Football Expectations for Upcoming Season
Well, with the World Cup winding down, I am certainly getting back into college football mode. With that, I have been thinking much more about this year's Michigan team. Opinions here on the blog seem to be relatively pessimistic about our chances this year, and I am the same way. However, any other team in our situation this season would be highly optimistic about having a successful season by their standards. Here are the circumstances I'm talking about:
1. Returning numerous starters on both sides of the ball including basically an entire defense with players like JMFR, Ross, Countess, Ondre, Clark, Morgan, etc. and much of the offense including DG and Funchess
2. Incoming impact players (Peppers and Isaac)
3. High quality coaches in Nuss and Mattison
4. Favorable schedule outside of rivalry games
Now we are entering Hoke's fourth year, and I feel like he has definitely passed his grace period and has had more than enough time to implement his schemes, players, and depth. So, I guess what I'm getting at is with all of our circumstances, are we as fans allowed to expect 10+ wins by now?
More than anything, I just wanted to get some football discussion going on here, but this is a question I've been pondering for a while. Personally, I feel like with two five star running backs, all-B1G talent on both sides of the ball, nine very winnable games (3 toss ups), and many veteran players, there is no reason this team should not have at least ten wins when it is all said and done.
However, Hoke is Brandon's guy, and Brandon will do everything in his power to make sure that Hoke get's every bite at the apple he can. I don't think it's too far-fetched that if we have disappointing season (8 wins or less) in 2014 and 2015, that Brandon let's Hoke have another shot in 2016 so that he'll have a starting QB with experience at the helm. And even then, if we disappoint again in 2016, Brandon just might give Hoke another shot in 2017 when the schedule become favorable again to see if he can finally get it done.
I certainly don't believe that this should happen should that scenario occur, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it did.
We do not have "much stronger" guys than MSU. Often we are throwing out 19 year olds versus their 22 year olds. Just because they have a winged helmet and have 4 stars next to their name does not make them "much stronger". 2-3 extra years in a weight program gives someone man strength versus "teen strength". That is like saying Mike Martin as a sophomore was much stronger than Mike Martin as a senior.
It is not basketball - it helps to be loaded with seniors and juniors, esp if you can redshirt them, in football. Of course they have to be talented but Wisconsin and MSu are showing the advantage of redshirting almost everyone and having a bunch of 4th/5th year players load your 2 deep. It helps close the gap with the more talented (on paper) teams such as OSU and UM.
That said the gap between the 2 teams in strength/toughness should be smaller than it was last year as we had a lot of 2nd year plauyers running around out there versus their 4th/5th years. This year there will be a lot more 3rd year+ players out there. Then in 2015, there will be no more excuses as the 2010 class disaster is erased.
I am talking about the lines and LBs where strength/age really helps. If someone is "much stronger" as a CB, WR, QB etc I dont care.
But our interior OL was young and hence lacked the man strength and our DL last year in the middle also seemed overwhelmed some games. Black and Clark did fine but that is to my point - those were 2 of our older guys. Henry I really like and he flashed but there were some games he was just blown back on quite a few plays. The Henry of 2015 won't have that issue.
I am sure there are some exceptions out there - i.e. UCLA's OL was very young last year but by and large I'd take a bunch of high 3 stars who are RS JRs and RS SRs on the OL then a bunch of high 4s who are RS FR or RS SOs. OSU enjoyed the benefit of both - highly rated high star dudes and it was one of the best OLs in the country and MSU still smacked them around in the BT championship game at times - so again how anyone can show up and say we are stronger or were last year due to our starz is a bit far fetched to accept. We were onbliterated on the lines in that game and it wasnt just scheme.
If that continues the next 2 years we have another issue altogether.
I'd still like to know what Nussmeier was referring to when he said at the Women's Football Academy that he "...did have some changes he wanted to see out of the weight training and they have incorporated those changes (we didn’t get specifics on that)." (maizemama's diary)
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/2014-womens-football-academy
It's possible that the changes Nuss was referring to were real minor, but then why would he mention them at all? I've wondered all along if our issues on offense, particularly the OL, were partially due to S&C stuff, and the fact that Nussmeier saw the need for some changes would support that.
The 7, and near 4 wins (could have easily lost to Akron, NW, UCONN) were mostly due to the worst O line in the history of MIchigan football by two magnitudes. I mean, if the second worst ever was a 4 on the 10 scale, this was a 1.4.
When a unit is that horrible, there is a very large probability of vast improvement simply based on just how historically bad the unit Hoke presented last year was.
If this year's O line is even just one magnitude better than last year's Hoke's a goner. If it comes back to just average as is minimally expected, no chance this is a 7 win season. More likely 9, with 8 really the unlikely floor.
The OL stunk but the defense fell apart often too. I know Indiana scores on everyone but they were scoring at will for much of that game. And in 40 second drives. 47 pts? cmon. Against OSU in the 2nd half we literally had zero answers. It was a very good offense but not one that we should have zero ability to stop. Against Nebraska when we needed a stop they went down the field and scored. PSU had sort of a miracle late versus us, but it happened - that's on the defense.
The defense played well vs Minnesota and a broken down Northwestern and a long stretch vs Nebraska (before late implosion) but it had some bad stretches last year.
I am not laying it all on the defense but while the OL was a disaster the defense let us down way too many times last year as well. If the defense had done that in a year the OL was not so egregiously bad a lot more heat would have been on Greg M.
So I didn't neg you.
But if I did, I would have.
I think it's just incredibly unlikely that Michigan only wins 7 games this year. Yeah, I understand they won 7 last year, but you're talking about losing games on the road to teams like Rutgers. Or losing at home to Penn State. The defense will be too good. 5th year senior QB. WR good enough at least.
I think 10-2 is a very real possibility. I think 8-4 is the floor.
Rob
I'm going to make a conscious effort to enjoy victories a lot more than I have in the past, and I am going to try to not let losses bum me out as much.
With that being said, I have nothing new to add -- the keys are marked improvement on the o-line, Gardner's decision-making, and interior d-line play. I see 8-4.
I say the OLine is better and Devin can shine. RBs will thus do better.
D will be better
So we get 2 out of 3 against ND MSU and O.
Or we don't and Hoke is gone. Put Nuss in.
If OLine sucks again, then we will have a long season.
Everyone is getting excited about Michigan football again as the season draws near, and with that excitement, unrealistic expectations.
Most national analysts/observers/hacks have us as a middle-of-the pack Big Ten team. There's absolutely no on-field evidence to suggest we're anything other than that.
Like all Michigan fans, I sure hope all of our "maybes" turn into "yesses," but that almost never happens.
7-5
Agreed. If the spring game has been played last Saturday rather than 2 months ago I think more reality would be out there. The farther away you get from an event the more you tend to remember the positives. Aside from Freddy Canteen the second most positive thing about the offense from the spring game was a lack of injuries. It was bad.
No problem. Anytime you are feeling positive about any subject just find me, I'll help. ;)
Without the two best OL playing much, its no wonder the offense looked bad. It was already behind the 8-ball and needed its best out there to have much of a chance. If Mags and Glasgow are healthy and play, I think the O would have looked better...how much better, I'm not sure.
I look forward to fall camp with Mags, Glasgow, Darboh and Peppers...
I see the defense improving quite a bit this season with a lot of upper class-men talent on the field. A good to great D alone should get us 8 wins.
I hope we have a rocking D, but there's little on-field evidence to suggest that we will. It's just recruiting stars, unicorns, hopes, and dreams that suggest we will.
Mattison is the reason. He finally has experienced players in his system plus a lot of young studs. My haunch is the D will win some big games, like the one in East Lansing! We will be close to those shut down defenses he ran in the mid 90s! 2015 and 2016 should be awesome years. That's kind of why I hope Hoke survives since if he is canned so will Mattiosn.
Let's hope. We had experienced players (e.g., QWash, Black, Gordon, Gordon, Taylor, Morgan, Clark) and young studs last year, too, and we were pretty shitty.
The defensive line finally starts to look like a respectable defensive line.
Peppers plays both ways
Offensive line continues it's issues.
Fuck that!!! but have you been shown anything to realistically expect anything different?
I doubt this team will lose 6 games unless there are a lot of key injuries. I'm thinking 9-3 with a bowl win. Though if the OL never improves I could see 7-5. If the OL gels faster and the D improves like it should, I would not be surprised by a 10-2 record with a road win at ND, MSU or OSU.
I think 2015 will be Hoke's season to prove himself. No excuses. A verteran team, he needs to get 10 wins and beat MSU and OSU at home. Some games may be lost on a bad bounce of the ball, so his threshold would not have to be winning the conference championship. But 10 wins should be the threshold. If he finishes 2015 at 9-3 or 8-4, then it will be time for a change.
on paper, the trouble is that I don't think we have the staff to prepare our talent "to execute and play like a tough Michigan team". Nuss will obviously play a vital role in that department with respect to the offense, however, I have been extremely underwhelmed with Hoke and Mattision so far. Sure we've been very young the last few years, but the lack of improvement throughout the season has been disturbing. I watched MSU get better and better as the year went on last year and watching us go the opposite way was very disheartening and concerning
Given the unknowns, anywhere from 7 to 11 wins is in play. There's plenty of reason to expect defensive improvement and OH, MSU and ND all have significant off-season questions to answer themselves. This, along with Nuss gives me hope.
I think most likely 9 wins with 1 against ND, OH or MSU (in that order). The 3rd loss will be less expected, but will be close and frustrating as hell. Sadly, there's no way UM beats all three.
Ironically, I wouldn't have said so in 2011. I thought 10 was the stretch ceiling. You're right about 2012 & 13.
I guess I suck at this stretch ceiling prediction thing...
Was due to Robinson's injury. That was a 10 or 11 win season. Robinson would have beaten NE if he was not injured and we would have won the legends division.
I blame Borges for not having a backup QB ready for the NE game. Gardner should have been ready to go in the NE game and it would have been a close victory or loss.
2013 was a mess. The coaches made a mistake by not determining the best group of OL in summer camp. Too many changes in the interior line, no game time experience through the season. It was a real mess brought on by the youth bubble but made worse by poor coaching. We'll see how our new OC handles things this season.
Mistake 2, was never going to that later on.
8 wins in 2011. -3 11-2
10 wins in 2012 +2 8-4 ( I think if Robinson was healthy we would have 10 wins).
8 wins in 2013 +1 7-5
8 wins in 2014 but I could see 7 to 11 wins? I doubt 6 or less.
and one of PSU, Utah, Northwestern, etc. While I am expecting that result it does not mean I would be satisified. I still think that is a bad season for Michigan.
Not that anyone cares, but for me to be satisifed with the season we need at least nine wins with one of them over Sparty or Ohio.
Knowing the youth bubble was about to burst. If we would have beaten PSU in OT, we would have been 8-4. Though one could argue with so many close games we could have been 5-7 as well.
Hoke's first year was a surprise, especially how the defense improved in one season. Year 2 should have been a win in the Legends Division and I think it would have been if Robinson had not gotten injured. The third year was disappointing in that the OL did not improve through the season.
My prediction is 8-4. I'm hoping for 11-3 with an upset against one of the big road opponents. I want to see improvement in the OL and offense through course of the season, unlike last season. If we have more injuries this season I could see 6-6 but I think the defense will be stellar and even the D has to stay of the field like last season I find it hard t hat this team will lose more than 4 games, given that we will probably end up with the #1 or #2 defense in the conference.
I would hope the team will be playing well at the end of the season and we will win our bowl game.
My range would be 7-5 to 10-2.
This will be an extremely interesting team to watch. People seem way to set in their predictions, especially the pessimistic ones. This is by far the most talent/depth/experience Michigan has had on their roster since the Carr years. I think the people on this board attacking Mattison are off base and completely ignoring the dramatic transformation the defense experienced in his first season. Last season the defense was flawed but kept us in the vast majority of games despite having the most inconsistent offense in the entire country(I'll admit they were horrible against Indiana and Ohio St). He did this while the players he has recruited remained underclassman. That will change this year. Based on his history everything indicates that Nussmeier will at least bring about a more consistent offense that won't lead to constant 3 and outs. We no longer have to experince the horrible gameplans of Al Borges that have cost us multiple games during Hoke's tenure. The biggest challenge Michigan faces this year is that our three toughest oppenents are on the road. But luckily other than that our other games are very winnable. I think 9-3 is the most likely outcome but both 8-4 and 10-2 could also easily happen.
This will be an interesting team to watch. Mattison has finally got experienced players in his system. I would be surprised if the D did not improve dramatically over last season. Our new OC will be interesting to watch. I hope Nuss doesn't go too conservative where we gain yardage but run so much we don't get first downs. Borges had a few great game plans but had too many awful game plans. I just hope Nuss can get the running game back on track and Gardner can have a decent year. This team may be the best 8-4 or 9-3 team in the nation by the end of the season.
App St W 100%
@ND W 55%
Miami W 95%
Utah W 65%
Minnesota W 70%
@Rutgers W 85%
Penn St W 70%
@MSU L 40%
Indiana W 70%
@Northwestern W 55%
Maryland W 75%
@Ohio L 40%
10-2
100% for any game is off by a factor of "not impossible." For App St...weeellllll...
As for OH and MSU I can't see this team winning 4 of 10 at either place, but hope for an upset at both.
MSU's going down. Book it. JMFR will NOT allow Staee's running game to breathe and Ross, Clark and Co. will rain down Blue Thunder on Mr. Cook. ohio, with Braxton, at the shoe, we lose. South Bend will find itself awash in purple rain when blowhard's head explodes to yet another miracle UM comeback victory. We remind Franklin that Penn State is not Alabama and put a sound thumpin' on em. Sorry to say it, but Northwestern returns the favor and steals one from the Wolves. ohio beats the Skers in the Big 10 Championship and Michigan wins its January bowl game. 10-2 conference. 11-2 overall. Now, back to making the kool-aid so's i can drink some more.
Not unfair. Just a fact. Practice reps, S & C, maturity of mind and body, leadership/mentoring, and non-QB game experience all factor in as well. Counting QB-game experience only is a mistake. Some 5th year QBs don't start any games prior to their senior year, but there are still high expectations.
DG is a 5th year senior. He has less game stars than some and more than others. "Inexperience" isn't really an issue or excuse if he fails to lead strongly and play well.
You're making a couple mistakes, IMO. First, you seem to define "senior QB" as a 3 or 4 year starter only. You seem to think everyone immediately must think of a 4 year starter. The truth is, many senior QBs have only a year of starting under their belts (in fact, many 5th year starters at any position). It is handling with kids gloves to avoid using the term or soften senior expectations.
Secondly, it is clear that UM's coaches raise expectations for all seniors -- especially 5th year seniors, and especially 5th year senior QBs. Not only are they raising expectations for DG, but they're publically challenging him to do more, to play better, and to be a better leader. They don't seem to think expecting him to lead like a 5th year guy, prepare like a 5th year guy and play like a 5th year guy is unfair...and its not.
I think deflecting the fact that he's a 5th year senior QB and calling him a "2nd year starter" would be a problem, and would be against the nature of what this staff expects from its seniors. There can be some specific ackowledgement regarding some of his time not being at QB, and him "only" having 16 starts, but those would need to be very specific and somehow differentiate all 5th year seniors by game starts, or be arcane QB type stuff.
DG is a 5th year senior. He's started a lot of games. He's started a decent amount of games at QB. He is certainly not inexperienced, and in some ways he is extremely experienced. He needs to lead, prepare, play and win like a 5th year senior. The coaches expect that, and most fans should too. I think he'll be ready.