Recruiting Projections: Too few spots left?
I have seen a lot of peoples "wish lists" and projected class of 2012 threads here and at other Michigan Blogs. The main question I have is at what point do we start making some our offers non-committable ones like other schools sometimes do. Right now we have 10 commits. My best guess and general consensus around here seems to say we will end up with a class of around 20-22 with attrition, but right now it is at 18 assuming a D.J. Williamson transfer.
Here is my problem though, every time I add up what I believe would give us my projected class I end up with right around 23 spots. I can't seem to get down below 23 no matter how I do it. This is where I am at right now:
1 QB - I am of the believe you must take a QB every year. Period.
1 RB - Hoke said he wants a RB every year and between Dunn and Garmon we are in on some very good backs.
1 WR - I think we need at least 1 receiver in this class. Honestly I could see us taking 2 but because we aren't offering very many and the best possibilities being Stanford and Burbridge I think we are planning on only taking 1 this year.
2 TE - Everyone thinks Ron Thompson is almost a Michigan Lock but unless this staff is counting Williams towards the 6 OL they have been said to want i don't think we have room for him. It is very possible that Williams is an OL recruit though.
6 OL - The staff has stated they want 6 OL and this is a major position of need. We have either 2 or 3 already, with names like Diamond, Denman, Banner, and Simmons on the top of my offer list.
4 DE - This is the position where I may be high at 4 DE. The real number may be 3, but with the two commits from MO and Brown yesterday, I have trouble believing that if we do in fact land Wormley as I hope we do, that we would not keep recruiting the likes of Washington, Strobel, Pittman and Spence hard. These are all highly touted Ohio and PA prospects and some of them have expressed interest in Michigan quite recently.
2 DT - Opposite to the DE position I may be low here. With Godin and Day expected to be major Michigan leans, or one even a silent commit, this puts us at 2 easily. If this is the case would Pipkins be left out of this class? This may be a case of we will take 4 DE and 2 DT or 3 or each depending on who commits first.
4 LB - Full
1 CB - We need a CB and there seems to be a lot of players who have interest in Michigan, Richardson would be the name that I would save a spot for at this point.
1 S - Lots of names to fill this spot at either DB position but I do believe we will take a total of 2 DB's especially with the recent offers to Foster and Standifer.
This give us 23 total.
The major point of this thread is to ask at what point do the coaches become extremely selective in who is able to commit. I don't love the idea of pulling offers but at this point it seems as though we are filling this class fast and can't accept everyone. I personally would like to see the coaches go hard after the big time players at this point. It is still very early in the recruiting cycle though so I was curious what everyone else thought.
Thanks this is what I was looking for with this thread. I like how you split up the DE's I am going to make that change to my updated list. My only problem with your list is your lack of OL, if Williams is OL then I believe we need 6 with our lack of depth at this position. I also think if we miss on the big time running backs then we won't take one but I personally like our standing with a few very good ones and Hoke has stated he will take 1 RB every year. I honestly think Thompson would be left out before a RB will be. If we take Thompson, I think either Funchess is a WR and we will take 2 WR's or Williams is a OL and we will take 6.
I appreciate your thread but I don't really think anyone can give you an answer that you will like. When someone suggests that we won't take a QB, you reply, "we have to take a QB." Then someone says we'll only take 5 OL instead of six and you say "we have to take 6."
Recruiting requires flexibility. I suspect something will happen in this class that you don't expect. Maybe we won't take a QB because Hoke decides he'd rather have a 5 Star RB or a 5 Star OL, DT, WR, CB, S, or DE than a 3 Star QB. Maybe Hoke will decide several of the following players with fifth year eligibilty won't be invited back:
- Cox
- Robinson
- Roundtree
- Moore
- Barnum
- Mealer
- Omameh
- Khoury
- Demens
- Kovacs
- Floyd
- Morales
The point is, the staff may prefer to fill certain positions but the finish the class differently than they would have planned. If we reach the point where we have elite players who want to come, I doubt they would be turned away.
I didn't mean to say anyone is wrong as this is all speculation at this point. I just wanted to hear peoples opinions and share what I think to combine a good idea of what everyone thinks. I agree with you that overall its too hard to tell, but I'm glad that the general consensus agrees with me that we should become a bit more selective and that no matter what no elite players should be turned away. Thanks umhero you were one of the people I was most interested to hear feedback from.
Maybe we're being a bit myopic here. Looking at just the upcoming year rather than the next two years. I know there's no such thing as a "lock" when it comes to recruits, but each year one can project where the talent will be, what the needs are, etc. For example, if this is a great RB year then our odds are better taking one now rather than waiting until the following year. I suppose this philosophy might be similar to the NFL draft (e.g. do you draft need or best available) - obviously, though, we can't fill needs with free agents...
5th year. But this is ages from being an issue.
Your analysis is good and we all would like to sit on five stars, but our needs at both DT and OT are glaring so the #1 priority at this point is securing a few of those big bodies. Day, Pipkins and hopefully O'Brien would be the ideal DT trifecta. Diamond plus another top OT will do the trick particularly if Williams grows into a tackle - and he will be playing tackle his senior year...... which leads me to believe that we will take Thompson as the only true dedicated TE in the class (Funchess being a hybred).
Your analysis is good and we all would like to sit on five stars, but our needs at both DT and OT are glaring so the #1 priority at this point is securing a few of those big bodies. Day, Pipkins and hopefully O'Brien would be the ideal DT trifecta. Diamond plus another top OT will do the trick particularly if Williams grows into a tackle - and he will be playing tackle his senior year...... which leads me to believe that we will take Thompson as the only true dedicated TE in the class (Funchess being a hybred).
I agree with you 100%. The only way I would make changes is if we get somebody who is a 5* who wants to commit. Then you re prioritize your needs. Also, if Thompson does commit to us I would leave the TE as is and add that spot somewhere else.
FWIW I thought I'd let everyone know that Renaldo Sagesse was drafted by the Montreal Alouettes in the CFL draft. He was the second pick of the fourth round and the 25th pick overall. The Alouettes are the two time defending Grey Cup Champions.
Assuming the rest of your list is accurate, I could easily imagine the coaches taking just 5 offensive linement (not 6) or 3 defensive ends (not 4), and that would get them to your presumed 22.
I could also envision different priorities among the remaining positions. Ideally, you'd like to take at least one player in every class at every non-kicker position. But with several good cornerback prospects entering as freshmen this year,the position isn’t an urgent need in 2012.
Obviously, if you look at the number of offers out there, it is very clear that some will be pulled. Any offers at this point are non-binding anyway, and the coaches have put out many more than they could possibly accept. Players are aware that offers are provisional, and are liable to be pulled if someone else takes the slot. Coaches also have other ways of giving the cold shoulder to players they no longer want, without formally rescinding the offer.
Verbal commit, coaches can say no. As players who commit 1 year and 3 months early can?
I don't think Michigan will take 6 OL this year - I think 4-5 is a more reasonable number. How the numbers work out, I don't think we NEED 6 this year, and that will probably only happen if we get 4 blue chippers. I'm thinking we take 4 OL this year (plus Williams) and take Thompson at TE.
The coaching staff has told recruits (particularly Ben Braden) that they plan to take 6 offensive linemen this year.
Four isn't enough. Once these class of 2012 offensive linemen finish redshirting during their freshman season (2012), the only scholarship offensive linemen scheduled to be on the roster in 2013 will be redshirt senior Taylor Lewan, redshirt senior Michael Schofield, redshirt junior Christian Pace, redshirt sophomore Jack Miller, redshirt sophomore Tony Posada, and redshirt sophomore Chris Bryant. That's 2 tackles, 2 guards, and 2 centers.
That's a starting offensive line, a backup center, and then your redshirt freshmen (Braden, Stacey, and whoever else we sign in February). That's a recipe for disaster.
In this recruiting class, we need lineman .. both sides.
That's more important than any position.
But we can't do that our commits come in pairs. We can't take only one qb and one rb we need them in pairs
speaking of pairs. I like the pair on your avatar.
for all of the well thought out projections. But we'll never know anything for certain until Feb 2012 thanks for that capt obvious.. We have no idea what the coaches are looking at to make this recruiting class work for Michigan. And who knows what is really in the heart of 17-18 yo guys looking for the best situation for their college and or NFL future. Both schemas can be very fluid.
So don't fall in love with any of these recruits just yet, Don't write your projections in ink just yet. Buckle up hold on get your popcorn and .
Just example tuu small sample size I know but, Zettle life long Micigan fan. It was assumed he would be Michigans to lose, But early in his recruitment during an interview he said he was highly interested in and really waiting on an offer from PSU, as soon as he got that offer Michigan was fighting uphill against PSU. In hind sight we can speculate that he loved Penn St. all along and kept the crazy fans off his back with a knod to Michigan. ahh the hearts of 18 year olds.
The recruiting services and gurus are told and can aquire info that is kept off the record. Who is the soft commit on your list? Whos' looking around at a sitiuation that can develop into a more favorable situation else where.
enjoy the ride
What's the scoop with Godin? I heard he may be the silent commit, and have heard nothing about him since.
Would it make sense to leave the title section blank for comments where the commenter doesn't give a title? That would be opposed to the system we have now, where the first 6 or so words from the body of the comment are supplied for the title. It seems that about half of all mgobloggers use a title, so it can get confusing (i.e. Sometimes I won't read the title, and the rest of the comment wont make sense. Other times, I will read the title, but it will just be a repeat of the first part of the comment.) My best case senario would be to do away with comment titles altogether, but it seems to me that it would make the most sense to just keep the title section blank if the commenter doesnt supply one.
If I were King...assuming 23 spots available I see 21 we have to set aside for positions.
QB: 1 - Have to take one
OL: 5 - Whether you include Williams or not
TE: 2 - Whether you include Williams or not
WR: 2 - Depth chart scares me
DT: 2
DE: 3
LB: 4 - Full
CB: 1
S: 1
That leaves two scholarships for the best talent regardless of position. Don't think I'd look any further at LB though. Personally I would like to see them spent on another DB, or if possible, a stud RB.
I like this lay out, but again this is 23 and its very possible that we do not get to 23. I like the idea of extra slots to allow for a solid pickup at any position.
Are any of 2011 and/or 2012 LB's possible of transitioning to a DE? With bulk what is the possibility that one or more become rush DE's that can drop in space etc.?
No not likely, actually Mario Ojemudia would be more likely to become a LB than any of our LB's are to become DE's in a normal recruiting class.
I'm pretty sure Williams said that he was recruited as a TE. That doesn't meant that he won't grow into being an OL someday, but I don't think the coaches consider him one now.
RB has to be the position that most likely isn't filled. It seems safe to say that it's a five-star guy or bust.
Funchess's committment decreases the need for a WR to some extent, but Michigan looks like they will be pretty underwhelming at that position after this year. It would be very nice to add a top guy.
The coaches have said they'll take 6 OL, and I think Michigan needs that many - not counting Williams.
Michigan is going to go into this season only two unlucky plays from having to start a true freshman, three-star QB. It's the most important position on a team. They have to take a QB this year.
I think the team probably needs DTs more than DEs. Godin and Wormely would give them some flexibility here, though, as those guys might be able to play both positions. OSU recruiting-watchers sometimes compare Wormely to Cameron Heyward, FWIW, who could play both DE and DT.
This recruiting season for Michigan is a great example of what an advantage it is for SEC schools to over-sign. Michigan looks like it will get pinched at WR or DB this year, whereas Alabama wouldn't because the necessary number of guys would magically suffer career-ending injuries.
Lot of talk here about "hitting for the fences" at RB. Would be great if we got Bri'onte or G-Garmon, but like I'Tavius Mathers more. But unfortunetly not much chatter here on I'Tavius (sounds like the SEC is making its move for him).
He basically lives down the road from me... Let's see what I can do to get him to head up north... Lol.
but it doesn't hurt to dream. There is some trade off going on for talent vs. need. At some point Hoke needs to prioritize for beef. We need big guys.
New commit this week according to Chris Barnett
Godin seems like a good bet to be the commit this week. Thompson is next? The third would be...?
It can be two, or four. And they have to play the same position.
These are the rules of New Quahog.
You don't hear about this kid on this site enough.
CB Anthony Standifer is visiting Michigan on Thursday. Could he be talking about him ?.
I doubt CB is recruiting low profile guys
Is the one he is sure about. The other two? No idea. Pike and Dunn pls. If not them, Wormley and Burbridge pls. Obviously the first won't happen, and the second probably won't (more Burbridge than Wormley), but I can dream.
right?...did this change?
Every year this is a concern on the message boards. It always works itself out.
Not really. We're in this position on the Dline and Oline (and will be very, very young there in a few years) precisely because it doesn't always work out. Sometimes the coaching staff decides to spend 5 scholarships on receivers in one year while simultaneously getting 3 Olinemen and no nose tackles over two years.
I'm talking about the hypothetical concern of us running out of scholarships with a bunch of superstars still on the board. That basically never happens. We'll probably get our final commitment on or right before signing day, as always.
All I'm saying is that we took 4 LB's . . . . again. We need D-lineman and for that matter O-lineman as well and unless there are atleast 2-3 more kids planning on leaving AA we are going to be missing out on a couple really good and NEEDED lineman. Not mad at Hoke for taking 4 LB's but ahhhh MM, RVB, DM, and MH all of whom are starters will be gone next year. I understand the 4 LB's especially with Ross being the last one to pull the trigger. No matter what position it is you have to always make room for the presumably top player in your state.
Also I think that the commits this last weekend were great, I just wonder where this puts us with more lineman. Godin will most likely go Blue this week but he seems to be a not as good Wormley, Washington, or Pittman IF he is a Strong end position. If he is a DT I hope he is one of 3 we take getting Day and either O'Brien, Jaleel Johnson, or Pipkins. Dont get me wrong I hope Godin does go Blue I'm just curious about where he plays and how that impacts our needs elsewhere.
I'm sure Hoke has a plan . . . right?? RIGHT!!
I just saw on his tweeter that he told ringer, we have 12 commits in the class. I think Godin is one, but who is the other?
I'd be surprised if we don't lose a tailback or two by then end of the fall. In a perfect world Wille comes in and kicks lights out , then the other scholarship place kickers get home sick
We'd have 20-23 scholarships available this year. If nobody else decides to leave and all we have is the 17 we have now. Then what? We have 10 commits already. That leaves us only 7 spots left. I know the concensus is that we will have 20 spots, but that's not guaranteed. How do you use the ramining 7 if that is all we end up having?
seems we are over stocked now at LB as we were during RR regime with Wide Outs'
I see a few of them bolting a year or two down the road
Right.
JB Fitzgerald and Marell Evans will bolt after 2011.
Kenny Demens will bolt after 2012.
The coaches are aware of the number of linebackers they have on the roster. They'll figure out what to do with the numbers.