to beat Michigan.

But we're on the road against a team that has proven itself to be well-coached year after frickin' year, in spite of the hubris and trash-talk.

It's no gimme.

But I think we'll come out with a win in a close game.