national champs baby
pedro441
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- Member for
- 3 years 34 weeks
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Recent Comments
| Date | Title | Body |
|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks 5 days ago | Expected Value of Wins |
The way I see it, the expected value of # of wins is around 8.4. For those with rosier outlooks, where should I put the extra probability?
Game Probability of M win
Central Mich. 0.95
Notre Dame 0.45
Akron 0.99
at Connecticut 0.9
bye
Minnesota 0.9
at Penn State 0.65
Indiana 0.9
bye
at MSU 0.6
Nebraska 0.65
at Northwestern 0.6
at Iowa 0.8
Ohio State 0.4
Sum 8.39 |
| 20 weeks 1 day ago | Estimated Win Probabilities |
Here are the probabilities I'm thinking now:
Central Mich. 0.95
Notre Dame 0.45
Akron 0.95
at Connecticut 0.8
Minnesota 0.8
at Penn State 0.6
Indiana 0.8
at Michigan State 0.55
Nebraska 0.65
at Northwestern 0.7
at Iowa 0.75
Ohio State 0.4
Only 2 predicted losses, but it sums to 8.0.
I think the total will be a bit higher than 8. I'd like to get it up to the 9.5 region, but I'm struggling with where to put the increases. Anyone with thoughts? |
| 30 weeks 8 hours ago | Yeah that and I'm a sucker |
Yeah that and I'm a sucker for a brand name like "Huskers Defense" no matter how tarnished it might be. |
| 30 weeks 1 day ago | Ominous Warning |
Brian is pretty down on the offense. We'll see what comes out in the UFR tomorrow. I can't say I disagree, but I'm still sticking with 55% chance we win this game. I think 24 points will do it.
EDIT: "This game" meaning the upcoming game against Nebraska |
| 3 years 14 weeks ago | Sinking feeling? |
It sounds like a great feeling to me. I'm not sure what is so bad about a bunch of fast kids turning things around. And if they can do anything like the Fab Five did that would be great. Unless you're worried that these new kids are on the take? Or maybe dreadlocks aren't your thing? |
| 3 years 34 weeks ago | OSU >? PSU |
I'd say the Ohio State resume is more impressive than Penn State's. But I agree they ought to be close. |
