Basketbullets: 2018-19 Michigan State, Part Two
3/9/2019 – Michigan 63, Michigan State 75 – 26-5, 15-5 Big Ten
On the one hand: it was a five point swing against the team I like to see win basketball games. On the other: it was so ludicrous that it immediately crushed all hope, and that turned out to be the right emotional state. I of course refer to the 15 seconds during which Zavier Simpson missed an uncontested layup and Cassius Winston subsequently banked in a three. These are not the events that need to happen if you're going to win on the road against a top 10 team.
There were many problems. Some with Michigan, some with the way the game was officiated, some with the ensuing lineups after the way the game was officiated. But also aaaargh, randomness.
Anyway:
I repeat: a dude. The #1 reason Michigan's offense bogged down was Michigan State's ability to switch screens. The guy who gave them that ability: Xavier Tillman. Tillman had 5 blocks in this game; his performance was reminiscent of Michigan going up against Isaiah Roby last year.
Both Roby and Tillman were able to mirror and contest Michigan shots on supposed mismatches, sending Michigan into a bog of uncertainty and recriminations as the "be aggressive on switches" option backfired. Via Orion Sang, DeAndre Haynes on Tillman's impact:
“I mean, he was really good," said assistant coach DeAndre Haynes. "He impacted a lot of our shots. Every time we drove to the basket, he was blocking one of our guards’ shots. It was tough.
"We tried to change some things up with him, but he’s really quick off his feet. He uses his body well, and he was able to get his hands on a lot of balls that usually we make in games. Our guards really work on the layups we have. He was a better player today. He was an impact today, couldn’t do nothing with him.”
Michigan was horribly inefficient when they drove that supposed mismatch.
**By my count, Michigan scored 24 points on the 29 possess. (0.83 PPP) Michigan State switched with its '5' man. Xavier Tillman's ability to effectively switch unlocked this gameplan for MSU. His defense was *superb,* stifling Michigan guards all night: pic.twitter.com/9hc1AYGkNE
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 11, 2019
Nick Ward going out was the best thing that could have happened for MSU in these two games.
This is the primary subject of a new Solving Basketball podcast that I haven't had the time to listen to yet but I guarantee is very good.
NEW pod! @HalfCourtHoops is back for another game breakdown, this time on Michigan-Michigan State. The x's and o's and coaching adjustments that went into Saturday's game. Plus what the NBA does to attack switches
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) March 11, 2019
iTunes: https://t.co/YMnAu3ZwjF
YouTube: https://t.co/MHmVWcFbyj
Dumping it down. Michigan again struggled tremendously to take advantage of the other portion of that switch. Teske got the ball once, IIRC, and was called for a dubious travel. Extremely frustrating. Understandable, maybe, as Michigan is a team that absolutely never posts and you can't go from "we never do this" to "we are very good at this" in two weeks. But holy hell, frustrating.
I wonder if this will be an offseason focus for Michigan. It probably should be. Tillman's coming back.
[After THE JUMP: gnome autoviolence]
Are you allowed to contest vertically? At Iowa: no. At Maryland: yes. At Michigan State: lol why even ask. Dan Dakich repeatedly pointed out Izzo wheedling the refs early in the game and that paid off with a large number of Winston drives to the hoop on which Michigan was in good position and vertical only for Winston to get a call because he contacted a Michigan player's chest. That was supposed to be excised from the game, and sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn't.
So, in an event similar to Tyler Cook getting a foul call on Teske halfway through the first half against Iowa, Michigan suffered a foul it couldn't cope with when Brazdeikis took contact from Winston halfway through the first half and got called for his second. I guess it's tough sometimes because the offensive player gets into the defensive player's space and the arms come down as a result of that but the difference in the way this stuff gets called home and away is striking.
People complain when you complain but a 28-7 FT disparity (two FTs were late intentional ones) when Michigan entered the game with one of the lowest FTA rates allowed nationally, with many of those FTs questionable to inexplicable, massively impacts the game. For all the bitching about Michigan's second half offense they finished this game in a point range (0.95 PPP) that they can and have won games with this year.
While I'm on the subject. What?
I think that dethrones the Iggy held-ball-type-substance against Maryland for worst call of the year.
Oblig autobench. There is a valid reason you might autobench a player: if that guy is going to play like crap on defense because he's afraid of a foul. This does happen, you should pull him if his replacement is decent. That is emphatically not the case for this Michigan team without Charles Matthews.
Yes, Brazdeikis did foul out in 22 minutes. But benching him didn't increase that number. It just moved those minutes later in the game.
Michigan did get some good production from Weird Guys: Brooks had a couple of steals and had 5 points on 4 shot equivalents; DDJ had a couple of assists and wasn't overwhelmed on defense. Brandon Johns playing a position he hadn't really played all year, well…
three consecutive MSU buckets, two of them real real bad
…suboptimal. He got 13 minutes. Iggy fouled out; Livers was limited to 27 minutes despite finishing the game with two fouls. This isn't changing. Beilein's going to do it. I'm going to complain about it.
Evolving on switches. If an opponent has a center that can stay in front of Simpson I don't know if the switching situation is going to get any better. Simpson isn't a threat to shoot over Cs so they can sag, taking away both drives and passing lanes. Moving that action to Poole is a potential solution but the team's offense has revolved around Simpson at its best moments this year. Poole's only had the occasional flash as a creator. I'm doubtful that would end up being a major improvement.
Probably have to try it at some point, though. The other possibility might be a weird one: Livers, who must be checked at the three point line and might have the size to get the ball into the post against a 6'8" guy. Or Iggy, I guess, but Iggy is a black hole.
There is probably not a solution. Switches put you in iso situations.
That being said… Michigan really lacks consistent one-on-one playmaking – someone that can just go downhill and get a bucket. @hoopvision68 mentioned it on his pod today, but Michigan is in the 30th percentile in isolation offense, shooting 32.6% (37% eFG) in those situations.
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 11, 2019
Teams that have mobile, switchable centers will be a tough matchup for the rest of the year, however long that is.
I would think you could intentionally drive right at Tillman and then either try to get him in the air - and dump it off to Teske for a dunk, or then possibly contact.
It's clearly crazy to start with Tillman 20 feet from the basket because Tillman isn't a liability out there and Teske is.
I'm still not sure I understand what you are saying. If Teske and his man are both in the paint with someone else setting the screen, there is no room to roll or drive into the paint because Teske and his man are already standing there. The whole idea of the pick and roll is to try to give one of the offensive players are free line to the basket. That can't happen if you've purposely set an offensive player and his defender there.
This team is 26-5. Yes, you're wrong.
Your first clue should have been your first sentence, where you basically said "I don't know what I'm talking about."
I tend to not worry much about the opinions of those that think falling down next to a guy wearing another colored jersey is a foul.
But that's just me.
You're wrong. More often than not, Simpson and Teske are great in the pick and roll game. They rarely both have bad games at the same time. I challenge you to find two other instances all year in which that's been the case. I don't think you can.
Simpson made bad decisions to continue challenging Tillman and Teske had an abysmal night (couldn't hit the rim!). Credit to Tillman for some of that because he's really, really good, but Michigan can play that a lot better, they can make better decisions, and they can shoot better.
Tillman exposes a problem the team has with Simpson shooting, and as noted teams they can exploit that will. But it would also have been nice to see Simpson try to initiate contact a bit with Tillman and see if he can get a whistle. It's not optimal, but in another game where both PGs are getting the same contact fouls then that's maybe a way to get MSU out of it.
What did stand out to me was UM without Matthews misses what MAAR gave them last year: an end-of-clock guy who can generate a decent scoring opportunity. A lot of these stretches of bad play against MSU happen when the ball just gets moved around the perimeter and then a shot goes up late. Matthews can get a decent jumper over MSU defenders or, because of that threat, maybe springs someone else. Having him back will likely help some of the offensive issues the team has shown against MSU, even if overall I don't think he'd demonstrably "unlock" the offenses potential. It's a pretty good offense that pales in comparison to the murderball units UM has had before.
The problem was that when Simpson tried to drive Tillman, either his layups fell off or they got rejected. Worse, Tillman mostly did the smart kind of block -- instead of going for the highlight and knocking it out of bounds, he mostly knocked it back onto the court, which generally meant MSU possession instead of Michigan inbounding the ball.
The refs missed some contact, absolutely -- but also, he was trying to go around Tillman and get to the basket, instead of going into him. In a sane world, going into the defender is a worse result -- you either get a charge or a play-on (verticality) and a miss. In a Big Ten road game, who knows?
You probably won't get a charge. You might get a play on with either a make or a miss. But you may very well draw a foul if the defender bring his arms down to block the shot, which happens quite often. Iggy got to the line on exactly that. Simpson, Poole, et al were not as aggressive when they went to the basket.
Machiavellian Izzo: Listen, you've had a great/OK career at this institution. Alas, your substitute is fundamentally better than you in ways that actually win games. My medical staff has deemed you INJURED!
MSU FTAs
60 against Michigan in two games
27 against Indiana in two games
Get fucked, refs
Isn't one of the most egregious misses at 7:33 of the video below? Teske goes up for the put back and Tillman absolutely bulldozes him in the back, even extends his arm doing so. Teske hits the shot, but holy hell that's an obvious one - there's only two guys under the basket and the ref is staring right at them.
That would have been a huge momentum play, and #2 for Tillman just 30 seconds into the half. Maybe doesn't change anything, but may make him think a little more when defending, given their lack of depth.
There were a lot of missed calls. Yes.
REGARDING SWITCHES:
I'm sure there is a simple explanation for this that someone can point out, but as discussed here repeatedly, it seems our offense has issues as a result of the opposition switching all screens. I get this if we only run one screen on a pick and roll and then stop. But why wouldn't we continue screening until we get a matchup we want? If their 5 is sagging on X so he can't shoot, drive, or lob an entry on him, keep screening.
For example, X & Teske run a pick and roll at the top of the key - they now have the 5 & 1 defenders on them, respectively. Poole sets another screen for X - now the 5 is guarding Poole and X gets their 2. Now you can run a new pick and roll/pop with Teske, and both of them will have the two smallest defenders guarding them, giving them a matchup advantage they can leverage.
Not a terrible idea, but I think there is a better way to approach this and it's simpler than that. I think Michigan needs to re-screen with the 1 and 5, especially against MSU because you want to take Tillman out of the play and you want Winston guarding the ball.
So on the initial screen, get the switch, and then have Teske just come back and screen Tillman. This does two things:
1) gets Simpson going downhill against Winston - a matchup he will win more often than not and
2) Crucially, it makes it tough for Tillman to stay in the play because if he's being screened and sealed by Teske, Teske has the position to roll for a pass or rebound a miss because Tillman is behind him on his hip.
Home vs Road reffing
At home they look for reasons not to call fouls on the home team
Away : They look for reason to call you for a foul.
This crap goes on and exists all in the "gray area" of officiating.
The Donaghey piece was illuminating, they couldn't find many blown or phantom calls in the games he reffed. So the NBA washed their hands. But when a former NBA official, he explained that yes these are all calls within the rule book, but he never "settled into" the rules of the game. Calling one side with a strict intepretation of the rule book , and the other side with lax.
The Loyer call is perfect. Sure Simpson contacted, grabbed Loyer. Was it contact that gave Simpson and advantage. Probably not.
Meanwhile on the other parts of the game we are getting hacked and pushed with no call
Izzo won this one becuase he's Izzo and won the refs heads. I thought we were in trouble when I didn't recognize the refs.
I am just going to leave this here for those that think some fans are just whining about the officials. Just a little comparison of how the top 3 teams finished.
Number of Games the team had even or less fouls called against them than an opponent ranked lower nationally in fouls per game
MSU= 10 games, lost 2
Michigan= 0 games, lost 0
Purdue= 7 games, lost 1
Number of Games the team had more fouls called against them than an opponent ranked higher in fouls per game
MSU= 3, lost 2 (won purdue at home)
Michigan= 9, lost 5
Purdue= 3, lost 0 (Rutgers at home, PSU away had to go to OT, OSU at home 19-18 fouls)
Foul difference in games lost
MSU= 118 to opponents 116 (6 games) average of 19.6 fouls per game vs 19.3 for opponents
Michigan= 96 to opponents 66 (5 games) average of 19.2 fouls per game vs 13.2 for opponents
Purdue= 150 to opponents 123 (8 games) average of 18.75 fouls per game vs 15.375 for opponents
Free Throw attempt difference in games lost
MSU= 123 to opponents 145/ average of 20.5 free throw attempts per game vs 24.17 for opponents
Michigan= 66 to opponents 127/ average of 13.2 free throw attempts per game vs 25.4 for opponents
Purdue= 121 to opponents 174/ average of 15.13 free throw attempts per game vs 21.75 for opponents
Of games lost, at least 10 more fouls than opponent
MSU= none
Michigan= 4/5
Purdue= none
Number of games lost where the team had less fouls than their opponent
MSU= 3
Michigan= None
Purdue= 2
Excellent and riveting. Thank you for compiling. Reminds me of the offensive holding analysis that was done during the football season this year, in terms of how eye opening the comparison is.
The reality is that most people here cannot accept that officiating can be biased against Michigan. It's because it introduces the possibility of nefariousness or something other than the players themselves deciding an outcome. That is hopeless and terrifying to a lot of people and they simply cannot make room for it in their brains. So they throw around insults like "stop whining," or "you're a conspiracy theorist," etc.
What you've pulled together is very compelling data where Michigan's results as it relates to the officiating are clearly an outlier. Yet, the majority of people will still not read it, process it or choose to make any room for the possibility of it being valid, long-term and targeted in its' reach.
Anyway, some of us really appreciate it, that's for sure. Thanks again.
March 11th, 2019 at 10:27 PM ^
I felt it was so blatantly biased that the numbers would be a bit staggering. To be clear I am not saying Michigan would have won those games but they would have been close. This is what angers me the most because I feel the officiating robbed us of some games that would have gone to the buzzer. The MSU games could have come down to last shot and that would have been amazing, win or lose.
Sam Webb said something this morning on WTKA that I completely agree with. All of Izzo's nonstop yelling and screaming at the refs is to scare them and condition them into giving him calls. It's absurd that that SoB has never been ejected from a game in his career
Even if you take a microcosm of the game you can see how significantly this affected the game.
Look at what happened between 8:15 and 6:42 in the second half - take away the nonsense that happened in just that 90 seconds and you're likely looking at a 3 point game instead of a 12 point game.
March 11th, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
Is it too much to ask that refs can grow some damn balls and not be afraid of an abusive midget, even if the home court is just as crazy.
The BB players practice with crowd noise piped in. Maybe the stripes should train the same way.
The Teske travel call was terrible, but I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere the most egregious reason why:
The official directly underneath basket didn’t call a damn thing. The official on the wing, ball side, 30 ft away called it.
Officials have an unwritten agreement/rule - don’t show up your partner. I understand we all can see stuff on TV and at games from quite a distance away. If you watch the underneath officials reaction, it was like “What?l
That same wing official called the OSU/Wisc game next day, and called a foul underneath from the same exact spot while the official underneath gave the verticality sign.
Officials want to get calls right and there are times they get blocked and need help. These weren’t those situations and I’d bet he was made aware by his partners. This isn’t the first time he’s felt the need to help out his partners.
I wrote this in another thread the other day, but my old man has been a D1, 2, and 3 ref for the past 40 years, all in the upper midwest. He also runs his own college reffing camp in the Twin Cities. He either knows each ref directly, or knows of them/about them.
The ref you are talking about, is considered the worst ref in the conference, if not the country. In the reffing inner circle, he is also considered a shitty ref. Dude continues to get work because that's the way she goes. Even a shit apple gets made into a shit pie.
When he called that travel over the baseline ref, my old man (a Badger fan) texted me just livid about how awful he is.
You're talking specifically about Lamont Simpson, not Terry Oglesby, right? Both of them worked the two games mentioned (Michigan @ MSU and Wisconsin @ OSU). Oglesby worked both MSU games and several other Michigan games, including the game at Villanova. Simpson, on the other hand, is almost exclusively a Big Ten referee: of his 36 assignments this year, 22 are Big Ten conference games, and 6 more are Big Ten non conference games. He also called the Purdue / PSU game with the controversial ending.
Yah, Lamont Simpson
widely regarded as the worst ref in the B1G amongst even the other refs
Vinny - honest question - is there a shortage of suitable refs and/or up and comers that results in this guy continuing to be used?
My old man is 70 and is still doing games because he is friends with all the schedulers and they just need bodies.
For the D2 and D3 leagues he helps out in, lots of D1 guys come down because schedulers can’t get enough quality refs in those leagues, and especially ones that will travel the necessary distances.
From what my dad tells me, there was a dip in guys a decade ago, who should be in their upper 40s and 50s now, allowing the 20s and 30s some time to grow in the lower divisions.
But now everyone is sped up to fill holes in crews.
Thanks for the info.
I always try to give high school officiating a break as I can't imagine anyone who doesn't simply love the game doing that job (any sport). It certainly isn't for the money. With that said, I attended 4 high school girl's basketball games this past season and the officiating was lifetimes better than what we regularly see in many of these B1G games. I realize that the game is much faster in college but as I've stated in other posts - your job is to call what you actually see, not what you think might have happened. That may not necessarily affect that travel call but it would certainly affect the phantom touch calls. You simply can't be making calls based on player reactions as many of them have gotten very good at faking contact. Winston, in particular, regularly throws his head back with no contact and quite frequently gets the call.
Surprisingly the money’s not bad for what amounts to 90 minutes of work on HS.
I did it for a year to give it a try and do my best to get into the family business
The parents for high school teams are relentless - especially the girls - and you can hear every god damn word they shout at you because the parents are the only fans in the gym
i realized I didn’t have the mental make up to be berated by the coaches, the fans, the freaking ball boys, you name it, for every decision I made.
After watching my dad for 35 years and watching games with guys he says are good refs, I just hate watching shitty refs - they get paid WAY too much in the B1G to be so damn bad
The pink shoes are the problem!! Please get rid of the stupid pink shoes for both tournaments and Go Blue!!
This is where losing Matthews to ankle injury hurts Michigan. He's the only one who is capable at taking advantage of switches one on one. As much as many hates on him for offense, but he provides that value there. Another big loss is his defense, he is their best defender and would help out with guarding Winston.
Hopefully, David DeJulius can make a leap to a guy who can score one on one or at least close to Derrick Walton's senior year magic.
March 12th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
I'd like to see Beilein huddle with the referees prior to the next MSU game and suggest that he is going to ride them mercilessly for their incompetence throughout the game on each possession.
He can make it clear that he will be going out of character for this game because - based upon his prior MSU game experiences - they obviously appreciate and respond to such criticism
March 12th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Someone else may have already mentioned it, but it seemed like the refereeing collapse started with the atrocious call/no call in the first half when Winston took 4 steps (3 1/2ish) while holding the ball, takes the shot and somehow draws a foul instead of the travelling (the foul was also contact he initiated), the officiating was at its worst from that point on. The way these B1G games are called is so frustrating that they are nearly unwatchable. The home court team and/or the coach that can annoy the refs the most gets the calls - except Bielein who gets thrown out when he raises his voice a few decibels while UM is the recipient of some of the worst calls we will ever see
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