SEARCHBITS XIII: A COMPETITOR FOR CHEESE Comment Count

Brian

INSIDER BITS TODAY: MEH. Holding pattern time. I don't have anything specific to tell you that isn't out there already, just continued opinion that Harbaugh is very much in play and Michigan is still focused on him, with everyone else Plan B. I think we might see some movement over the weekend or early next week, especially if the 49ers are officially eliminated from the playoffs (a 49ers loss and Lions win will make it 100%).

Expect Michigan to start reaching out to potential replacements in earnest soon; that won't mean that Harbaugh's definitively out, it'll mean that he hasn't definitely said yes. Harbaugh won't have a truly clear picture of his options until the NFL season is over. He does not know what he wants to do now.

If Michigan doesn't get deeply involved with a short list over the next couple weeks that's a good sign.

Sep 15, 2012; Madison, WI, USA;  Utah State Aggies head coach Gary Andersen (left) and Wisconsin Badgers head coach Bret Bielema (right) talk during warm-ups prior to their game at Camp Randall Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

WE THOUGHT THIS WAS ASHLEY MADISON DOT COM, NOT MADISON, WISCONSIN. SEEYA.

BARRY ALVAREZ MUST SMELL LIKE ROTEL THAT'S BEEN IN THE FRIDGE SINCE THE BIG TEN WAS RELEVANT. Oregon State's shock hire of Gary Andersen after just two years—two quite successful years—at Wisconsin moves a coaching opening much closer to Michigan in both geography and prestige. Well… probably, as far as the latter goes. Wisconsin's now had coaches bug out for the post-Petrino wasteland at Arkansas and the 10th best job in the Pac-12*. I can't see that happening at Michigan.

I don't buy most of the explanations out there for Andersen's departure. Wisconsin doesn't pay its assistants like a program with their success level would be expected to, but Oregon State doesn't either. Family reasons cited by Alvarez are transparent bunk. Everyone's talking about academic issues, which I guess could be jarring as you move from Utah State, but Wisconsin's done just fine with whatever standards they've had forever. It kind of looks like Alvarez is a Brandon-esque figure hovering over his coaches. In his defense, he was a really successful football coach instead of a guy who sold cardboard disks purporting to be pizza.

Will Wisconsin's search impact Michigan? It's doubtful but not outlandishly so. After getting burned by consecutive outsiders, Wisconsin may prefer a Wisconsin Man and go for Pitt HC Paul Chryst, NC State HC Dave Doeren or Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell. If they eschew those options they might promote DC Dave Aranda, who had very shiny stats before OSU bombed them, or go with a mid-level HC not currently on Michigan's radar. It's probable that Wisconsin finds a guy without pinging anyone Michigan would ask after.

Any impact would come if both teams end up hunting coordinators, and even then it seems like the teams would split the two obvious Big Ten candidates and be happy with it. Pat Narduzzi makes more sense than Tom Herman for the Badgers: Wisconsin knows what it is on offense and wouldn't want to change it. Herman makes more sense for M because they need offensive repairs desperately.

BUT SERIOUSLY. Wisconsin should hire Bo Pelini.

NO SERIOUSLY. I'm serious. This is not just for the epic trolling it would set up.

SERIOUSLY. Seriously.

*[Colorado and WSU are worse. Probably.]

ONE OTHER POSSIBLE EFFECT. Herman and Aranda were in fact teammates at Cal Lutheran back in the day. If M does end up going for Herman and Aranda is cut loose at Wisconsin that would be an obvious option for DC.

ca07ecdab035e7290b1c2e2d3a1644ee[1]DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 16: Jim Harbaugh head coach of the San Francisco 49ers argues with Jim Schwartz of the Detroit Lions during the NFL game at Ford Field on October 16, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

never not funny

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH. Tim Kawakami had an interesting piece on parallels between the Harbaugh-49ers rift and that between Mark Jackson and the Golden State Warriors, a post that also roped in Chris Mullin. This bit is the most directly applicable to you:

Harbaugh will not talk about the strife. Not publicly or–I believe–privately.

He tried to deny that there were any true tensions this off-season, because that’s his usual tactic, but as the stories have piled up starting from the early weeks of the regular season, Harbaugh has just generally refused to comment on the meaning of all this–and he won’t deny the possibility that management is doing it, either.

He’s not doing this as a zen practice, Harbaugh is doing this because he’s hunkered down, fighting through every day, and if management wants to conduct a campaign against him, that’s only going to sharpen his wits for the next move (while staying silent about what it might be).

Another similarity: Mullin naturally took the quiet high road because he knew he’d succeed elsewhere. I guarantee you that’s what Harbaugh feels now. …

This is all–I firmly believe–coming from 49ers management.

We know Harbaugh is talking a bit privately, but even then he plays his cards very close to the vest. He gave Charles Woodson a press conference answer when they talked…

"I spoke to him briefly, just said 'what's up,' and I almost started to get into the conversation but he kind of game me the same line he gave everybody at his press conference," Woodson said Tuesday on The Rich Eisen Show. "The well-being of his team and the well-being of his family. That was about as far into it as we were going to get."

…(since that press conference answer made the press, that was a good move). Meanwhile he's refusing to mention anything other than the next game, and he was relatively circumspect with the former M players he watched the OSU game with. I've gotten reports that he is cagey with everyone, with small cracks that may let people in on his intentions. A few people who've known him forever get Harbaugh's unvarnished thoughts—and even they don't know what he'll do.

This would explain a great deal of the disconnect between NFL reporters and the Michigan guys. Everything the NFL guys get is coming from management types who have a vested interest in Harbaugh staying in the NFL, either because they want him or want to trade him. Guys who talk to him personally get a different take.

BUT NOT CHARLES. Woodson continued:

"The way it sounds to me there's not even that one in a million," he added. "It doesn't sound too good to me.

"I guess you do have a slight chance. But man. It ain't looking good."

This is still not the opinion of people who have spent a lot of time canvassing all available information. Yikes all the same.

ON ASSISTANT SALARIES. USA Today published a database of assistant salaries, which promises to be more useful than the head coach listings. Head coaches have erratic, large bonuses that cause big swings. Those kinds of things are much rarer with assistants.

Michigan was 9th in overall assistant compensation with a relatively unbalanced structure: both coordinators were 800k+, recruiting coordinator Jeff Hecklinski was just under 300k, and everyone else around 240k. LSU was #1 in overall compensation with both coordinators at 1.3 million and their lowest-paid dude at 310.

M is almost two million dollars behind LSU in annual compensation(!). They're right on par with OSU, FWIW. Mississippi State is a million dollars back of M, on par with Colorado, Maryland, Rutgers… and Wisconsin.

Upshot: unless there's a big shift Michigan is going to be able to pay on par with everyone else. There's enough money to pay a big time coordinator for the other side of the ball if M goes with a Narduzzi/Herman type.

PLAN B. Here's a weird-ass name I don't fully believe but know they're kicking around at some level inside the department: Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are currently at the top of the AFC North but Lewis has been on precarious ground for a while now—he got a one-year extension just before this season and would likely have to be extended again. The Bengals have been on the verge of a change there for a long time. Lewis comes with all the usual NFL hangups but at his age (57) he would likely be retiring at a hypothetical college job.

Wouldn't put too much into that since a boatload of names get kicked around, but if Cinci does fire the guy keep an eye on him.

Beyond that, I've heard that you shouldn't take reports that so-and-so college coach isn't interested at all seriously. That's a good general rule. It is a better one in this specific case. I know that people who have supposedly ruled themselves out have done no such thing and would welcome sincere post-Harbaugh interest from M.

Etc.: You could read all these posts or just this one EDSBS glossary, after which you know everything I do. Shemy says time to come home.

Comments

UMaD

December 11th, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^

Agree that OSU is near the very bottom.  I think it'd be much easier to turn around Colorado than get OSU title-competitive

  • Boulder is easier to recruit to, geographically, academically, quality-of-life, etc.
  • More historical prestige for Buffalos
  • No "little brother" vibe which Beavers have with Ducks

Wash State is clearly the toughest as Pullman is in the middle of nowhere and has next to nothing going for it.  Oregon State is next.

It'll be interesting to hear Anderson's rationale.

Don

December 11th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^

I suspect it actually has a lot to do with working for Alvarez. He might be the Badger's version of Frank Broyles, who was so famously hands-on down at Arkansas that he fired or drove out the three most successful coaches he had in Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield, and Houston Nutt.

pescadero

December 11th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^

PAC12 teams ranked by all-time winning percentage:

 

1) USC - .712

2) Utah - .622

3) UCLA - .590

4) Arizona State - .588

5) Colorado - .564

6) Washington - .557

7) Stanford - .528

8) Arizona - .515

9) Oregon - .492

10) California  - .465

11) Washington St. - .415

12) Oregon St. - .395

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^

Is that within the conference or all time regardless of conference? I assume the latter because Utah has a good % as does Colorado.  Neither have been in the conf long.  Even Arizona State as I was researching coaches had a long successful run with 1 coach (I forgot his name) before they joined the Pac 12.

pescadero

December 12th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^

That was all-time.

 

In conference winning %

 

1) Southern California: 434-168-28, 0.711

2) UCLA: 344-233-20, 0.593

3) Washington: 369-294-25, 0.555

4) Arizona State: 154-136-4, 0.531

5) Stanford: 323-288-21, 0.528

6) Oregon: 304-307-20, 0.498

7) Arizona: 145-151-6, 0.49

8) California: 290-339-21, 0.462

9) Washington State: 254-366-26, 0.413

10) Oregon State: 239-377-25, 0.392

11) Utah: 14-22-0, 0.389

12) Colorado: 4-32-0, 0.111

Code-7

December 11th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^

Maybe just because it's flashy but this sounds like a nice combination.

Not super impressed with Wisconsin's defensive performance against OSU overall in 2013 and 2014, they were solid. With what Herman has done, especially this year, could be the spark we need.

 

 

MIdocHI

December 11th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

I lived in Madison and know a huge Badger fan.  He said that he took his 8 year old son to an autograph signing with Alvarez and Big Bert.  He now hates Alvarez.  He said that Alvarez was extremely rude to him and his 8 year old son at this Wisconsin PR stunt.  He could not believe it.  So much for the goodwill Wisconsin was hoping to garner during a PR event.  I believe that he must be total ass to work for if he cannot even be nice for a short event put on by his department. 

 

Don

December 11th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^

My daughter attended UW Madison, and in the course of her on-campus job in one of the athletic facilities, she interacted with Alvarez on several occasions. She said he was pretty much an arrogant jerk.

UMaD

December 11th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

I know we're all-in on getting an A-lister, but if the Harbaugh/Stoops guys fall through and you assume the Herman/Narduzzi types are not risks Michigan will expose itself too....Anderson sounds a heck of a lot more appealing to me than the Addazio/Schiano/Austin tier of coaches.

Then again nobody knew Riley and Anderson were poachable a couple weeks ago, so there are probably names not being mentioned that could be options...

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^

I would put Colorado ahead of Oregon State.  Brian is old enough to remember Colorado as a NC with a Heisman winner.  OSU has no such history and sits in the middle of nowhere and has big brother Nike as its in state competition.  Colorado is radically underachieving in much the way Illinois is in football.  Both should be top 35-40 type programs consistently.

funkywolve

December 11th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^

to some extent agree but they have a few disadvantages.  While the campus is very nice, there are no good recruiting areas very close to Boulder.  Colorado doesn't produce a ton of D1 talent and the states that surround Colorado are:  Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.  They pretty much need to poach recruits from 2-3 states away.  Boulder isn't exactly the most diverse campus either. 

In addition, local support for the football team is pretty poor.  Like most schools when they are winning support is good, but there are a TON of transplants that live in the Denver area who have no interest in CU sports.  These past few years, they're lucky if the stadium is half full and there have been games this year where the student section is pretty much empty.  In addition, I'd charactize Denver as a pro sports town.  The Bronco's are far and away the king of the hill.

Most people were hoping that the move to the Pac-12 would help with recruiting, especially in southern California.  CU lobied hard to be in the same division as USC and UCLA.  So far the move to the Pac-12 hasn't done much for better recruiting.

I'd definitely put CU ahead of OSU and WSU in terms of Pac-12 jobs, but not sure I'd move them much higher then 10th.

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

Yes not saying its a top 6 job in the conf or anything.  But they do have the state to themselvs in terms of football market and have some history of success.  OSU is probably 30 miles away from Eugene and thats a massive shadow. 

And if you are playing in Los Angeles or San Diego the trip to Oregon v Colorado is not much different  in terms of distance - CA is a very long state.  You are not taking a road trip to see either campus nor are your parents easily making the trek overnight in a car.

cromartie

December 11th, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^

While the campus is very nice, there are no good recruiting areas very close to Boulder.

You mean having legalized weed isn't helping recruiting?

In all seriousness, I agree with you on the state of CU. Athletic department budget restraints going back to the Dan Hawkins years and a, how do I put this politely, periodically antagonistic relationship at times between the student body and athletics (I have memories of this back to the Chuck Fairbanks years) don't help matters.

UMaD

December 11th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^

OSU isn't EXACTLY in the middle of nowhere like Pullman is, and also less so than Eugene. To provide a Michigan example, it's closer to being a Kalamazoo than a Marquette.  But Corvallis is small even by college town standards.  There's not much to sell there, but they are upgrading facilities (as announced yesterday)...so there's that.

That said, I agree with your conclusion. Colorado has a lot going for it and has probably struggled in part because of the rise in power and coaching talent in the Pac12 coinciding with it's program's dark period.  I'd expect them to bounceback under somebody like Herman at somepoint.

uminks

December 11th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^

I'm not sure Harbaugh will make a decision until he is fired from the 49ers and see what is being offered to him from NFL teams, then weigh his decision to head to coach for Michigan or take one of the NFL jobs!  Our best chance is if the 49ers trade him to Jacksonville and this might be an NFL team he is not interested in coaching, then he would jump ship to Michigan. But all of this may not happen until mid or late January. And if he turns us down in late January we are scrambling for plan B.

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^

Jim has the right to dictate where he will be traded to.  He is not going to JAX.

Main worry is how long he takes to weigh his NFL offers.  It might take 3-4 days to really have the dust settle on jobs in the NFL so we're talking early January.  Then he has to weigh them and see what he wants. 

I believe Saban was hired Jan 6, and that was a guy who was not weighing offers from other NFL teams.  So Jan 6-10 might be reasonable here.

 

west2

December 11th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^

possible harbaugh isnt coming. Gotta accept that its very possibe and even likely he isnt coming to Michigan. Not buying the reasons for not disclosing hints about where he will end up. He knows where he is going right now and I wouldnt bet the farm that he is coming here. Once the 49ers are eliminated-likely this weekend-it will become clearer M needs to work on the next option and everyone needs to be supportive of whoever it ends up being and not collapse in heap muttering we are doomed.

The_Mad Hatter

December 11th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^

If the answer is no from JH, we should have it already.  In fact, if the answer is yes, we should have that already too.

I mean, what's to think about?  He has to know that he's not going to be coaching the 49ers next year.  So he either wants to coach Michigan or he doesn't.

I just hope that if the answer is no that he'll let Hackett know ASAP so he can move on.  Using Michigan as contract leverage while having no intention of coaching here is a shitty thing for him to do.  Especially considering all that Michigan has done for him. 

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

What's to think about is he doesnt know all his options yet.  Webb indicated a GM/coach position would be very alluring to Jim.  If he only gets NFL coach offers he runs into the same issues with players he has now.  If someone gives him a Parcells offer of combo job then the players have no one to run to when Harbaugh squeezes them. 

So until the season is over he doesnt even know all the possibilities. 

And the "all Michigan has done for him" stuff is overplayed - he doesnt owe the university anything in that regard. 

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

I mean we are all selfish here.  But if you are Jim Harbaugh you have to wait and see what is on the table for Jim Harbaugh.  If someone gives you a NFL HC+GM combo - which is rare - your landscape changes overnight vs "just" a bevy of NFL HC offers.   He is going to be the most sought after "free agent" (although not technicall free).  But until probably Jan 1ish he won't have an idea of his marketplace.

As it has been repeated, he has not said yes or no.  Which makes sense.  He doesnt even know what his options are at this point outside of UM.

ShadowStorm33

December 11th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^

I agree with you, which is why I'm pretty confident that if he's ruled us out, Hackett already knows, and that if and when he does rule us out, Hackett will be one of the first to know. It's one thing to publically use us as leverage, but I highly doubt that he would privately string us along.

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 4:49 PM ^

I don't know what you are disagreeing with.

Waiting to see what the marketplace is, is not "leveraging UM" for his own benefit.

If he knew he was not going to coach college football that would be leveraging UM.  Unless you have evidence he is staying in the NFL and this Michigan dance is all a ruse then again I don't know what you are arguing. 

Sounds like a guy who is still undecided and frankly without knowing all the offers on the table I dont know how you expect him to decide today.  Most (all?) of those offers will be known post Dec 28th.

Let's say his hierachy is like this

  1. GM+HC job NFL
  2. UM job
  3. HC job in NFL

What do you want him to do today? Wink at Hackett?  I'd rather he be honest than tell Hackett what he wants to hear only to see an option #1 roll in on Dec 30th and him go with that option.

Yes the minute he knows he does NOT want the job (if ever) he should let Hackett go.  But he doesn't know what his options are, one of which could strike him as more attractive than this.  Or not.

DomIngerson

December 11th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

If the answer is no and he's told Hackett then I feel like we'd have a Head Coach by now.

Brian was on WTKA this morning and mentioned that, while we're currently in a recruiting dead period, that only means we can't host recruits on campus. The coaches can still speak with recruits.

If we already had a no, we'd move quickly to get the new staff in place for a lot of reasons.

The way Hackett is operating certainly feels like he's very optimistic and as we all saw during the last press conference, he is a very bright dude.

I'm a glass half full kind of guy admittedly.



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ifis

December 11th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^

concerned about his wife and children, a completely legitimate reason not to come.  Regardless, if he doesn't come, its not because he doesn't love U of M.  Now, let's get Les Miles on board, yes? (nice avatar, btw)

funkywolve

December 11th, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^

the only opening in the NFL on the west coast this offseason is probably going to be Oakland.  Seattle and Arizona are almost guaranteed to not have openings.  Unless San Diego implodes in these final 3 games, they probably won't have an opening either.

Oregon St was the only Pac-12 that had an opening and it was filled.  So unless Jim is going to take a year off from coaching, he more then likely won't be coaching on the west coast next year.

jmdblue

December 11th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

Hackett may know it's yes, but there's no way in hell we would.  That would be a sure way to make a winning hand into a loser.

 

"if the answer is no" I still don't think we'd know, but there might be stronger signals and more aggressive courting of plan B type guys.  The one thing I think I know (at least I hope) is that JH isn't stringing M along with no hope of getting him.

Still don't think he's coming, but I'm more hopeful.

 

uminks

December 12th, 2014 at 2:00 AM ^

Harbaugh would be hour next coach. But in the last month I think it is a 50/50 chance. One thing in our favor is the attitude pro players are having towards Harbaugh. They don't like his college coach style in the NFL. I think Harbaugh may be getting sick of pro player attitudes and may have more fun and success coaching college kids! But then again Harbaugh may give it another go with a different team?

I see these two scenarios possible:

1.) Harbaugh wants to take a break from the NFL and will coach here 5 to 6 years may be less if he wins us a NC. Then he will try the NFL again.

 2.) Harbaugh stays in the NFL but gets burned out in 5 or 6 years and then wants to finish his career at Michigan.

Steve in PA

December 11th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^

I totally buy the family thing on JH and think that is the only obstacle. He may want to come but the bride does not. I faced the same dilemma after college. I had a good job offer locally and a better one further away but where I wanted to live. My wife wanted to stay close to her family. 16 years later I'm still close to her family :-(

ShadowStorm33

December 11th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^

The problem is he doesn't have a viable job offer locally. He's not going to Oakland, full stop. Which means he'll be moving somewhere, because you can be damn sure he's not going to just sit around idly in the Bay Area until something opens just because his wife doesn't want to leave...

Steve in PA

December 11th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

Or the Raiders (Davis) throws in a control title as well and the job goes from a bad job to a good, but not great, job and his family is happy to stay put.  If they want him that's the leverage he has to play because ANY coach will fail in Oakland otherwise.

I really don't think another pro team is in play if family is the hangup.

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^

Why is it an absolute no he is not going to Oakland?  I am not arguing he is, but why so resolute?  They are a bad team with a potentially very good rookie QB.   He has a history with the franchise.  He might be given full control.

Why is a 5-8 Chicago Bears with cancer Cutler (in his early 30s?) as the QB, in a job he has to move 2000 miles away better than 2-11 Oakland with a rookie QB with major upside, and no moving?

No one seems to be resolute in that he would not go to Chicago - but people seem to say no way for Oakland.  I dont know the respective rosters but both look pretty bad right now.

If I am him and I am a QB guru I'd rather go get the young QB who I can mold if I believe that guy can be a Luck type QB down the road in 2-3 years.  Carr just went 22-28 for 258 yards against a pretty vaunted defense.  Most rookies don't do that.

WNY in Savannah

December 11th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^

I think your comments in this thread make a lot of sense.  I don't know Jim Harbaugh except as an observer through TV and such.  But it sure seems to me like he would prefer to stay in the NFL.  Think about how many people have tried to claim that Harbaugh is a problem for the 49ers and that he can't work in the NFL because his personality wears on the players.  I don't think Harbaugh believes he is the problem for one second.  I think he would love to show the world that he wasn't the problem.  Heading to Michigan now could be looked at as agreeing with those who say he is better suited to college.  I don't think he would like that thought out there.  I think he would much rather prove the doubters wrong.  I think he might come to Michigan if he does not have a feasible NFL option.  This is why he "doesn't know what he wants to do". 

I think he does know what he wants to do but doesn't know if he will be able to get the situation he wants.  For all of the people saying "no way he goes to the Raiders", why not?  I think it is a very real possiblity.  And if he can get a head coach/general manager combo anywhere, I think he would take it in a heartbeat over Michigan.  He wants to prove he can do it.  Michigan is his plan B right now, just like Michigan's search firm is currently contacting their plan B coaching options.

Now I will repeat that I know nothing and am purely guessing based on observing Harbaugh from afar over the years.  There were a lot of "I think"'s in here for someone who knows nothing, but anyway...

MGoVictory

December 11th, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^

San Francisco's playoff chances:

These numbers come from FiveThirtyEight's NFL Week 15 Playoff Implications.

The long and the short of it is, a San Francisco win would greatly improve the 49ers chances, but still be less than 26% chance of making the playoffs. A loss diminishes the 49ers chances to just 2% or less.

The Detroit - Minnesota result won't have much impact, only changing the chance by 1.2% depending on the outcome. The only scenario where San Francisco is completely eliminated is if they lose, and Arizona and Detroit win.

 

funkywolve

December 11th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

if Detroit and Seatlle win this weekend the Niners are eliminated from the playoffs.

As it stands now the Niners are 7-6. 

Arizona is 10-3.  So if the Niners and Cardinals lose the Niners will still be 3 behind with only 2 to play.

Detroit and Seattle are 9-4.  If both of those teams win then Green Bay, Arizona, Seattle and Detroit will all be at worst 3 games ahead of the Niners with 2 games to play.