Statistical solution to autobenching
I was annoyed during the Maryland game when Zavier Simpson sat on the bench for what seemed like almost 10 minutes after he picked up his 3rd foul, and our lead turned into a deficit. As has been mentioned on this site many times, it seems that Belien (and all coaches) conflate the goal of avoiding time on the bench with the goal of avoiding fouling out. He likely sacrificed many minutes of playing time for Zavier as a result, and made a game that otherwise likely would have been a comfortable double digit win into a game that was much closer. Interestingly, Belien proved this strategy wrong, IIRC, when he allowed Isiah Livers to keep playing after he picked up an early foul against Nebraska when he was essentially forced to due to Charles Matthews' injury. All Livers did is finish with a double double and that one foul, playing 34 minutes.
So let's stop complaining and do something about it. I propose that one of you with the skills and a lot more time than me take this approach:
Set up a linear regression estimating the number of minutes per foul for each player in a particular game based on:
- the M player
- the opposing team
- the referee team
- home or away
You could even develop and validate the model in separate datasets to show Belien it works.
But then you could take it a step further using a Bayesian approach with this regression serving as your prior probablity, and update the posterior probablity in real-time during games informed by the number of minutes played and fouls for each player. Belien could then see that when Zavier gets his 3rd foul, or Isiah picks up his 1st, they likely have X number of minutes left of playing time, and Belien can decide whether to spend those minutes earlier or later in the game.
Im only against autobenching for certain players in certain situations
Some games Matthews or Iggy pick up an early foul and Beilein immediately benches them. Every time they are benched early in the game they become nonfactors on offense for the entire game. This is especially true for Matthews. Must be some mental thing like they aren't able to get into a groove or just get too down on themselves for being benched so early
Teske I can understand being autobenched as he is ridiculously important to our defense and offense. Maybe Castletons emergence has changed this a bit
Excellent points-very much under-rated ones. The risk of disrupting the rhythm of some players is critical. Some players need to play through the bad and others need a break from it.
Otherwise, the idea of using an auto-bench as punishment-that some are suggesting...is a bankrupt thought.
Are you suggesting that coaches shouldn't bench players that do what the coach told them not to do?
If playing time is a reward for playing well then isn't benching a punishment for not playing well?
How does one coach rhythm and how does one measure it? I am asking for a coach that teaches players to know where the air nozzle is on the ball at all times.
Beilein and Izzo both caught flak in the same week a few years back for not fouling in the final seconds with 2-3 point lead. One team lost and the other won in OT. I was entertained by the number of people that thought that two coaches with 400 wins between them had it wrong. Regardless of the defense called neither team had a chance to foul without sending the opponent to the line for 3 shots.
I say we need better insight into the people who make posts like this. I don't want to do the work, but I propose someone should do a psychographic study of 1985sec4row23. I think they should follow 1985sec4row23 around all day and night. Monitor, observe and document everything they do and every decision they make on a daily basis for a few weeks. I think they should then write and publish a report highlighting all of the poor decisions 1985sec4row23 makes on a daily basis and then provide no alternative solutions to help 1985sec4row23 live a better life. Instead we should just question everything 1985sec4row23 does with their life now that we have more insight into the poor decisions 1985sec4row23 makes on a daily basis. It would utilize a validated research method thus must be correct.
This is why I've argued to let our best player sit the first 8 minutes if game, then let him play the rest .
You must be a manager
Beilein is a great coach, but benching players in the 1st half after they get 2 fouls is too automatic. I agree that they need to sit for a few minutes after that 2nd foul, but depending on the situation, sometimes they need to play.
I thought that benching Trey Burke in the 1st half against Louisville in the 1st half cost us the game. I can think of 3 or 4 more instances where the auto-benching costed us the game with Mo Wagner and other players.
So you're saying Burke's replacement was a disaster that cost us the game? Me and Kate thought Spike acquitted himself quite nicely.
We are all over thinking this. Eliminate auto-benching until you get your 4th. Once you get that you sit until the 3 minute mark. FROM that point forward you never lose another 10 minutes of playing time with someone ending a game with 3 fouls, or even worse 2 fouls.
AUTOBENCH at 4. How long you sit is up to how early you foul.
Minutes wasted is the most important thing. Stop punishing your own team. The penalty is at 5 not 2. Stop making a penalty where there isn't one.
As soon as a coach followed your strategy, you'd criticize him for doing so. "I can't believe he didn't sit that guy and let him cool off early in the first half! If he hadn't been glued to the bench for 25 minutes for coach's stupid never-bench policy, his team would have won!"
Simply put: Bayesian Analysis is made null and void because B1G refs are involved.
Ah yes a chart from the internet you say? Splendid. Let me have a look
Beilein believes players in foul trouble play shitty defense. So you'll need a much more complicated model to factor in team and individual defensive efficiency when 'in foul trouble' to ever change his mind.