Vegas opens with us as favorites at Sparty
Vegas just posted odds on the top CFB games of the year, plus the opening weekend. One of the games is in EL: We are -2 @ MSU.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/15532945/alabama-crimson-tide-oklah…
B1G generally not getting love in these big games, although not a surprise. LSU favored at Lambeau over the Badgers; and OSU a dog to Oklahoma, but considering how the Buckeyes have to reload, you'd expect that.
I get the feelnig these early lines are for the public, and the heavy money won't come in until closer to the season? Like, what if some team's coach mocks his first-week (and vastly superior) opponent on Twitter.... not that that ever happens.
The early lines always seemed like they were meant purely for public speculation, so I tend to agree with the OP in that respect. I tend to find the lines which get published towards the end of the summer, usually about two weeks or so before the season starts, to be far more interesting.
Of course, I hope we are indeed favorites when the game week lines come out - if you had to ask me right now, based on zero real data and 100% real speculation, I could buy a close line either way in this game because it makes the most sense based on last year, among other things.
To talk betting lines for the MSU and OSU games when we're barely into May, but I still love this stuff.
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This is just one casino I've never heard of. It's marketing, and obviously it worked at that level, but it's also a risk for the house. I don't know how many of these future lines they set, all by themselves, but that's a tough job and they probably made some mistakes. But they can avoid significant risk by limiting the amount of action they'll actually take on these lines, which they probably would do if you tried to exploit them.
This is stupid. "Vegas" doesn't release lines this early. This comes from some random no-name casino that is basically trolling for free advertising. Effective.
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I agree O'Connor likely won't be as good as Cook, but they'll find a WR who wasn't very heralded before, they always seem to. Yes, Burbridge was a blue-chip recruit, but he wasn't really on the radar much his first few years in EL, so I consider him unheralded relative to how his final year went. Lippett as well.
That said, I think our DL will crush their OL, barring ours being a M*A*S*H unit.
I think Conklin was back for that game last year. And remember the officiating was really bad in last year's game.
The risk is on the Sparty side. Our DL is deep and secondary very good, if their OL has some injuries they could be pretty bad. They need to find left tackle as it is.
Flip side we have thin OL, a couple injuries there and we could really struggle. But the same on their DL. QB is a question for both, but Michigan much better at WR, a bit better at TE.
I'd say best outcome for them is a defensive struggle where key plays get them a win. I agree even if their QB plays well and OL is healthy, they'll have difficulty moving the ball consistently. But I can see a Michigan team with a QB playing well, an OL that's providing some space, and the WRs/Butt really taking over against their DBs. It's time for our good players to step up and dominate this game. Chesson and Darboh should be ready to beat single coverage and take some jump balls.
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It's something that almost everyone besides Michigan fans has forgotten about though. Remove that blocked punt, even up the officiating, and M could win that game by a TD going away. That would really have changed the perception of the game, and in turn next year's game. The line quoted here probably relies quite a bit on what happened last year, and so will the betting public. But I doubt most of them will consider the officiating.
Another item that gets included in the risk on the Sparty end.
That line is going to be 7 by the game.
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It's going to be a long time before Sparty is a favorite in this game again. New world now.
If our guys plays to their potential the way they did against Florida, it'll be hard to beat Michigan.
But we're on the road against a team that has proven itself to be well-coached year after frickin' year, in spite of the hubris and trash-talk.
It's no gimme.
But I think we'll come out with a win in a close game.