Random Collection of Football Thoughts. Comments welcome
Here is a random collection of Michigan football thoughts. While some of this may be "statements of the obvious," your comments are welcome. Note that I love Michigan football and do have many positive things to say about them. However, this post is meant to be a "look in the mirror" with an eye toward getting better.
1) Jim Harbaugh is a lot like Bo Schembechler. Both ran a run-heavy offense that was predicated on having a dominant man on man advantage over your opponent. As was the case with Bo, this will work against much of the Big Ten/the non-conference schedule, but will often fail against OSU, at least 1 other B1G opponent, and many likely bowl opponents. With more parity in college football these days, JH will do slightly worse than Bo if things continue this way. A National Championship is out of the question, but finishes near number 10 nationally (with a bowl loss more often than not) will become the norm. Just like Bo. We can do better.
2) JH and staff are great teachers of fundamentals. Marginal players often become Solid players. Huge gaffes are much less common than they were under Brady Hoke. What disturbs me is that Good or Very Good players do not become Great players. Great players do not become Superstars (although I appreciate him, I consider Rashan Gary a disappointment). We desperately need people to make big plays. I wonder if the emphasis on "doing your job" is taken to such an extent that people in this system are just not free enough to make big plays?
3) The weakness of Wisconsin and MSU this year makes our season look even worse.
4) We have a good QB and good receivers. Our O Line has improved. At this point, our offensive issues look increasingly schematic. I like how the offense is simpler this year, but we still have too many plays that require multiple things to go right vs a quick hitting offense that uses misdirection to quickly get people the ball in space.
5) Every year the team peaks after the first third of the season and then looks bad in the final third of the season. This is even after adjusting for the end of year strength of schedule (e.g., we always seem to struggle with Indiana). Is our team tired and worn out at the end of the year? Are 4 hour practices good at the start of the year and counter-productive at the end? Is there another issue that contributes to this end of year physical and mental fatigue?
6) I did not care for the outright arrogance of the players after the big win streak that they had this year. Guaranteeing wins and blabbering about the Revenge Tour. I thought the coaches showed this same arrogance in the uncreative game plans vs OSU/Florida that smacked of arrogance. The 2017 OSU game plan was VERY creative because we (correctly) assumed we were the underdog. The 2018 game plan seemed to assume that we were just the better team. We need to smack this arrogance down and create an "underdog with a chip on your shoulder" mentality like Saban and Dantonio do. I know that these efforts often seem silly and fake, but I prefer the coach that is constantly saying "we can do things better." Alabama has a right to be arrogant, yet shows far less arrogance than we did.
7) We are taking some really good players for granted (particularly the WRs) and now I am betting that we are going to lose some of these players to transfers. This is just sad. Losing Oliver Martin or Tarik Black would be tragic.
8) Don Brown can just assume that opponents will put two WRs in a stack on one side (overloading one side with talented players and making it harder for the corner to get his hands on the trailing WR) and run picks / inside slants off of this. Starting with Northwestern, everyone has done this to us. But the good teams have gashed us. They have also found ways to match fast RBs on our slower linebackers fairly consistently. We dodged A LOT of bullets this year in that regard.
9) By the end of the year when opposing offensive lines are working well together as units and Don Brown blitz packages seem to lose their effectiveness. The chaos created in the first 6 weeks seems to disappear at the end of the year.
10) Nepotism (Jay Harbaugh) and not firing or being slow to fire your friends (Pep and Drevno) are not good things. It may be "classy" to let these guys find another job first, but they are probably not doing their current jobs in the meantime. We lost Dan Enos to our slowness in dealing with Drevno. I am betting that Pep will struggle to find a job and this will affect our ability to land a good OC.
11) We need one mind directing the offense on game day. Offense by committee will result in dysfunction that would take a very long post to fully explore. Don't do it.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^
One thing that I did not write down in my OP. I have noticed that Don Brown will try to smother inferior competition and try to hold them to no score and almost no yards. Starters will stay in the game when we are up by 30 points. Man to man coverage will continue. Blitzes will still come fast and furious.
I sometimes wonder if a better approach might be to use the opportunity that a big lead gives you to PRACTICE the zone or brackets coverage that you will need against the OSUs or bowl opponents later in the season.
Our attempts to run zone and brackets coverage vs OSU and Florida were horrifying. So many breakdowns. Some in-game experience earlier in the year might help even if we give up more points and more yards. We might also lose our coveted Number 1 Defense in America title......but it would be worth it if it gave us some tools in the toolkit for later in the year.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:02 PM ^
Against any top team, the defense can afford to bend, just not break. Like it’s okay if a team marches down the field, just save the energy to keep them to FGs, not TDs.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
1. Maybe JH is a lot like Bo, but you can't extrapolate that to mean much else. Bowl losses are the norm now? Like most of your posts this is just negative for the sake of it. It can't be argued because it's about the future. I'm certain you weren't saying this leading up to the OSU game. So what changed? Other than the obvious which you don't consider in your argument?
2. If you think we don't have superstars under JH you just aren't watching. The NFL certainly thinks we do. I think you actually mean we don't have a flashy QB or RB. I sort of get your point about Rashan but what about Winovich and Bush? or Long and Levert? That's 5 guys on this team just on defense that great players if not superstars (Bush).
3. Maybe, but again this is just being negative for no reason and has nothing to do with "looking in the mirror" or whatever you claim this post is supposed to accomplish.
4. Maybe but until OSU the offense didn't struggle to move the ball this year. We averaged 6.2 yds/game with a difficult schedule. Only 13 teams were over 6.5 and only 6 of those would be considered a good team (e.g. not Purdue, Ohio, Memphis, Utah St, Ole Miss, App St). This is a long way of saying I'm not so sure the "quick hits" nonsense is the panacea you're hoping for.
5. This is just a question that I can't answer. however, including practice time is dumb unless you know something about other schools and their lack of practice at the end of a season. Most schools talk about practicing more near the end but I don't really know.
6. You're probably alone here. Everyone else loved the revenge tour while we were winning. I do agree with your latter comments about assuming we're the better team so we didn't try to out scheme OSU. If you think MSU and Alabama aren't arrogant (at least as much as a few guys wearing a t-shirt) you aren't paying attention.
7. You're upset about something you just made up. I can't predict the future but Black confirmed that he was coming back already. I have heard nothing about Oliver Martin wanting to leave. Also would it really be tragic? I don't want either to leave but sometimes things just don't work out. We would survive without either - but again, i really want both to stay.
8. Only OSU "gashed" us. We beat everyone else other than Florida and they gashed us on the ground. If you have a fast RB that can also run routes and catch then that is a weapon that will hurt any linebacker. That isn't unique to our scheme nor do you really claim that. You're mostly just screaming at the clouds here. It sucks when a team has really talented players. I think we all agree that's tough to defend.
9. I'd like to see some stats here. This feels completely made up. yes, we struggled in our last two games but injuries and just playing good teams seems like a more likely reason than OLs playing as a team.
10. I don't know how good of a coach Jay Harbaugh is. Do you? Please tell me what his shortcomings are. Pep and Drevno can't be fired just because mogblog thinks so. Maybe they are the problem but you kind of contradict that in your next bullet. Maybe it's the offense by committee that you just made up.
11. This is not unique to M and it's not offense by committee. Pep and Harbaugh talk. Pep comes up with a play and JH agrees or vetos. At least that's how I've heard it described. I think too much is made of this. It is my understanding that this happens almost everywhere. If the coach isn't even aware of the plays being called then they are just watching the game. Is that better somehow? It did seem slightly more confusing last year with Drevno calling some plays too but I'm still not concerned about this configuration in any way. I'd rather see more creative play calling but I believe that is separate from some offense by committee theory.
In short, everything you've said is basically your opinion and not backed up by anything. I understand it would take more than 10 minutes to actually think or look up stats/trends but these posts are worthless. What do you think is going to come of this? Is Harbaugh reading and now finally realizing that 4 hour practices are bad? Seriously, what do you possible think will come of this? You didn't say anything that hasn't been repeated 10+ times on here. We're all upset about the finish of the season but trashing the program and coaching staff just doesn't feel helpful to me. If there is any impact to your post it'll be a continuation of a negative echo chamber that makes recruits/players hate the fan base (this has come up as a problem in the past). Unless that's your goal, stop repeating the same baseless ideas.
To those who think we need to critique the staff, I welcome that. If this had any stats or facts behind it I would give it more weight. But to say we can't blitz at the end of seasons because OLs start to play better as a team seems like a stretch. Maybe do a little research and see how our havoc rate or pressure or sacks changed late in the year. Do something other than complain for no reason.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:48 PM ^
Beating OSU needs to be the #1 priority. Spend some time each week for OSU. I don’t care if we have to tank the previous week’s game before if it means an extra week of preparation and rest. Indiana always feels like some Pyrrhic victory anyway.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
THIS^^
It is all about beating Ohio State in 2019. That is all that matters.
Do NOTHING that is not about beating Ohio State.
I want us to be like Bo and design our offense to beat their defense. I want us to design our defense to beat their offense.
If that means we get steamrolled by Wisconsin, then we get steamrolled by Wisconsin. If that means we lose a 45-42 shootout to Indiana, then we lose a 45-42 shootout to Indiana.
If that means we have to learn tempo, then we learn tempo. If that means we pass on first down, then we pass on first down. If that means we rush 3 and cover with 8, then we rush 3 and cover with 8.
Whatever it takes.
WE ARE GETTING OVER THIS HUMP.
I want us to obsess about beating Ohio State the way they obsess about beating us.
We make fun of them for things that overly focus on us like "Michigan Monday". Fuck it, I want "Ohio State Everyday". If their cheerleaders have a new move I want to know about it. If their third trombone player quits, I want to know about it. If the guy who puts the Buckeye stickers on the helmets is replaced, I want to know about it.
We make fun of them for X-ing out the "M"s in all their signs the week before the game. Fuck it, I want us to X out the "O"s, and X out the "H"s, and X out the "I"s in all of our signs, and then go back and X out the "O"s all over again.
I want a countdown clock that shows the hours and minutes and seconds until we install an Ohio State countdown clock.
I want a single-minded focus on beating Ohio State to the point of unhealthy obsession. Just like they do with us.
I don't want any bullets left in the gun when we leave the field against them next year.
WE ARE GETTING OVER THIS HUMP.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:15 PM ^
Continue drinking and stay up!!
January 2nd, 2019 at 10:55 PM ^
I will gladly take any 8-4 regular season with a win over OSU than a 10-2 without. Next year, the MSU game is right after the bye, then Indiana, then OSU. The Indiana game can go to the dumps for all I care. Put the second team in so nobody critical gets hurt.
January 3rd, 2019 at 1:45 AM ^
I love your enthusiasm and emphasis. Hopefully, we're at the point where we can do more of that.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
Hot take maybe here but as a fan from the 90's watching Rice, Young, Taylor and Watters when they were together, that offense was just the best I've ever watched. You can say that Ram's offense with Bruce, Faulk and whoever else was a great one and it was but in my mind it wasn't that great west coast offense of the Niner's. That Cowboy's, Giant's, Redskin's defense's back then were all stacked with talent and those boys took it to them. That was real football back in those days.
I would jump in an ice cold lake if Michigan hired the best west coast coordinator out there(if there even is one anymore). The Niners ran the ball with Watters(Craig in the 80's) and utilized their great talent on the outside for many many years. They had running quarterbacks in Montana and Young who could get out and go. Michigan's 1st, 2nd and 3rd string guys can all do that. The offense has so much talent on this team that it needs to be utilized and not rely on a not so awesome ground attack. Until the team gets that talented bad ass at runningback, this makes way more sense to me. It does to many. Maybe Charbonnet is that guy? We don't know yet. He's still only a true freshman. How many come in like that at that age and kill it? Not many.
Maybe Jim does need to give over the play-calling to one man and manage it from there. He has enough things to do on the field to not need to think about the next play every down. If he thinks something should be done in any given situation he can obviously throw it out there for that coordinator to do. I think you need that (one mind) in control of that responsibility. Take the second guessing out of the situation and let the man do is job and hone in on his craft. Just like many other teams do. I think Pep is a good offensive mind but he isn't that brilliant guy that this offense needs to take them (Over The Top). The team needs some guy who has done it and has done it well for quite awhile. The pieces are definitely in place for this offense to do great things next year from a player standpoint. Now go get it and Go Blue!!
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:56 PM ^
I put all the hawt takes in the same category as “the grass is always greener”
I’ve heard a lot of the “Air it out more” and “open up the offense” crap. Ok? Great. Just know when you do that, you are ready for more interceptions. Ones that could/will lead to a loss. We saw this happen last weekend. The ball was under thrown and picked off. It was the turning point in the game imho. All the coaches know football on a much higher level than us. There are reasons the games are called the way they are. Nobody hates losing more than Harbs and he will never settle for mediocre. There will be tinkering and retooling until he is happy. There has not been one offseason where he just stuck with what wasn’t working. Get a grip people. We gunna be alright. Just like we are with Belein.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:17 PM ^
You're absolutely correct.
We also need to have these things in our toolkit so that when our initial plan doesn't work, we have alternatives. Moreover, people are clamoring for this because next year's offense has a lot of pieces in place and that is what looks like the best way to use them.
January 3rd, 2019 at 12:18 AM ^
I don't think most people are saying this. I would LOVE to run the ball down people's throats. But the best offenses can take what the defense gives them. Give a good offense an unbalanced look and you will pay.
We try to establish the run at all costs even in the face of run blitzes and linebackers playing downhill. I think that Shea was very, very good at converting on 3rd down to keep drives alive. Look at all the times that he was 3rd and 7 or more yards this year and converted. But we have to stop putting him in this situation.
January 3rd, 2019 at 4:26 AM ^
Another Possible Turning Point of the Florida Game
Ronnie Bell takes the opening kickoff 32 yards, and but for an ankle tackle from behind, it looked like he might’ve gone all the way for a TD.
Shea Patterson opens with a 21-yard run before Chris Evans struggles to get one yard.
Now, the turning point. On a jet sweep, freshman Christian Turner turns the corner and runs 46 yards for a “score” – until replays show that one foot was out of bounds after he’d gained only eight yards. Then, Ben Mason, the guy who’s supposed to be the toughest guy on the team, runs into a wall on consecutive plays and Michigan turns the ball over on downs.
In hindsight, on a fake to Mason up the middle on fourth down, Shea Patterson might’ve been able to bootleg around the right side and either run or pitch to Chris Evans on his right for first-down yardage.
In fewer than two minutes elapsed on the game clock, Michigan’s offensive unit went from spirited jubilation to frustrated deflation in the course of 30 seconds of play. For the rest of that game, little seemed to go right for Michigan’s offense, including that deep pass to Nico Collins that turned into an interception. I keep thinking about how Michigan's offense might've opened up throughout the game IF, with 13:40 to play in the first quarter, Michigan had been leading 7-0 after a jet sweep had gone for a score.
January 3rd, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
Amen.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:33 PM ^
I can't argue with any of this.
I also don't matter.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:48 PM ^
Here's some random comments, because every Michigan fan could use a laugh.
ScooterMagruder, and things BIG10 fans DON'T say:
(skip his commercial at the beginning)
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:47 PM ^
Do you truly think the tOSU game plan was based on arrogance or was it possibly that they saw the weakness of the tOSU LB play all year and thought they could exploit this weakness? Even taking out the garbage time points UM scored, you still scored enough points to beat any team not named tOSU that you faced all year. The defensive game plan was exploited by a Heisman level QB and a receiving Corp that scored 50 td’s this year. UM made adjustments during the game despite the oft repeated mantra that they didn’t, they just couldn’t stop them. You are entitled to your thoughts and just because I disagree, it doesn’t mean you are wrong, but I can’t get to “arrogance” as being the cause of the L. Higdon didn’t have the speed to attack the peremiter and unlike earlier tOSU games this year they finally stopped playing the LB’s so close to the line of scrimmage which allowed them to flow to the ball. They also started to tackle which they hadn’t done much of the year
6. I thought the coaches showed this same arrogance in the uncreative game plans vs OSU/Florida that smacked of arrogance. The 2017 OSU game plan was VERY creative because we (correctly) assumed we were the underdog. The 2018 game plan seemed to assume that we were just the better team
January 3rd, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
All of these points, and not one regarding execution and player personnel. This system is taking time to develop with the right depth and talent for it.