Unverified Voracity Tried Unplugging It Comment Count

Brian

600full-the-shining-screenshot[1]

Hey, kids! Death to Comcast! No internet until just now today and my backup plan wasn't working. Apologies. Anyway:

Maybe you can do it after all? Luke Winn is my favorite college basketball writer for pieces like the one he just published on three-point defense. Inspired by Ken Pomeroy's repeated assertions that three-point defense is random* and that you should therefore try to reduce the number of threes opponents get off, Winn looks at the problem in more detail, finding a couple of notable exceptions:

After writing a story on the Pack-Line Defense -- a packed-in, help-oriented man-to-man that Dick Bennett first used at Wisconsin-Green Bay in the mid-1990s -- I couldn't help but notice that three teams running pure Pack-Line this season were among the leaders in three-point field-goal D: Arizona, which ranked third nationally at 28.5 percent; Virginia, which was sixth at 28.9 percent; and Xavier, which was 22nd at 30.5 percent. Meanwhile, two teams that seemed to encourage opponents to take threes, Florida State and Syracuse, also managed to rank in the top 50 in defensive three-point percentage and were top-20 overall defenses in efficiency.

Syracuse in particular demonstrates that three-point defense probably exists in a meaningful way. In the ten years Kenpom has data for Syracuse has finished 8th (out of about 350), 6th, 63rd, 129th, 63rd, 185th, 8th, 22nd, 29th, and 47th in defending three pointers. That's one or two mediocre years, three good years, and five outstanding years. Clearly there's a lot more variance in three pointers**, but you can defend them. There may be a price (Syracuse, unbelievably, was 341 of 345 in defensive rebounding while being 33rd in offensive rebounding), but you can do it.

Also, this is why you are right to pull out your hair at Tim Hardaway long twos:

If you don't think the long twos-vs.-threes argument is important, consider this: While Wisconsin held its opponents to just 0.807 points per possession on three-point attempts -- an amazingly efficient rate -- it allowed just 0.628 PPP on long twos. There's a reason Ryan charts and cherishes the two-point jumpers UW forces outside the paint. The odds on getting beat from that area are miniscule.

Long twos are the worst shot in basketball, and you can get them with 25 seconds on the shot clock because teams don't care if you take them. If there's ten seconds left, sure, go for it. Eschewing the offense in favor of The Worst Shot In Basketball makes Brian crazy.

*[If you look at shooting percentages from the first half to the second half of a season, there is almost no correlation. I think this might be a sample size issue.]

**[Variance for the statistically disinclined: imagine the difference in variability in 50-point 30-foot Rock 'n' Jock baskets versus dunks.]

Feel the love for the system. The Insight Bowl is no longer going to be named after some sort of computer company I think or an abstract concept. They made the mistake of asking the twitter what the twitter thought they might rename it to. If this feels like a softball covered in butter, yeah:

The Tempe Municipal Government Cheddar's Casual Cafe' Quality Food & Service Bowl, at Sun Devil Stadium #NameTheGame

i want a bowl game called the Horrybowl. someone ask Robert Horry if he's interested in starting a liability-only car insurance company.

Jason Kirk's list of suggestions has some excellent candidates:

Molybdenum Ore Bowl
Insane Maricopa County Sheriff Bowl
P.F. Chang's Rock 'n' Roll Arizona Marathon & 1/2 Marathon Bowl

Erosion of public support due to shameless profit-seeking, etc etc etc. This is definitely a meaningful indicator of bowls' public face and not just the internet snarking on stuff.

Basically. Via Ira at WTKA, former Alaska-Anchorage player Justin Bourne responds to a piece on the superiority of the major junior route:

As someone quickly approaching their 30th birthday thinking about what I’d do if I were a young player now deciding between the two, I can’t help but think: I’d have to be awfully damn good to choose major junior hockey over college. It’s not taking anything away from those who choose to go the CHL route, it’s just that one way seems a little more all-or-nothing than the other. Both seem like flying down the highway on a motorcycle, but one affords you a helmet. …

Nobody can say for certain what’s the best route – each player has a different set of developmental needs, and each league fulfills those differently.

But for those who could use a little more time to develop and miiiigghht just want to hedge their bets on the future with an education, college hockey is the way to go.

That's about right. If you're not going to be in the top two rounds, junior is a gamble on a longshot when there's a less risky route that doesn't require you to give up the gamble, or even seem to hurt your chances much. Given the NHL hit rate of secound-rounders, you could argue that even those folks would be making a better decision to go to college.

Unless you just don't want even the tenuous amount of schooling you have to go through to be in college these days, the best argument in favor of the CHL is usually "they offered me money." If so, fair enough.

I would like to see the man behind the curtain, because there is only one. Michigan is investing a cool half-million into a giant curtain they can put in Crisler when it hosts women's basketball and gymnastics events so that the place feels less abandoned. Michigan averaged about 1700 fans per game at basketball last year.

It's probably the right thing to do, but putting up a curtain so attendance at certain sports is less embarrassing is… well, it kind of sums up the whole NCAA thing. The football players make a bunch of money, which is then spent on the strangest things.

Demar lands somewhere nice. Demar Dorsey will play his college ball at Hawaii, so at least he got an adventure out of everything. No, he's not coming here. I just told you he's going to play at Hawaii. No, still not coming. I am beginning to think you have the brain damage.

Etc.: Big Ten hockey hires Steve Piotrowski as its head of officials, which is a good move. Better move would be to clone him and put him on the ice for all games. Piotrowski #1 would be a super Piotrowksi. Dennis Norfleet gets really excited when he blocks a shot, understandably. SBN is making the case for relegation.

NO DEMAR DORSEY IS NOT COMING TO MICHIGAN

Comments

French West Indian

May 16th, 2012 at 6:21 PM ^

...the women's team even need to use Crisler if it is too big?  Why not just put their games in a smaller venue like Yost?

Other Chris

May 16th, 2012 at 8:24 PM ^

That gymnastics, basketball, and ice hockey are all the same season? The logistics would be impossible, and redoing the ice that often would likely cost more that $500,000.

And men's gymnastics and wrestling are in Cliff Keen, so that's already booked as well.

cobra14

May 16th, 2012 at 9:41 PM ^

What you have to understand about the Packline defense is the "Closeout" is stressed more than anything. So even though everyone is packed in off the ball once the ball is swung to their man they must get "High Hands" and contest any shot.  There is also a "Heat up Line" that the players know they must guard their man at. Usually 2-3 feet outside the 3pt line. These two rules lead to a lower FG %. Sean Miller ran it at both Xavier and Zona and Coach Mack has continued it at Xavier. You will hear Sean Miller say High hands 600 times a game. Of course there is a ton more. If anyone has any interest in hearing it let me know.

 

cobra14

May 17th, 2012 at 8:53 AM ^

Inside the 3pt line would be closer to the basket. outside the 3pt line would be beyond it. I probably should have used beyond. That is why its called the "Heat up Line'. This is where an offensive player might shoot a 3 thus must be guarded. Anything beyond that Heat up Line they will not guard. 

NateVolk

May 16th, 2012 at 10:45 PM ^

All things being equal for the average player, the further the ball has to travel the less chance it has of going in. Coaches like Bob Knight would wholeheartedly disagree that a two that is open is worse than a three a couple feet back that is also open. Guy has won some games in his day.

 

dharmabum

May 16th, 2012 at 11:58 PM ^

I think the point is that the expected value of a long two is lower than the expected value of a three, because the make percentage doesn't go up enough by taking one step forward to justify the decrease in reward for success. If you make 36% of long twos the expected point value of every shot is 0.7; if you make 32% of three pointers the expected value is 0.96. If that's the case and you go possession for possesion, the team taking the threes will win most of the time.