Effect of Commitments Rcvd on Remaining Offers
With 11 commitments received, plus Morris as a QB in 2013, we appear to be halfway home, assuming room for 22 incoming freshmen in 2012. There has been speculation that the fact slots have been filling up has caused some recruits to commit now, in order to lock in a scholarship and a slot. It appears this may be affecting Terry Richardson.
I am curious how the current commitments are affecting both outstanding offers (whether we're pulling offers already made,) and causing others to make a commitment. I'm also trying to gauge how the remaining slots are filled.
- OL: we have two commitments, four more expected.
- QB: none, one expected (could Hoke gamble with 3 QB, and one coming in 2013?)
- RB: no commitments, none expected.
- FB: no commitments, none expeccted.
- WR: no commitments, two expected.
- TE: two commitments, any more? What is happening with Thompson?
- DE: two commitments, any more?
- DT: one commitment, one more.
- LB: four commitments, no more.
- CB: no commitments, one expected.
- S: No commitments, one expected.
- One extra, reserve for best athlete, any position (say, Dunn?)
This would give us a total of 22 commitments, and the following breakdown:
- OL: Six
- QB: One
- RB: None
- FB: None
- WR: Two
- TE: Two
- DE: Two
- DT: Two
- LB: Four
- CB: One
- S: One
- Wildcard: One
With the exception of the Offensive Line, and maybe Wide Receiver, the pressure seems to be growing on potential recruits to make a commitment, if you want to be at Michigan in the Fall of 2012.
Is there anyone other than Richardson who we expect to hear from soon? Are there offers we are now slow playing or pulling off the table because things are getting tight? Is the breakdown by position off? Which positions is Michigan strong enough at that it can afford to accept only the best (for example, either accepting Dunn as RB or no one at all.)
I agree with this. In addition, since we'll only take one WR in this class, it will probably be a good one, and WR is a position where a highly rated guy can come in and contribute right off the bat if necessary. We won't need a guy to come in and start, we'd just need a guy to come in and play 5-10 snaps a game, maybe get 1-2 catches a game. If he's good and can do more, that's great. But in 2012, Roundtree and Stokes will likely be the starters, with the other three rotating through.
In addition for the increased emphasis on the TE (who we might see split out on a few plays) we'll also see RBs running routes out of the backfield. We could also see guys like Justice Hayes lining up at WR in certain sets, or if we need him to.
EDIT: Another guy who people often forget (myself included) is Baquer Sayed. He's a walk-on, but he's a guy who got a decent ranking by the services and scholarship offers from most of the MAC. He's not a guy you want to rely on, but he has a good shot at being the #3 or #4 WR in 2012 and beyond (he'll be a RS soph in 2012). He's got good size, great hands and great leaping ability to go along with adequate size. His ceiling is a player like Greg Mathews.
Just my opinion, but I don't think we take a FB this class. LB to FB isn't an overly difficult transition, and we'll be very heavy at LB after this class (Desmond Morgan to FB??). I also think we will take at least one more TE, especially if Borges runs a decent amount of double-tight (anyone know if this is true?). As for DT, I'd personally be surprised if we didn't take at least two more, unless both Ash and Washington are looking really solid. OL we need to build depth, the obvious RS, etc, so I see 4 more here. Also, am I the only one concerned about WR in 2013?
2013 is way too far away to get worried about a position like WR where a guy can come in and contribute early. Jackson, Robinson and Dileo will still be here, we'll likely get one highly rated guy in this class, and I bet we get two bigger time prospect in the 2013 class based on depth, at least one of which will come in and be a major contributor as a true frosh. I wouldn't worry about it yet.
Freshmen can come in and contribute immediately at WR, RB, and CB. I'm really not concerned about the WR position's depth. I'd still like to get a good one, but there's not much reason to take a receiver just because he's a receiver.
What's your definition of major contributor as a true frosh wr?
It's not unprecedented for a true frosh at wr to see the field, but making a huge impact with stats is a rare occurence. Now granted in the past UM used to have pretty solid, experienced upperclassmen they had to beat out which might not be the case in 2013.
The other thing to remember - barring a Denard redshirt more than likely UM will be having a QB starting in his first year in 2013. As solid as Gardner has appeared and as bright a future as it looks like he might have, I'm guessing they're still be an adjustment period for him on saturdays.
Well, Odoms was pretty good as a freshman (although he had crappy quarterbacks). Roundtree was good as a redshirt freshman once he got on the field in the last third of the season. Mario Manningham was pretty good as a freshman.
None of them blew anyone out of the water, but they were all solid players at young ages in the last six years.
Major contributor is anything from 10 or so snaps a game to half the snaps and a few catches a game. That's very doable for a true frosh WR, especially if there's not a lot of depth ahead of him. Stonum, for example, had catches in 9 games are a true frosh, and something close to 200 yards. Not huge numbers, but a contributor for certain. That's all we'd need.
I think we need at least one more DE, and two or three DT. We have no depth on the DL, and are going back to a 4-3 base.