Ceilings and Floors: All Good for UM
By running this last 3-game gauntlet, Michigan’s 2018 ceiling and floor have moved so far in the positive direction that this is likely going to conclude as the most satisfying season of the Harbaugh era, at minimum.
Ceiling: Win out, win B1GCC, get a favorable seed in the playoff that matches us up with ND or another interloper and not Clemson or Alabama. Not likely (we’ll probably be the 4 seed vs. one of those two), but that would give us a better chance to win the semifinal before likely losing a hard-fought title game. Obviously the ultimate ceiling is winning it all but the honest answer to “what’s our ceiling” is making the title game.
Floor: Win the next two, lose to OSU. If OSU gets left out of the playoff, they will probably get the Rose Bowl bid, but we are already a lock for an NY6 bowl and I like our chances against potential opponents in the Fiesta or Peach Bowl. UM vs. LSU in the Peach would be a lot of fun.
So 11-2 with a win in the NY6 would top 2015. Super-unlikely floor would be losing to Indiana and of course also possible would be sort of “matching” 2015 by losing that NY6 bowl.
In Between: There’s a high likelihood that our floor would actually be the Rose Bowl at minimum. If we beat OSU but somehow are left out of the playoff, we’d be in the Rose Bowl. If we lose to OSU, they likely make the playoff and we get the Rose Bowl (the B1GCC loser will NOT get it this year, with 3-4 losses, obviously). Even losing to Northwestern in the B1GCC would still put us in the Rose Bowl.
So a huge chunk of our “possible outcomes” pie chart is either the playoffs or the Rose Bowl, with a small slice of NY6 Bowl. It’s great to be a Michigan Wolverine!
November 4th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
Actually Speight had a strong 2016 overall. But he got hurt in the Iowa game and then missed the IU game, where O'Korn looked pretty bad. Going into OSU, Speight's status was a big question. If he wasn't going to play, it looked like we'd have little chance. I think it leaked out the day before that he'd play, but how healthy he was was unknown.
We were very close to having a totally different narrative for that season, one in which Speight fought through injury to lead us to a division-clinching win in Columbus.
November 4th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
We were about one inch from going to the playoff that year. We wrecked people before that Iowa game. It does seem like this team is peaking but the 2016 team was one or two plays from being one of the best Michigan teams in recent memory.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
We will be favored on paper over OSU, but that is a huge mental hurdle for the program and it will bring added pressure to an already insane hellhole stadium. If we win that game I will already consider this season a massive success. Revenge tour complete, notice served. Anything more is gravy. The trajectory of the program is obviously going up, and in keeping with the character of Michigan football tradition. Play loose. Play free. Play to win.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
But what about the WINDOWWWWW and the WALL (and the Wall)?
November 4th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
We are almost the same spot as 2016 and we don’t want it to end the same. Assuming we beat Rutgers and IU, we will be 10-1 going into Columbus with a chance to win and head to the Big Ten title game and playoff. That 10-3 finish was very unsatisfying. Need to avoid that this time around.
November 4th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
One scenario I haven't seen anyone mention is us losing to OSU but still making the BTCG. It would not surprise me one bit to see OSU lose to Sparty next week in EL. And, although we should be the favorite to beat OSU, certainly the Bucks could win that game. That would obviously leave us out of the playoffs, but as the only team in the B1G East with 1 loss. We then beat Northwestern to become B1G Champion and go the Rose Bowl.
November 4th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
Beat Rutgers.
November 4th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Preferably by 3 digits.
November 4th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
*Rutger
November 4th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
heh...I just looked this up...do you think that Coach Harbaugh would not relish playing in the national championship game in Santa Clara even a little bit...
...sheeesh, talk about a Revenge Tour
November 4th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
One interesting scenario that no one that I know of has mentioned - I have a strong feeling MSU might be playing OSU for the Rose Bowl birth this weekend.
MSU can win out and would finish 9-3 and trending up.
OSU by losing to MSU (and us) could also be 9-3 and trending down. OSU would also be 6-3 in the B1G and officially 3rd in the east.
The Spartans might be in the odd position of having to root for us vs OSU or drop from the Rose to the Outback as OSU would them be in the Rose and possibly Iowa or Wisconsin in the Citrus.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:06 AM ^
Do you guys consider OSU a big rival