Mathematical analysis: Michigan has a 81.45 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament
Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the 2013 National Championship. Yes, you heard right - the maths prove it:
Michigan's record by City's first letter:
A (Ann Arbor, Auburn Hills): 19-1 (95 percent)
B (Brooklyn, Bloomington): 1-1 (50 percent)
C (Columbus, Champaign, Chicago): 2-2 (50 percent)
E (Evanston, East Lansing): 1-1 (50 percent)
M (Minneapolis, Madison): 1-1 (50 percent)
N (New York City): 2-0 (100 percent)
P (Peoria): 1-0 (100 percent)
S (State College): 0-1 (0 percent)
W (West Lafayette): 1-0 (100 Percent)
Now, the south regional will be hosted in Arlington, Texas - which, incidentally, starts with an A. Therefore, Michigan has a 95 percent chance of winning each game, meaning they have a 90.25 (.95x.95) percent chance of winning the region and heading to the final four....in Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta, it also starts with an A.
The Wolverines will then have a 85.74 (.9025 x.95) percent chance of advancing to the title game and a 81.45 (.8574 x .95) percent chance of winning the National Title!
Hooray! And even though it worked in '89, thank God the Final Four isn't in Seattle. We'd have no shot based on these advanced statistics. Take that, Mathlete!
Downvoters be damned, I'm not letting your collective lack of humor get me out of the happy zone.
Edited to add West Lafayette, somehow I forgot to add that to the list the first go around.
What will you do with all your bracket pool winnings?
us get by KU and move forward? If we force an up-tempo style against Kansas, everybody keeps saying how VCU style played right into our strength, well let's use that strength.
If we win and face Florida and they like to press too and that would be good for us. If FGCU wins, I think their run would end against us in a bad way for them as our talent would overcome them especially with them liking an up-tempo style too, just perfect....the key is getting past KU.
Hi, I'm Blazefire. You may remember me from drunk math posts like "How hot is Denard - A Scientific Inquiry".
I'm here today to let you know that I support this post. Remember, it's math you can trust because it's alcohol driven!
I believe it
My head. Hurts. Too many numbers.
If we can figure out how to move the finals to Addis Ababa, we are a lock!
I not a math wizard, but this seems completely sound and not at all subject to ridicule. Kudos, Sir. I shall now celebrate with 7 mugs of grain alcohol. And 1 tequila sunrise.
...and in the time it took me to just lay out the comprehensive, 256-line table of possible Elite Eight matchups (forget further rounds for a moment) and their relative probabilities, Butterfield goes and devises a better math. Well done indeed, sir. I actually enjoy your results and method much better than mine:
my god you're an idiot.
Math checks out to me.
IT'S POSTS LIKE THIS THAT REMIND ME WHY I READ MGOBLOG!!!!1! GREAT WORK!!!
March 25th, 2013 at 10:46 PM ^
we need to increase the create a thread point total to 2000...
March 26th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^
Sense of humor - I recommend trying it sometime.